[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011917 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA/NWRN MO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SERN NEB/NERN
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011917Z - 012015Z

MONITORING PORTIONS OF SWRN IA/NWRN MO...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN
NEB AND NERN KS FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER NWRN MO CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM COU TO MKC TO OMA. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. DUE
TO STRONG TURNING OF THE WINDS FROM SLY TO NWLY IN THE LOWER 5
KM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CURRENT ANALYSIS
AND 18Z OMA SOUNDING SHOW THE AIR MASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...25 KNOT SWLY WINDS LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO BE LIFTED TO THE LFC. IF
IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SWD...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. HAIL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WOULD BE MAIN THREAT.

..IMY.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

41689598 41989494 41819361 39629296 39029269 38959497 

38809529 38939517 41049623 41239687 41109791 40379814
38749713 38509583 

WWWW