[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010119 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-010215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SRN MN...NRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 676...

VALID 010119Z - 010215Z

...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS CONCENTRATED FROM SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND
EXTREME SRN MN WITH SWD PROPAGATING SUPERCELLS...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MS VALLEY REGION AS VEERED LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN WI
THIS EVENING.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUPPORT THIS TREND
WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FUTURE ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ONGOING
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD
INTO THIS STRENGTHENING LLJ BEFORE SLOWLY DECOUPLING BY 03-04Z TIME
RANGE. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD.

..DARROW.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

43599747 44849328 43529182 43189613 

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