[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032334 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-040100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698...

VALID 032334Z - 040100Z

VERY DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO NWRN IL 
THROUGH 01Z.

A STRONG MESOCYCLONE HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF ALO AND WAS AIDING
IN THE THUNDERSTORM LINE TO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO.  GIVEN THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE BOW ECHO IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ESEWD AT 50-60 MPH. THIS FAST MOTION PLUS
FORE MENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS GREATER
THAN 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOW. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES BOW
ECHO FROM WEST OF DBQ TO EAST OF CID AROUND 00Z AND NEAR THE IL/IA
BORDER FROM NEAR DBQ TO MLI AROUND 01Z.

..IMY.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

40669405 42189288 42809221 42758950 40788954 40739092 

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