[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081737 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081737Z - 081900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  A WW COULD BE
REQUIRED.

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ND CONTINUES MOVING EWD. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -17
C.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW IS VEERING...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S
F.  COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S F...THIS WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL.

WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW...BUT STRONG FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BE RATHER LONG LIVED.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES OVER SRN ND AND NRN SD...UNDERNEATH COMPACT
MID LEVEL JET STREAK.  THEREFORE...BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN ND...EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...DEGREE OF AMBIENT
VORTICITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED...BRIEF
TORNADOES CANOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

48999606 47149518 45639491 45629656 45629858 47019895
48379973 49010012 

WWWW