[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080800 
NEZ000-080930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080800Z - 080930Z

ISOLATED HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS /THROUGH 10-11Z/.

AREA WIND PROFILERS AND VAD WIND DATA SHOW A 25-30 KT SWLY LLJ
NOSING INTO CENTRAL NEB.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN NEB EXTENDED FROM NERN NEB SWWD TO BUB
AND THEN WWD TO NEAR 20 SW MHN.  ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL AID IN A
CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
SUSTAIN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE W AND NW OF THE STRONGEST STORM
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN HOLT COUNTY.

ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION.  BASED ON THE 03Z/06Z RUC...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AS IT VEERS WLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-4
HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING.

..PETERS.. 08/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

42459849 42709746 41339666 40829824 40820020 41510134
42790136 42859919 

WWWW