[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082102 
MNZ000-NDZ000-082230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719...

VALID 082102Z - 082230Z

STORMS APPEAR TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WW AREA
BENEATH UPPER LOW...WITHIN SURFACE CONFLUENT ZONES.  LINE OF
CONVECTION NOW E OF RED RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF
WW...THUS ADDITIONAL WW OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED INTO
NWRN MN. 

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG
OVER SERN ND AND NWRN MN.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG VORTICITY
WITHIN THE COLUMN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE BRIEF
TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

46149625 46769839 47119906 48279909 49009926 49009501
46049398 

WWWW