[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031622 
ILZ000-MOZ000-031745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL AND ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695...

VALID 031622Z - 031745Z

WW 695 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS ERN MO/WRN IL. DECREASING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY NECESSITATE WATCH CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 19Z.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AT 1610Z...SMALL MCS CONTINUES 330/35KT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STL
METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SYSTEM IS TRACKING AROUND
NERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
DESPITE PRESENCE OF MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SUBSIDENCE ON AREA RUC SOUNDINGS AND WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES /+12C/ ARE INHIBITING UPDRAFT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.
LEADING THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG A NE-SW AXIS FROM JERSEY
COUNTY IL TO ERN WARREN COUNTY MO ARE ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE UNLIKELY
TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM. CONTINUED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY MAY NECESSITATE CANCELLATION OF WW PRIOR TO 19Z. ONE
CAVEAT WOULD BE IF CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS FOR REGENERATION
OF MORE RIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON PRESENT
TRENDS.

..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

37509120 40039240 40059071 37528954 

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