[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041831 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-042030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL PA / SRN OH / WV / MD PANHANDLE /
NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 706...

VALID 041831Z - 042030Z

BROKEN LINE OF STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD AT NEAR 40 KT INTO WRN PA / NWRN WV.  SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES...WITH NEW WW LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL
PA / ERN WV / WRN MD / NRN VA.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE E OF BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
CROSSING THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
INDICATED INTO S CENTRAL PA / WV AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG INTO NRN VA. 
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- AS
MCS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS PA WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAKER...MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS
INTO NRN VA -- SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS / HAIL MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS FAR S AS NRN
VA.

THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE PARTS OF WW 706 AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH NEW WW LIKELY REQUIRED E OF THIS WATCH.

..GOSS.. 08/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

41167886 41267824 40977744 40117710 38287825 38378406
38938338 39248117 40378021 

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