[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012139 
NDZ000-012245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012139Z - 012245Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NRN PLAINS...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES THROUGH 700MB ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION.  THIS
IS SUPPORTED IN MOST RECENT VIS IMAGERY WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD
FROM NWRN SD INTO NWRN ND WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF HEATING. 
SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN ND AND
WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD WITHIN SHEAR
PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION.  HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS MAY
INITIALLY BE THE STORM MODE BEFORE CLUSTERING AND LOWERING CLOUD
BASES ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM THIS EVENING.

..DARROW.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46050335 48310281 48089905 46149890 

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