[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030004 
IDZ000-ORZ000-030200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OREGON/WRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688...

VALID 030004Z - 030200Z

...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PORTION OF
WW 688...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR MEDFORD...WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL ORE/NRN CA. THE UPPER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE NEW TSTMS WHICH
WOULD THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 688. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS ERN/CNTRL OREGON REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES
ARE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. WITH
THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
35-40 KT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT
CAPE POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..TAYLOR.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR...

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