[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091829 
ILZ000-MOZ000-092000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IL WWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091829Z - 092000Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM NW OF UIN SWWD TO N OF SZL. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND
70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON /OWING TO CONTINUED
ISOLATION/ WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED ON THE WINCHESTER IL PROFILER
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 08/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX...

39869269 40249066 40059006 39529033 38969226 38459392
39009414 

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