[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091803 COR
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091803Z - 091930Z

CORRECTED FOR HEADER

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z.  A WW
APPEARS LIKELY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN
CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS
CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. 
THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA
MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 

AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1
KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC.  GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN
ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z.  STRONG
INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. 
WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS.  

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR
VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S.

..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418
37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219 

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