[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081805 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-081900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NRN KS/ EXTREME NWRN MO/SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081805Z - 081900Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...NRN KS...SWRN IA AND
NWRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. 

STRONG INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO MID 80S ACROSS NRN KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WHERE MLCAPES
WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS WEAKENING AND CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
BETWEEN HLC AND LNK. OTHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR A
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR FSD TO AIA.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK AS A SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH NLY WINDS NORTH OF IT...IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF OMA TO LBF. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY
BACKED AT SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS SITES IN NRN KS... SUGGESTING
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SRN NEB. ONCE
SURFACE BASE STORMS DEVELOP...WHICH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 200-300 PM
CDT...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

..IMY.. 08/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

40230087 40939918 41499718 41879556 40169447 39069560
38599800 38430055 38990141 

WWWW