[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091553 
MIZ000-WIZ000-091730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WI AND THE WRN UP OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091553Z - 091730Z

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR 
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL WI /W OF
AUW AND VOK/ TO ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR DVN. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 60-65F...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM VORTICITY LOBE ATTENDANT TO UPPER LOW
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WRN WI.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
COLD FRONT AS THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF
40-45KTS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SUPERCELLS/. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUOYANT LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
/I.E. 0-3KM MLCAPES OF 100-150 J/KG/ AND LOCAL BACKING OF WINDS NEAR
SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 08/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

44548974 45328953 46498893 46938807 46518711 44828745
43458811 42718841 42988989 43798996 

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