From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 01:21:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 20:21:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010120.i711KcD15471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010119 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-010215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 676... VALID 010119Z - 010215Z ...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS CONCENTRATED FROM SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND EXTREME SRN MN WITH SWD PROPAGATING SUPERCELLS... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AS VEERED LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN WI THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FUTURE ELEVATED CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING SUPERCELL ACTIVITY FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INTO THIS STRENGTHENING LLJ BEFORE SLOWLY DECOUPLING BY 03-04Z TIME RANGE. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43599747 44849328 43529182 43189613 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 03:29:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 22:29:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010328.i713SUD15597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010327 NEZ000-SDZ000-010500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010327Z - 010500Z ...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS SCNTRL SD/NCNTRL NEB AHEAD OF AN APPARENT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AHEAD OF CONVECTION FORCING A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO RETURN WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH A SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT NOW OBSERVED ACROSS SRN SD...IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE INCREASING ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT SPREADS EWD WITH SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43550087 43709848 43409697 42169701 42210074 42790165 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 04:43:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 23:43:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010442.i714ggD02391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010441 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677... VALID 010441Z - 010545Z PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO AID CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN/WRN WI. TWO MAIN CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THIS ZONE...NOTABLY OVER NWRN WI AND FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INTO WRN WI. NWRN IA THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD OUT OF THE WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WARM ADVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SERN MN/WRN WI CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. HOWEVER THIS TOO SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42719633 45149300 44508959 43289162 42099469 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 07:00:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 02:00:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010700.i71705D07386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010659 IAZ000-MOZ000-010830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010659Z - 010830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES SWD. AS OF 0645Z...DSM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT-SEGMENT BOWING STRUCTURE FROM BOONE COUNTY WWD ACROSS GREENE AND CARROLL COUNTY MOVING SWD AT 30-35KT. BASE VELOCITY DATA SHOW A LOCAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INBOUND VELOCITIES OVER BOONE COUNTY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING/PROPAGATING SWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND IS LIKELY BEING FED FROM THE SW BY SWLY 25-35KT LLJ FROM RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /I.E. -150 TO -250 J/KG/...AND ONLY MODEST SYSTEM SPEED WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 42019578 42549294 41019236 40579521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 08:44:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 03:44:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010844.i718i1D03683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010843 NDZ000-MTZ000-011015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT INTO WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010843Z - 011015Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LEADING EDGE OF FAST-MOVING MCS EXTENDED FROM WRN DANIELS COUNTY SWD ACROSS ERN VALLEY AND INTO NRN GARFIELD COUNTY AS OF 0830Z...WITH A RECENT WIND GUST TO 72 MPH REPORTED AT GGW. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED /I.E. MUCAPES AOB 250 J/KG/ IT APPEARS THAT FAST SYSTEM SPEED /EWD MOVEMENT AT 40-45KTS/ COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF REAR INFLOW JET /OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 2KM PER GGW VWP/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER WRN ND IS NEARLY STABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 50 J/KG OR LESS. THUS...MCS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..MEAD.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 49000622 49000361 46870361 46880626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 10:58:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 05:58:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011057.i71AveD15652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011056 MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011056Z - 011230Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MN SWWD INTO THE WRN IA /MAINLY W OF I-35/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORKS INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED ASCENT ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL ALONG WLY 20-30KT LLJ IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL/ERN SD ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE CAP /WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE 850-700MB/ WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR THOUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 43759614 43779233 40689229 40529562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 17:13:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 12:13:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011712.i71HCeD18798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011711 IAZ000-011815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 011711Z - 011815Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN IA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST/NORTH OF THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SUX AND DSM... ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES E-W ACROSS IA AND THEN NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD. A 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE WSW IS BEING LIFTED OVER THE BOUNDARY...FUELING THE STORMS WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE 1/2 TO 1 INCH SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE WNW AT 25 KT...STRONG BACKWARD PROPAGATION WILL RESULT IN THE STORMS TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ESEWD. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41749507 42029586 42209583 42429577 42809576 43039557 43029501 42859464 42629424 42219420 41889450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 18:36:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 13:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011835.i71IZKD09399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011834 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-012130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW UT/SE ID/EXTREME WRN WY CONCERNING...SVR TSTM POTENTIAL/DRY LIGHTNING VALID 011834Z - 012130Z ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE SE OF BYI...ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND OTHER SUBTLE WAVES MAY BE PRESENT WITHIN THIS STRONG / 35-40 KT / MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...INDIVIDUAL TSTM UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS NW UT/SE ID. RECENT MESOWEST WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN AROUND 60-70 MPH NEAR DUGWAY/SALT FLATS. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEGREES. THIS COMBINATION OF LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME STRONG/SVR WINDS GUSTS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONGLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO NEARLY 500 MB WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES...SO SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO RAIN. ..TAYLOR.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN... 39801164 40201375 41961405 43251312 43831127 43481078 41951030 41161057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 18:50:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 13:50:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011849.i71InWD13562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011848 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-012045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011848Z - 012045Z TORNADO WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN SD...SWRN MN ...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM DSM TO SOUTH OF SUX...AND THEN NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR PIR. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SWD AND EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO NRN MN. THE AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...AND WILL CONTINUE DESTABILIZING WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE ABR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE 12 RUN. THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD CONTINUE ERODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 45 KT...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO SUPERCELLS. HAIL 3 INCHES OR LARGER WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ..IMY.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR... 43829844 45739847 45789742 45719448 44829424 43349404 41659424 42349817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 19:19:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 14:19:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011919.i71JJ1D21833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011917 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-012015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA/NWRN MO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SERN NEB/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011917Z - 012015Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF SWRN IA/NWRN MO...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN NEB AND NERN KS FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER NWRN MO CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM COU TO MKC TO OMA. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. DUE TO STRONG TURNING OF THE WINDS FROM SLY TO NWLY IN THE LOWER 5 KM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CURRENT ANALYSIS AND 18Z OMA SOUNDING SHOW THE AIR MASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...25 KNOT SWLY WINDS LIFTING NEWD OVER THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO BE LIFTED TO THE LFC. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. HAIL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER WOULD BE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41689598 41989494 41819361 39629296 39029269 38959497 38809529 38939517 41049623 41239687 41109791 40379814 38749713 38509583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 20:43:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 15:43:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408012042.i71KgND13713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012041 WIZ000-MNZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/ECNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012041Z - 012245Z ...MONITORING NRN WI/ECNTRL MN FOR POSSIBLE WW... TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRAINERD MN TO PHILLIPS WI. DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG. THE STORM DEVELOPING SO QUICKLY OVER SAWYER CO WI SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG/SVR TSTMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45819443 46329444 46519181 46088965 45418877 45188897 45118936 45429143 45559308 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 21:41:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 16:41:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408012140.i71LeOD30365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012139 NDZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012139Z - 012245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 700MB ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MOST RECENT VIS IMAGERY WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD FROM NWRN SD INTO NWRN ND WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF HEATING. SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN ND AND WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD WITHIN SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE THE STORM MODE BEFORE CLUSTERING AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46050335 48310281 48089905 46149890 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 23:27:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 18:27:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408012331.i71NVOD29179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012325 WIZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 679... VALID 012325Z - 020030Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NERN PORTIONS OF WI BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED... ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS SHIFTED INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW AND IS NOW SPREADING INTO NERN WI...JUST EAST OF WW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE TOWARD GREEN BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT RATHER ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF MN LATE THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46249035 45348801 44458864 45549094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 00:23:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 19:23:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020023.i720N3D10236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020022 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-020115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 678...681... VALID 020022Z - 020115Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NERN SD LATER THIS EVENING. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REPLACED TO REFLECT ONGOING SCENARIO.. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL ND/NCNTRL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND SPREAD SEWD TOWARD NWRN PORTIONS OF WW LATER THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION PROFILES ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THIS ACTIVITY SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SUPERCELLS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REPLACED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EPISODE. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46040038 45849741 45279562 44189615 44349857 44890111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 01:12:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 20:12:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020111.i721BYD23735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020110 NDZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 680... VALID 020110Z - 020215Z SFC FRONT APPEARS TO BE SURGING SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS PER INCREASING NELY FLOW AND RISING PRESSURES FROM NERN MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND NWRN ND. THIS SURGE SHOULD FORCE A ZONE OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO CENTRAL ND WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE NEAR BIS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS NRN ND AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM BIS FAVORS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46440161 48810215 48969867 46829820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 03:02:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 22:02:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020301.i7231mD22948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020300 SDZ000-020400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 682... VALID 020300Z - 020400Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM PRIOR TO 04Z... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE THEIR SEWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 40 KT ACROSS SULLY AND POTTER COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINING DISCRETE STRUCTURES...WITH TIME STORM MERGERS AND CLUSTERING MAY RESULT IN A SEWD PROPAGATING MCS. IF AN MCS EVOLVES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY YET DEVELOP ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST LEADING STORMS MAY EXIT SRN PORTIONS OF WW AROUND 0430Z. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... 45939988 44569773 43739894 44420033 45400074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 04:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 23:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020430.i724USD15583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020429 SDZ000-NEZ000-020530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 682...683... VALID 020429Z - 020530Z ...MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS SERN SD. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY... A SLOW MATURATION FROM ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INTO MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL SOON EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE FORWARD SPEED AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 45189840 43879659 42929667 42679853 44420032 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 05:55:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 00:55:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020554.i725ssD06410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020553 MNZ000-NDZ000-020730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020553Z - 020730Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0530Z...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WERE LOCATED FROM PIERCE/BENSON COUNTIES OVER N-CNTRL ND SEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...AHEAD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF A WARM OR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ND EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN /NEAR BRD/. WHILE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 700MB...OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL WITH EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY CAN MOVE OR DEVELOP SWD TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD INCREASE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO UNFOLD. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 49019852 48859418 46089416 46099845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 08:03:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 03:03:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020803.i7283FD10822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020802 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683...684... VALID 020802Z - 020900Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. SEVERE...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO FAR NWRN IA. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /TO OVER 250 J/KG/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE MCS DEMISE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG AND E OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY /STRETCHED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY/ WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCE BY 35-45KT WSWLY LLJ OBSERVED ON THE OMAHA VWP AND FAIRBURY PROFILER. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41739857 42879909 42919810 43279729 43599687 44009620 44229557 42189483 42169637 41749626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 09:58:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 04:58:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020957.i729vMD14096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020956 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020956Z - 021130Z STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL IA SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A ZONE WHERE PARCELS ARE BEING LIFTED SUFFICIENTLY TO THE LFC OVER STATIONARY OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 35-45KT WSWLY LLJ JET AXIS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS REGIME INDICATE A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL CAP WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM OF THIS BUOYANCY LAYER REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OR SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA AND NRN MO WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN KS. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL POTENTIAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42899450 43289266 41869102 40219222 38649438 38689617 38919668 41559530 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 10:19:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 05:19:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021018.i72AIrD20257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021017 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-021145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND SEWD INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 021017Z - 021145Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS OF 1005Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HP SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO HYBRID CURRENTLY OVER MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES INTO CNTRL MN MOVING SEWD AT 30-40KTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER CLAY COUNTY MN AND BARNES COUNTY ND. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LEADING STORM COMPLEX IS MOVING ALONG COOL SIDE OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO W-CNTRL WI /N OF EAU/...WHILE UPSTREAM STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE RESIDUAL COLD POOL. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CO-LOCATION OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT MORRISON/TODD COUNTY COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD...SO LONG AS IT CAN CONTINUE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE /I.E. CIN VALUES OF -200 TO -300 J/KG/. MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER NWRN MN/ERN ND. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47109841 47109545 45099260 45109549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 11:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 06:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021143.i72Bh8D13868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021141 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-021245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 021141Z - 021245Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BOW ECHO WITH WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TRACK SEWD AT 35-40KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE IT/S ORGANIZED APPEARANCE...LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SAMPLING THE ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS. INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE INFLOW REGION SUGGESTS THAT COMPLEX MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER WHICH MAY BE EFFECTIVELY DILUTING THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. THOUGH A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...POTENTIAL MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN INFLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER CAN WARM/DEEPEN. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER W-CNTRL WI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORM OVER OTTER TAIL COUNTY AS IT MOVES SEWD. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45089547 47099840 47159542 45099269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 13:36:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 08:36:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021335.i72DZi925554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021335 WIZ000-MNZ000-021530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021335Z - 021530Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A BOW ECHO TRACKS SEWD ACROSS WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX OVER NW MN WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD. STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN MCS WITH A COLD POOL MOVING SEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN WI. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN CNTRL WI THIS MORNING...THE LINE SHOULD BECOME SFC-BASED. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44998991 44048778 43428799 43048833 43348966 44219176 44549248 44839253 45359204 45489162 45349082 45079018 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 16:13:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 11:13:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021612.i72GCj903305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021611 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021611Z - 021815Z NEW CELLS MAY INITIATE ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CNTRL AND ERN IL. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ONCE STORM INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNTRL IL EWD TO INDIANAPOLIS. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO ECNTRL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF NEW STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MOVEMENT WOULD TAKE THEM EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN IL AND WRN IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN OVER TIME AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40688898 41718884 42208861 42438804 42388716 41918649 40938643 39808685 39368766 39478853 39558860 39988902 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 16:46:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 11:46:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021645.i72Gjh918860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021644 MIZ000-WIZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021644Z - 021845Z INITIATION OF NEW STORMS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING ACROSS NRN WI. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN WI EXTENDING NEWD INTO UPPER MI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING STORMS INITIATE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 55 KT IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN WI AND UPPER MI TO ABOUT 35 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE AND FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS...THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46038489 45268648 44828831 44968970 45429003 45898988 46428887 46728672 46728529 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 17:33:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 12:33:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021732.i72HWa909664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021731 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/FAR NE IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021731Z - 021930Z A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL WI SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI BY 21Z. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS LOWER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CENTER OF INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INSTABILITY WILL HELP SUSTAIN AN MCS AND COLD POOL MOVING SEWD THROUGH WI. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS LAKE MI AND REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 55 KT MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER WRN LOWER MI BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LINE TO REMAIN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41618582 42008677 42598740 43148760 44718671 45418526 44918360 44048280 42038407 41398501 41338507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 18:33:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 13:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021832.i72IWe902782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021831 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-022100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/SRN ID/WRN WY/NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021831Z - 022100Z ...STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SPEED MAX OVER CNTRL/ERN NV PUSHING NWD TOWARD NRN UT. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...IT WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. RECENT MESOWEST WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS WHITE PINE CO IN ERN NV HAVE REMAINED BELOW SVR LIMITS SO FAR...BUT STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN. MODIFYING THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SOME INHIBITION...BUT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW INITIATION. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35 KT AND FORECAST TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-55 DEGREES. GIVEN WIND GUST POTENTIAL...DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY INCLUDE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK TO PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MAINLY ACROSS NRN UT/NRN NV. ..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN... 39061182 38391502 40561618 42901614 43591307 43740950 42660784 40330940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 19:12:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 14:12:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021911.i72JBo920369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021910 IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-022145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021910Z - 022145Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL ORE AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN CA. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF ORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ORE WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM LMT TO RDM. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR... 42182048 43602150 45172090 45851925 46531708 45871600 43471614 42251757 42091872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 19:27:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 14:27:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021926.i72JQA926553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021924 MTZ000-022130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021924Z - 022130Z CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL ACROSS SE AND CNTRL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT BACKED AGAINST THE MTNS EXTENDING NWWD FROM NEAR BILLINGS TO SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS MT. SFC HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS. STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 35 KT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH-BASED STORMS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 DEGREES. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47831162 47260895 46780707 46150604 45610656 45610800 46461154 47311285 47601251 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 20:17:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 15:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022017.i72KH4919623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022012 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-022215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022012Z - 022215Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS SRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN SD WITH A SFC LOW IN SRN SD. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SE MN. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONSIDERING THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNT OF CAPPING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM OMA EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN SD WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VEERING FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SFC-BASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 43669296 43499392 43689764 44049886 44479884 44879825 44859587 44709389 44169283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:25:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:25:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022125.i72LPD918941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022123 NEZ000-SDZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022123Z - 022200Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TOWERING CU OVER KEYA PAHA COUNTY NEB OR 15 NNE ANW. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED E-W ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-4000 J/KG/. THE TOWERING CU SUGGESTS THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER ERN WY ATTM. AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43660149 43700022 43619746 43249685 42339663 41909742 42010033 42320155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:34:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:34:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022133.i72LXi923090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022132 MIZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687... VALID 022132Z - 022300Z ...GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS LOWER PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE HOURS... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TSTMS ACROSS LOWER MI. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF A CAD/GRR LINE...AND ARE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING INTO THIS AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SVR GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM MI SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 20 KT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH AGREES WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM GRR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WIND DAMAGE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACROSS UPPER MI...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS...THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SO THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41948337 42048535 42808560 44088557 44918466 45228391 45208277 44768260 43708243 42878267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:42:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:42:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022141.i72LfV926454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022123 NEZ000-SDZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022123Z - 022200Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TOWERING CU OVER KEYA PAHA COUNTY NEB OR 15 NNE ANW. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED E-W ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-4000 J/KG/. THE TOWERING CU SUGGESTS THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER ERN WY ATTM. AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43660149 43700022 43619746 43249685 42339663 41909742 42010033 42320155  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:48:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:48:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022147.i72LlT929328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022132 MIZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687... VALID 022132Z - 022300Z ...GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS LOWER PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE HOURS... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TSTMS ACROSS LOWER MI. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF A CAD/GRR LINE...AND ARE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING INTO THIS AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SVR GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM MI SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 20 KT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH AGREES WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM GRR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WIND DAMAGE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACROSS UPPER MI...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS...THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SO THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41948337 42048535 42808560 44088557 44918466 45228391 45208277 44768260 43708243 42878267  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 22:29:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 17:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022228.i72MSO919046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022227 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-022330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT AND PORTIONS OF SERN ID/SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... VALID 022227Z - 022330Z STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NRN UT INTO PORTIONS OF SERN ID AND SWRN WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 30 NNW OGD TO 40 NW PUC...AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KT. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND NEAR 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLS...WITH 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FAVORING A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 42121319 42151085 39701029 39681253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 00:06:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 19:06:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030005.i7305c918607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030004 IDZ000-ORZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OREGON/WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688... VALID 030004Z - 030200Z ...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PORTION OF WW 688... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR MEDFORD...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL ORE/NRN CA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE NEW TSTMS WHICH WOULD THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 688. THE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN/CNTRL OREGON REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. WITH THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR... 42062016 42012269 43662355 44562288 45042177 45282054 45201961 44961832 44401719 43651652 42761719 42181911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 00:22:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 19:22:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030021.i730LF923531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030020 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-030045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN UT/EXTREME SERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... VALID 030020Z - 030045Z WW 689 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. AIR MASS ACROSS WW 689 HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FAR ERN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THIS WATCH. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC... 39681155 41021128 42171182 42161087 39681026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 00:49:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 19:49:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030048.i730ml931941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030047 NEZ000-SDZ000-030145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN SD INTO NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...692... VALID 030047Z - 030145Z ...STORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN AN AREA OF CHAMBERLAIN TO NEAR HON AND MHE... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CU/MID-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER THIS AREA...WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A STRONG STORM OVER ERN BRULE/NRN AURORA COUNTIES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS SD AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT... SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...WW 691 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEB...SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED AS EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER SD. STRENGTHENING CAP OVER NEB AS INDICATED BY 00Z OAX RAOB SUGGESTS SWD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44239732 42939699 42379701 41479701 41490022 42760018 43000206 43370269 44340212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 02:09:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 21:09:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030208.i7328Z924574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030207 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/EXTREME NERN WY/NWRN SD/EXTREME SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030207Z - 030300Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN MT/EXTREME NERN WY INTO NWRN SD AND EXTREME SWRN ND BY 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM PETROLEUM COUNTY SEWD TO BIG HORN COUNTY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE EWD AS THIS ACTIVITY TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE. INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS TOWARD NWRN SD/SWRN ND. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO DIAGNOSE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45070675 46610652 46550388 46100244 44380262 44270464 44670601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 06:38:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 01:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030637.i736bM908324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030636 OHZ000-030900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND ADJACENT OH SHORELINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030636Z - 030900Z LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN-MOST LE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD TO SEWD OVER LE. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWD ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OH SHORELINE AS FAR W AS ERN OTTAWA COUNTY...AND MAY APCH CLE AREA AROUND 9-10Z TIME FRAME. A FEW GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE ATTM FOR WW. ELEVATED MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG -- AIDED BY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE SFC...SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS LE TOWARD PORTIONS OH SHORELINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND DIABATICALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT STILL WITH SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. BECAUSE OF GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 10-20 KT BETWEEN TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND 500 MB...PER REGIONAL VWP DATA AND RUC PROGS... LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH RESPECT TO FCST INFLOW IN 850-925 MB LAYER SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF LINE IS MOST FAVORED FOR SWD PROPAGATION AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE... 41718322 41498295 41308251 41138205 41158165 41238129 41568094 41828079 41998087 42138112 42228144 42008218 41778295 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 07:04:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 02:04:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030703.i7373x915759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030702 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030702Z - 030900Z TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY...WNW-ESE ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM NWRN SD SEWD TO BETWEEN PHP-PIR...THEN ESEWD TO VICINITY FSD AND DSM. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THIS FRONT. VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE OVER SERN-MOST SD AND NWRN IA...INVOF NOSE OF 30-35 KT LLJ...AND WHERE 850 MB FLOW TURNS SHARPLY FROM SWWD TO SEWD AS IN FSD VWP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT AND BECOMES DIFLUENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/SD BORDER REGION...BASED ON 850 MB STREAMLINES FROM VWP/PROFILER PLOTS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE BUOYANT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES PEAKING AROUND 4000 J/KG NEAR IA/SD BORDER AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL SD AND E-CENTRAL IA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 41519267 42189534 42959828 43459892 43859936 44209947 44479909 44599852 44599820 44559774 44459719 44269635 43769468 43069331 42429211 41769174 41539213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 07:32:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 02:32:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030731.i737Vs924134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030730 SDZ000-030930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND W-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030730Z - 030930Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING EWD OVER NWRN SD AS OF 715Z IS FCST TO TURN MORE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SD...MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND FROM ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF PRIMARY BOW. MAIN CORRIDOR OF CONCERN ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN BUTTE COUNTY ACROSS SRN PERKINS...NERN MEADE...ZIEBACH...NRN HAAKON AND STANLEY COUNTIES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM THIS TSTM CLUSTER ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD NEAR PIR...THEN TO NEAR FSD. BOTH FORWARD AND REAR PROPAGATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH NET SEWD TURNING OF TRACK EXPECTED -- GENERALLY ALONG FRONT. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT FROM 2000 J/KG OVER NWRN SD TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL SD. WRN BRANCH OF LLJ WILL AID WITH LIFT -- GIVEN 20-25 KT 850 MB SELYS AND 45-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AT THAT LEVEL INDICATED BY VWP INTERPOLATIONS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43830039 43950152 44260235 44810356 44990342 45180329 45380313 45360284 45310253 45180191 45030139 44870082 44710045 44469948 44269955 43979973 43920004 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 09:38:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 04:38:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030937.i739bJ930499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030935 NCZ000-031430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NC -- MHX-HAT AREA INCLUDING SRN OUTER BANKS AND CAPE LOOKOUT CONCERNING...TC TORNADO POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 030935Z - 031430Z POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER WATER -- BUT MAY ALSO SPREAD NEWD FROM CAPE FEAR AREA ACROSS OCRACOKE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS INNER BANDS OF HURRICANE ALEX CROSS AREA. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT AND VERY SMALL LAND AREA INVOLVED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TIME SERIES OF VWP FROM ILM/MHX SHOWS INCREASE IN 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AS SFC FLOW BACKS AND WINDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT BOUNDARY LAYER. GREAT MAJORITY OF ZONE WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NWRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME SHOULD SPREAD ONTO SRN OUTER BANKS THROUGH 10-11Z AND NEWD THEREAFTER. MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE WITHIN INNER BANDS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LIFT. RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED/ISOLATED/DISTINCT CELLS WILL NOT BE VERY COMMON IN DENSE PRECIP FIELD OF INNER BAND REGION...HOWEVER ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM WITHIN THESE BANDS MAY ROTATE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...MOVING NWWD THEN WWD BEFORE DISSIPATING N OF EYE. MEANWHILE...CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH TROPICAL WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES FROM HEAVIER CORES...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRAIN ALONG AXES OF SPIRAL BANDS. REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON ALEX. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX... 34687687 34937654 35187598 35297560 35297550 35247551 35207555 35097578 34867610 34567649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 10:06:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 05:06:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031006.i73A6B906143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031004 SDZ000-031200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN AND CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 031004Z - 031200Z TSTM CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO OVER WRN SD HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO PRONOUNCED SMALL MCS...STILL WITH SEVERE BOW ECHO PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR COOLED FOR MOST OF PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER WW...ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS STANLEY/HUGHES/SULLY COUNTIES -- INCLUDING POSSIBLE DIRECT HIT OF BOW ON PIR AREA. COMPLEX THEN SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS LYMAN/BUFFALO/HYDE COUNTIES WITH DAMAGING GUSTS. INTERPOLATED VWP PLOTS AT 850 MB...AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL SD...SUGGEST THAT 20-30 KT SELY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER...YIELDING 50-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN ENVIRONMENT OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. THEREFORE EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER WW AREA...WITH PROBABILITIES HIGHEST OVER AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WW THAT WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS SERN SD...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43439911 44030188 44170204 44480204 44900169 45160095 44769914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 12:23:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 07:23:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031222.i73CMZ916198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031221 SDZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-031315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN SD...EXTREME SWRN MN...EXTREME NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 031221Z - 031315Z SEVERE WIND PRODUCING MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN SRN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...MAINTAINING THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS. SEVERAL DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS WW 693 DOMAIN INCLUDING MEASURED GUST OF 52 KT AT PIR WITHIN PAST HOUR. SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN APPARENT IN REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES DURING PAST HALF HOUR...HOWEVER FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NECESSARY SE OF WW 693. SHORT-TERM PROGS INDICATE ELY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS SERN SD...20-25 KT SPEEDS CONTINUING WITHIN FIRST KM AGL. THIS YIELDS 50-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PEAK MUCAPES 3000-3500 J/KG AND SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. AXIS OF MAX BUOYANCY EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS FSD AREA AND MN/IA/SD BORDER JUNCTION...THEN ONWARD INTO NWRN IA. THIS GENERAL CONFIGURATION OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE PERIOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING AND LOSS OF LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC -- AROUND 14-16Z -- IT MAY MOVE WELL INTO IA. IN SHORT TERM...DAMAGE THREAT WILL IMPINGE UPON PORTIONS BUFFALO/HAND/ JERAULD/AURORA/SANBORN/BEADLE COUNTIES. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43459914 43740046 45020030 44759905 43429912 44729901 44479752 44249648 43989610 43619587 43169612 42889641 43009701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 15:35:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 10:35:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031534.i73FYT903965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031533 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VT / NRN NH / PARTS OF WRN ME... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031533Z - 031700Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE ISOLATED STRONG / LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR. AREA IS BEING MONITORED...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST RADAR SHOWS WEAK / CONVECTIVE VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS FAR NERN NY INTO NRN VT...WITH SMALL CLUSTER OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION CROSSING CHITTENDEN COUNTY VT ATTM. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S...WEAK LAPSE RATES INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MORNING RAOBS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...MODERATE / NEARLY UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS -- AS JET STREAK S OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE NERN CONUS. INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES / LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER / DAMAGING GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... 46277005 45686924 44466966 43907129 43607333 44387333 45007321 45007154 45297135 45287087 45927026 46147028 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 15:50:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 10:50:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031549.i73FnZ911084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031548 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-031715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / SRN MN / NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694... VALID 031548Z - 031715Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SERN SD...AND SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS FAR SRN MN / NRN AND CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 694. LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS...WHICH HAS PRODUCED STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FEATURING LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND ELY WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE / BOW. THIS ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING STORM CLUSTER SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE AND LIKELY EXPAND / INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG WITH SOME HAIL...STRONG / GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44149706 44219578 44039294 43439110 42519108 41959357 42739602 43289738 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 16:24:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 11:24:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031623.i73GNn928293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031622 ILZ000-MOZ000-031745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL AND ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695... VALID 031622Z - 031745Z WW 695 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS ERN MO/WRN IL. DECREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY NECESSITATE WATCH CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 19Z. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AT 1610Z...SMALL MCS CONTINUES 330/35KT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SYSTEM IS TRACKING AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUBSIDENCE ON AREA RUC SOUNDINGS AND WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES /+12C/ ARE INHIBITING UPDRAFT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. LEADING THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG A NE-SW AXIS FROM JERSEY COUNTY IL TO ERN WARREN COUNTY MO ARE ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM. CONTINUED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY NECESSITATE CANCELLATION OF WW PRIOR TO 19Z. ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS FOR REGENERATION OF MORE RIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37509120 40039240 40059071 37528954 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 18:17:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 13:17:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031817.i73IH4919196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031816 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN / NWRN INTO CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... VALID 031816Z - 031945Z BOWING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN / NWRN IA. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE. WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEAD AND PRONOUNCED REAR INFLOW NOTCH -- CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ALONG THE NWRN IA / SWRN MN BORDER. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS CLUSTER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WITH MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER AND FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH CLUSTER HAD BEEN MOVING EWD...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NEB CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD. AS THESE STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED AS THEY APPROACH / MERGE WITH ONGOING STORM CLUSTER...A SLOW TURN OF THE MCS TOWARD THE ESE -- ACROSS NRN IA -- SHOULD CONTINUE. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43959551 43909422 43689213 42289126 41499207 41619456 42019623 42439693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 19:55:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 14:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031957.i73JvM902664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031953 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031953Z - 032200Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY/SWRN ND/NWRN SD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT 1930Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER WHILE TRACKING ENEWD. CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT SSEWD INTO THE BIG HORN MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS NWWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INTO N-CENTRAL MT. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ELY TO SELY WINDS EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...INSOLATION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CLOUDS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT. A FEW LONGER LIVED CELLS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT OVERALL THREAT MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 43900598 45760674 46750606 47040490 46900333 46290246 45800221 45180203 44650201 44130220 43820264 43470420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 20:01:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 15:01:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032001.i73K12904300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032000 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-032200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB / W CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032000Z - 032200Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NERN NEB / W CENTRAL IA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION SW OF WW 696. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT ACROSS E CENTRAL NEB / W CENTRAL IA...WITH TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND MEAN-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK THUS FAR -- AND LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE LOW-LEVEL CAP...CONTINUED HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFICATION OF ETA PFCS WOULD SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH CAP NEARLY ELIMINATED CONSIDERING THE LOW 90S OVER LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP...VEERING WIND PROFILES WHICH INCREASE WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH MAIN THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME MESOSCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH TIME -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR SIGNS OF WEAKENING CAP / MORE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41909851 42509664 42579510 41989425 41269424 41139644 41359864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 20:58:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 15:58:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032057.i73KvD931673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032055 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... VALID 032055Z - 032230Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW. NEW WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED COVERING PARTS OF IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS ORGANIZED / BOWING CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL / SERN MN AND ADJACENT NRN IA...INTO WW 697. MEANWHILE...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SWWD ACROSS NERN AND INTO CENTRAL IA ALONG OUTFLOW...WHERE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THIS REGION THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE S OF ONGOING BOWING CLUSTER. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR AND JUST N OF CENTRAL IA WARM FRONT. WITH TIME HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY ORGANIZE ALONG INTO A BOWING LINE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND PERHAPS NERN MO LATER THIS EVENING -- WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT TRENDING TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... 42709325 42719038 42298976 40459020 39809140 40509344 41399523 41819470 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 21:15:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 16:15:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032114.i73LEQ907947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032059 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032059Z - 032300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 2045Z...TOWERING CU HAVE INCREASED IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS. REGION IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W-CENTRAL TX...WITH PREVAILING SWLY 20-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 20-25 KT SFC-6KM SHEAR. ABSENCE OF FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT SUGGEST T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY ON BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F SUGGEST ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINTAINING THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37080132 39029872 38829786 38439733 37919728 37319735 36339810 35849889 35180017 35250218 36340258  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 21:54:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 16:54:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032153.i73LrK926464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032152 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-032245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032152Z - 032245Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN/SERN NEB. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WEST OF OMAHA...WITH EARLY SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN COLFAX COUNTY NEB. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39939473 40009866 41949751 41819456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 22:09:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:09:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032208.i73M8v900483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032207 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697... VALID 032207Z - 032300Z BOW ECHO EXTENDS FROM 25 W OF LSE TO 20 N ALO MOVING EWD AT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THE BOW HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HOUR AS STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTH OF IT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE RAPID MOTION STILL SUGGESTS A WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO..ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43939197 43979136 43819034 42889033 42679128 42719225 43309218 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 22:41:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:41:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032240.i73Mex912999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032239 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698... VALID 032239Z - 032345Z TORNADOES POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL IA THROUGH 00Z. A LINE OF SUPERCELLS WAS MOVING ESEWD AT 25 KT THROUGH CENTRAL IA. EXTREME INSTABILITY/MLCAPES NEAR 4500 J/KG/...1KM SRH FROM 100-150 M2/S2 AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY FAVOR TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT DO NOT BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN ALL OTHER STORMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT SYSTEM TO BEGIN ACCELERATING SEWD DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH THE WIND THREAT POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE DAMAGING AS IT MOVES INTO ERN IA. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42749263 42508974 40748983 40689389 41459396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:11:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:11:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032310.i73NAG923239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032308 KSZ000-040045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...0100Z OUTLOOK UPDATE VALID 032308Z - 040045Z SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF KS ON THE 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HIGHS BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37169691 37150013 38759883 39839728 39749570 39779518 38689559 38009615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:36:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:36:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032335.i73NZn932046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032334 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-040100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698... VALID 032334Z - 040100Z VERY DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO NWRN IL THROUGH 01Z. A STRONG MESOCYCLONE HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF ALO AND WAS AIDING IN THE THUNDERSTORM LINE TO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE BOW ECHO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ESEWD AT 50-60 MPH. THIS FAST MOTION PLUS FORE MENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS GREATER THAN 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOW. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES BOW ECHO FROM WEST OF DBQ TO EAST OF CID AROUND 00Z AND NEAR THE IL/IA BORDER FROM NEAR DBQ TO MLI AROUND 01Z. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40669405 42189288 42809221 42758950 40788954 40739092 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:44:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032343.i73Nhm902261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032343 WIZ000-IAZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697... VALID 032343Z - 040015Z WW WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. BOW ECHO IS IN EXTREME SERN COUNTIES OF WATCH IN SWRN WI WILL MOVE INTO WW 699 BY 00Z. THUS WW WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42669118 43339094 43529039 42969028 42679031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:47:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:47:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032346.i73Nka902972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032345 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB AND WRN/SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700... VALID 032345Z - 040115Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2330Z...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. LARGE CELL ACROSS WRN DOUGLAS COUNTY NEB MOVING 300/20KT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH GOLF BALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 65 KT. PRESENCE OF EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND MLCAPE TO 4500 J/KG SUGGEST STORM WILL CONTINUE SEVERE INTO SWRN IA THROUGH 0130Z. VAD WIND PROFILE AT OAX CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME WIND DAMAGE WITH GUSTS TO 70KT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ROUGHLY 60W DSM SHOULD CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25 KT. ACTIVITY WILL INTERACT WITH COOL OUTFLOW FROM DOWNSTREAM BOW ECHO OVER E-CENTRAL IA AND WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT TRACKS TOWARD DSM AND INTO WW 698. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWLY 850MB JET SHOWN BY RUC BETWEEN 00-03Z WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIKELY SUSTAIN ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL IA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40559417 40589781 42039780 42009415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 00:17:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 19:17:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040017.i740H0913239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040016 ILZ000-WIZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... VALID 040016Z - 040115Z DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SRN WI. LINE OF STORMS FROM EAST OF LNR TO 30 E DBQ IS MOVING EWD AT 45-50 MPH THROUGH EXTREME SRN WI. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE LINE NEAR A MSN-JVL LINE AT 01Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAST MOTION OF LINE INDICATES DAMAGING WINDS ARE A THREAT WITH THIS LINE. WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED ON THE NORTH END AS A BAND OF STORMS EXTEND EAST-WEST FROM MSN TO MKE...BUT SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...ARX... 42559037 43629013 43568859 43418764 42488777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 00:40:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 19:40:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040039.i740dU920823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040038 INZ000-ILZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040038Z - 040145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN IL AND NRN IND BY 01Z. BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN IA...IS MOVING EWD AT 50-60 MPH AND CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE LINE EAST OF THE WW 698 BY 0130Z. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG AS ACROSS IA...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 698. INSTABILITY AXIS DOES EXTEND SEWD ACROSS NRN IL...SO BOW ECHO MAY TURN MORE SEWD OR ESEWD AS IT MOVES INTO WRN IL. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40718956 42168954 42298872 41718669 41098530 39848601 39918748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 01:21:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040120.i741Kq900886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040119 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-040215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698... VALID 040119Z - 040215Z STRONG BOW ECHO MOVING INTO NWRN IL WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. BOW ECHO EXTENDS FROM EAST OF DBQ TO MLI TO 25 NW BRL. DVN AND ILX EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. WELL DEVELOPED BOW ECHO IS LOCATED NEAR DBQ...AND COUPLED WITH REAR INFLOW JET...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE BOW UNTIL IT MOVES TOTALLY OUT OF WW BETWEEN 0200-0300Z. OTHER STORMS HAVE SPREAD EWD FROM NEB/WRN IA INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIKELY COLD POOLING...ANOTHER BOW ECHO IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OUT OF THIS CONVECTION SHORTLY. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42129408 42159249 42509135 42539032 42148944 41018958 40709199 40669416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 02:18:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 21:18:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040217.i742HV919028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040216 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-040315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NE/IA/NW IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698...700... VALID 040216Z - 040315Z ...TORNADO WATCHES 698 AND 700 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BEFORE 03Z... STORMS ACROSS CNTRL/SW IA ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A BOW ECHO AND TRACK ACROSS SERN IA/EXTREME NRN MO/WRN IL SOUTH OF NRN IL SYSTEM. SEE MCD 1869 FOR MORE INFORMATION. IN ADDITION TO THE BOW ECHO THREAT...NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS STANLEY AND CUMING COUNTIES IN NE MAY SUGGEST MORE STORMS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO...AND SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. SINCE BOTH WATCHES EXPIRE AT 03Z...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. ..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40589414 40579657 40599780 42049777 42009578 42029419 41449415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 02:54:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 21:54:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040253.i742ra930399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040252 ILZ000-040345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702... VALID 040252Z - 040345Z DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NRN IL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE CHICAGO AREA. . LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM 30 EAST OF RFD TO 20 W MMO MOVING EAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. RADAR STILL INDICATES A STRONG MID LEVEL ROTATION/BOW HEAD/ 30 EAST RFD. THIS CIRCULATION PLUS THE FAST MOTION OF THE BOW INDICATES THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN IL. THE BOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN CHICAGO SUBURBS BY 0300Z AND THE REST OF THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 0300-0400Z. THE LAKE BREEZE HAS WORKED INLAND INTO THE CHI AREA AND MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL RESULT IN SEVERE WINDS. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41118949 41628885 41998871 42238889 42348786 41798748 40938834 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 03:57:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 22:57:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040356.i743uI915859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040338 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040338Z - 040445Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MO AND WRN IL SOUTH OF WW 703. STORMS IN SRN IA/EXTREME SERN NEB HAVE ORGANIZED INTO AN E-W LINE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THOUGH LATEST RUC/ETA FIELDS SUGGESTS STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD MORE EWD THAN SWD. HOWEVER...35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD. AIR MASS REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. IF IT APPEARS STORMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD... THEN WW LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 38599297 38789489 39489524 39959490 40068998 38759009 38629122  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 04:36:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 23:36:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040435.i744ZV927711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040434 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-040600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703... VALID 040434Z - 040600Z RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND MAY INCREASE SHORTLY. ONE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF OTM TO 30 NW OF IRK...WHILE ANOTHER STRETCHES FROM SE OF DSM TO LWD TO 40 N STJ. THE FIRST LINE HAS SLOWED IN RESPONSE TO THE LINE BEHIND IT AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LWD TO 40 N OF IRK. HOWEVER..THE SECOND LINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORWARD PROPAGATING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY VEERS FROM SWLY TO WLY AND THE COLD POOL AIDS IN A SEWD ACCELERATION INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40329230 40369281 40539322 40739316 40839310 40789249 40739187 40689128 40379139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 04:49:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 23:49:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040448.i744mf931750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040447 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-040545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 704... VALID 040447Z - 040545Z WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH 06Z ACROSS EXTREME SWRN MI AND NRN IND. A BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT 50 TO 55 MPH EXTENDED FROM BEH FROM 20 W SBN TO 40 N DNV WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. AT THE CURRENT MOTION THE LINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NEAR AZO TO WEST OF FWA TO NEAR LAF. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 40728736 41278662 41728655 41968654 42278619 42248551 41598513 40938537 40528607 40498758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 11:54:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 06:54:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041153.i74Brk924669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041044 OHZ000-INZ000-041245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041044Z - 041245Z LINE OF TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF IL/INDIANA BORDER -- AS OF 10Z -- SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD 25-30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD W-CENTRAL OH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. STRONG GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR SPORADICALLY WITH CONVECTION FARTHER NE -- MOVING FROM NERN INDIANA ACROSS NWRN OH -- HOWEVER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER BECAUSE OF WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN LE SWWD ACROSS WRN OH...TO NEAR A LINE FROM MFD...DAY...IND...40 NNE HUF. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH BTU SHOULD DECELERATE AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY S OF MFD...WITH PARENT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO NE. BOUNDARY IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WWD ACROSS INDIANA AND WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY CONVERGENCE FOCUS...SFC AND ALOFT -- FOR NEXT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING JUST N OF BOUNDARY AS COLD POOL WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW POOL SHOULD HAVE SHALLOW SLOPE ANGLE...PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND EVENT PENETRATING THROUGH ASSOCIATED STATIC STABILITY LAYER DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY NOW OVER NERN INDIANA -- APCHG FWA AREA AS OF 1015Z -- HAS LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITY THAN CLUSTER W-NW OF IND. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...GIVEN PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN BUOYANCY WITH SWD AND SWWD EXTENT. ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR HUF...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW EXCEPT NEAR SRN END OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS WELL...SUGGESTING CORRIDOR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOST FAVORED. ..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 39388729 39878744 40278745 40618720 40658627 40728575 41048557 41158529 41158392 41058323 40838266 40668267 40188313 39748370 39628441 39348556  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 14:41:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 09:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041440.i74Ee7929657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041439 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-041645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OH / SWRN PA / NRN KY / NRN WV AND THE WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041439Z - 041645Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN OH / SERN IN ATTM SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS EVIDENT ACROSS SRN OH AND INTO SWRN PA / WV / KY ATTM...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...THOUGH DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...MCS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST ILN /WILMINGTON OH/ VWP SHOWS MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY AS WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED / STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EWD INTO THIS REGION. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INDICATE THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK... 40638320 41018201 41068053 40507937 39917944 39098014 38628155 38528310 38568448 38958489 39778379 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 18:03:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 13:03:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041802.i74I26900788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041801 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-041930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN / PARTS OF NRN AND WRN KY / SRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041801Z - 041930Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN IN / NRN AND WRN KY. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR INCREASING THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN KY INTO SRN IN...WHERE MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS INDICATED. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN OH / WRN PA STORM CLUSTER / AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN FURTHER N INTO OH...MODERATE / NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT A INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 38818151 37968126 37488187 37138709 37888736 38808695 38918450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 18:33:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 13:33:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041832.i74IW9914302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041831 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL PA / SRN OH / WV / MD PANHANDLE / NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 706... VALID 041831Z - 042030Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AT NEAR 40 KT INTO WRN PA / NWRN WV. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WITH NEW WW LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL PA / ERN WV / WRN MD / NRN VA. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE E OF BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED INTO S CENTRAL PA / WV AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG INTO NRN VA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- AS MCS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS PA WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAKER...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO NRN VA -- SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS FAR S AS NRN VA. THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE PARTS OF WW 706 AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH NEW WW LIKELY REQUIRED E OF THIS WATCH. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 41167886 41267824 40977744 40117710 38287825 38378406 38938338 39248117 40378021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 19:23:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 14:23:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041922.i74JMZ905938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041921 ORZ000-WAZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN ORE AND SERN WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041921Z - 042115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN ORE AND SERN WA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. AT 19Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD TOWARD THE SWRN ORE COAST IN ADVANCE OF BROADER TROUGH IN THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ORE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY AID LARGE-SCALE UVV. TOWERING CU CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADES AND POINTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN ORE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S...AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /-13C/ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 8-8.5 C/KM / WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WITH LONGER-LIVED/STRONGER CELLS. SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43052205 45312162 45542140 46152046 46451958 46521909 46511861 46441776 45811742 45471740 44691754 43781902 42881986 42512023 42622168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:05:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:05:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042004.i74K4x925956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042003 MTZ000-IDZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN/CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042003Z - 042200Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL/WRN MT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 1950Z...CU CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WRN MT AND NRN ID. HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONG /40-50KT/ BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS ERN MT AND TROUGH ACROSS NWRN PACIFIC. THESE WIND FIELDS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTS A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS FROM ERN MT NWWD TO HVR. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS W-CENTRAL/WRN MT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE WEAK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING FROM HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 25-30 KT ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL MT BY EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE CELLS WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES / 700-500MB OF 8-8.5 C/KM / SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX... 45721427 45861510 48061651 48881642 48930867 47720791 47080797 46051070 45851244 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:40:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:40:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042039.i74KdF909355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042038 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN TX...AND FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042038Z - 042245Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD TO THE SWRN OK/NWRN TX BORDER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 2025Z...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM HEREFORD COUNTY TX ESEWD TO NEAR SPS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND HAVE ELIMINATED CIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20-25 KT. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST ACTIVITY UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY SEWD AT 5-10KT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34849918 34569807 34069789 33639846 33629941 33580025 33750160 34050292 34630352 35070326 35290271 35310171 35090039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042041.i74KfI910089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042039 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KY / SWRN WV / WRN VA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... VALID 042039Z - 042215Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL OH WSWWD INTO WRN KY...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS FAIRLY WEAK /GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH 700 MB ACCORDING TO JACKSON KY AND CHARLESTON WV RADARS/. NONETHELESS...25 TO 35 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WWD INTO WRN KY...AND MAY SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF TN AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT WIND FIELD MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WE WILL MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN WW 707. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 38868140 38688065 37118115 36218569 36258856 37388879 38508679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:49:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042048.i74Kmt913618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042038 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN TX...AND FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042038Z - 042245Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD TO THE SWRN OK/NWRN TX BORDER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 2025Z...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM HEREFORD COUNTY TX ESEWD TO NEAR SPS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND HAVE ELIMINATED CIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20-25 KT. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST ACTIVITY UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY SEWD AT 5-10KT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34849918 34569807 34069789 33639846 33629941 33580025 33750160 34050292 34630352 35070326 35290271 35310171 35090039  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:50:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042049.i74KnT913823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042039 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KY / SWRN WV / WRN VA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... VALID 042039Z - 042215Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL OH WSWWD INTO WRN KY...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS FAIRLY WEAK /GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH 700 MB ACCORDING TO JACKSON KY AND CHARLESTON WV RADARS/. NONETHELESS...25 TO 35 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WWD INTO WRN KY...AND MAY SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF TN AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT WIND FIELD MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WE WILL MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN WW 707. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 38868140 38688065 37118115 36218569 36258856 37388879 38508679  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:59:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:59:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042058.i74Kwb918164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042057 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042057Z - 042330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA INCLUDING NERN NM/SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD ACROSS WRN KS IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO/NERN NM AT THE PRESENT TIME. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND RANGE TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SERN CO. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING IS CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25-30KT...AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED/SEVERE CELLS. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD WITH LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37660502 38040491 38540475 38650421 38590285 38140238 37630206 36930202 36070202 35730230 35130361 34860465 34680564 34680607 36430548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 21:24:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 16:24:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042123.i74LN9929126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042122 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-042345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...ERN/NERN WY...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042122Z - 042345Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM MLS TO SNY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AT 21Z...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES AN ENEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS N-CENTRAL WY AND WILL CREST 500MB RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN WY/ERN MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRESENCE OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS INDUCING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY NWD ACROSS ERN MT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F ACROSS THE REGION WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN WY NWD INTO ERN MT. DESPITE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG /30-35KT/ AND BILLINGS MT VAD INDICATES 40-45KTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...WITH 30-35KT PER MEDICINE BOW PROFILER IN SERN WY. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SERN MT SSEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH LONGER-LIVED STORMS AS CELLS TRACK EWD AROUND 25 KT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 44020327 43470323 42780309 41100303 41090451 43330597 44110660 45320751 46000773 46610749 46850609 46700434 46090406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 21:51:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 16:51:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042150.i74Loc908393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042148 NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-042345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...MD...DE...FAR NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708... VALID 042148Z - 042345Z SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY EWD WITH A THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE EXTENDING EAST OF WW 708 THIS EVENING. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE LINE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND REMAIN STRONG AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS MD AND SE PA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PA AND NJ. A LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS TRACKING EWD NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WLY 850 MB JET PUNCHING EWD ACROSS SRN PA BEHIND THE LINE. THE JET MAX WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE LINE HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS SFC TEMPS COOL THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER THE LINE WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERE LEVELS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHEN THE JET BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39147844 40887667 41117562 40907408 39137479 38977586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 23:46:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 18:46:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042345.i74NjF918305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042343 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND NRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709... VALID 042343Z - 050045Z CONTINUE WW. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES NEWD ACROSS NERN ORE INTO FAR SERN WA/NWRN ID. MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ORE WILL MAINTAIN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST CELLS OVER NRN UMATILLA COUNTY ORE AND GARFIELD COUNTY WA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY 200/20-25KT. AIR MASS CONTINUES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE / MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG / WITH SEVERE THREAT DRIVEN LARGELY BY FAVORABLE SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR /30-40 KT/. LONG-LIVED STORMS IN LOW WBZ HEIGHT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND INTO FAR ERN WA/NRN ID THIS EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LEADS TO WEAKENING OF STORM UPDRAFTS AFTER DARK. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 43721904 43732183 45172152 46481999 47761819 47981714 47821606 47251559 45631611 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 15:01:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 10:01:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051500.i75F0F924097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051459 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / CENTRAL AND ERN NC / NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051459Z - 051700Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VICINITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN VA WSWWD ACROSS TN. ADDITIONAL AXIS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AS SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. MAINLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALLOW STRONG HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX IS INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER NERN TN ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 30 KT MID LEVEL WLYS. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS E OF THE APPALACHIANS...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE FROM SERN VA SWWD INTO NRN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AHEAD OF ONGOING RAIN BAND AND ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS / SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH MODERATE / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE N-S LINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TIMING OF WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 37337591 35757589 33917896 34168033 34918215 36997865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 18:37:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 13:37:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051836.i75Iag927160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051835 MTZ000-WYZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051835Z - 052100Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN MT WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL MT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN ID. FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH 18Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWING 35KT WINDS AT 500MB AND 70KT WINDS NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. MEANWHILE...INSOLATIONAL HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF MT WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENTLY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF MT. LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ENHANCED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IMPINGES ON THE REGION FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED T-STORMS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WW LIKELY NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO... 48621231 47481121 46070965 45200931 45001002 45011091 44821119 44711176 44581237 44621275 44881320 45241358 45571380 45981357 47011361 47831405 48911483 48961343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 19:13:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 14:13:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051912.i75JCe913164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051911 GAZ000-ALZ000-052045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AL / NRN GA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051911Z - 052045Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH A FEW PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD THREAT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF AL / GA...WHERE WEAK / ROUGHLY W-E BOUNDARY CONTINUES SAGGING SWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM NERN GA NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE FLOW WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT INTO AL. NONETHELESS...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS AREA WILL FUEL CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED -- PARTICULARLY FROM WRN GA WWD -- BUT LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34498567 34418340 33168307 32598570 33538727 34188735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 19:34:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 14:34:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051933.i75JXq924586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051932 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA / PARTS OF SC / ERN HALF OF NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711... VALID 051932Z - 052100Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WW AREA...WHERE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NC INVOF SURFACE LOW / FRONT. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN GA TOWARD PARTS OF WRN SC...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AND CLOSE TO WW AREA. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- AND THUS GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL -- REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT NERN GA. EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PULSE / MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING EWD WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... 35537951 36687687 36667551 35207544 33048195 33218306 33968328 34798275 35348091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 20:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 15:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052041.i75KfI923796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052040 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WY...NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052040Z - 052245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT 2025Z...A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING 270/15KT NEAR THE SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE BORDER. STORMS APPEARED TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SURGED SWD ACROSS ERN WY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND SSELY FLOW AROUND 15 KT WILL PROVIDE MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW TO ONGOING STORMS. RELATIVE MINIMUM IN FIELD OF ABSOLUTE CIN SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS FAR NERN CO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL T-STORM DEVELOP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MEDICINE BOW AND MERRIMAN PROFILERS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 70KT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41190468 41550433 42280388 42920366 42990254 42960166 42080187 41020206 40550215 40430230 40320251 40130281 40110342 40180381 40450437 40790465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 21:46:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 16:46:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052145.i75LjQ919696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052144 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SC...ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711... VALID 052144Z - 052315Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE IN ERN NC. NEW CELLS MAY ALSO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SC AND ERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM ERN NC EXTENDING WSWWD INTO NRN GA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STRONG STORMS IN WW 711. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS ERN NC. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SC AND ERN GA CURRENTLY HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33008284 33998272 34728019 34977812 35717629 36097547 35717511 35157504 34057665 33727887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:08:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:08:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052207.i75M7P928088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052206 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 052206Z - 052330Z CONTINUE WW. AT 22Z...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING GTF AREA IS TRACKING 225/37KT. THIS CLUSTER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 42KT SURFACE WINDS AT HLN AT 2119Z AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH GREAT FALLS VICINITY DURING NEXT 30 MINUTES AND THEN NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH 00Z. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT ACTIVITY TO NERN EDGE OF WW 712 AROUND 00Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44661327 49001411 49001021 44660957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:09:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:09:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052208.i75M8Q929125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052207 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...CNTRL LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052207Z - 060000Z CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 32029462 31859306 31938954 30828911 30699294 31179498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:11:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:11:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052210.i75MAe929736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052206 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 052206Z - 052330Z CONTINUE WW. AT 22Z...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING GTF AREA IS TRACKING 225/37KT. THIS CLUSTER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 42KT SURFACE WINDS AT HLN AT 2119Z AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH GREAT FALLS VICINITY DURING NEXT 30 MINUTES AND THEN NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH 00Z. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT ACTIVITY TO NERN EDGE OF WW 712 AROUND 00Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44661327 49001411 49001021 44660957  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:12:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:12:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052211.i75MB9929833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052207 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...CNTRL LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052207Z - 060000Z CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 32029462 31859306 31938954 30828911 30699294 31179498  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 23:22:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 18:22:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052321.i75NLS921113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052320 WYZ000-MTZ000-060045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713... VALID 052320Z - 060045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT. CAPPING INVERSION HAS LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF S-CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 20 SE BIL AT 2305Z INITIATED ALONG A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE-SW SOUTH OF BIL. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND PROFILE AT BIL SHOWS VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60KT. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER NORTH....CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN GTF AND LWT. PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND EMBEDDED BOWS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM LWT NWD...ACROSS WW 712. HOWEVER...SRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EFFECT THE NRN PORTION OF WW 713 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SRN EXTENT OF LINE MAY BE AIDED BY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD AND CROSSING INTO FAR SWRN MT AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 44920966 46790961 46780623 44920639 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 02:17:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 21:17:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408060216.i762GP911409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060215 MTZ000-060315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... VALID 060215Z - 060315Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR NE MT...WATCH 714 REMAINS IN EFFECT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE N TO NE INTO PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DISORGANIZED THOUGH SOME EVIDENCE EXISTS OF A DEVELOPING COLD POOL BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY WINDS OBSERVED AT HVR AND LWT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HORUS. THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG...HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY COULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS...STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..LEVIT.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... 46910453 48850408 48851004 46901025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 04:54:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 23:54:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408060453.i764rI927119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060452 MTZ000-060645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... VALID 060452Z - 060645Z BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NE MT WHERE A MOIST TONGUE IS IN PLACE WITH LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z ACROSS NE MT SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT WITHIN THE LINE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALONG COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EWD TOWARDS THE ND BORDER AS STRONG CAPPING IS WELL ENTRENCHED. ..BROYLES.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW... 47020620 48300654 48720667 48850627 48710442 48040426 47120460 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 18:30:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 13:30:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408061830.i76IU0907589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061827 MNZ000-NDZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061827Z - 062030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL ND SSEWD INTO ERN SD. PRESSURE FALLS EXIST ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW TO 40 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-END SEVERE HAIL...AND MAY BECOME BETTER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF SURFACE HEATING WITHIN UPSTREAM AIR MASS. ..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46060063 46300098 47940062 49000086 48979723 46299679  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 19:42:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 14:42:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408061941.i76JfT905486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061940 TXZ000-NMZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...EXTREME E-CENTRAL NM ALONG TX BORDER CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061940Z - 062145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. WHILE IT REMAINS COOL E OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S JUST W...ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RATHER SLOWLY AS OF 1930Z...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INCREASE QUALITY OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ON MOIST SIDE OF SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO LOW-END SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY 20-25 KTS...SLOW STORMS MOTIONS WITH SLY COMPONENT WILL INCREASE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SR WINDS...INCREASING FAVORABILITY FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE. ..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 33740266 34090306 35250335 35740318 35930275 35860210 35000180 33740169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 19:45:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 14:45:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408061945.i76Jj3906885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061943 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY / SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061943Z - 062145Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKENING / MOVING NEWD TOWARD ALBERTA / SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...SECOND FEATURE NOW CROSSING NRN NV SHOULD SPREAD INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AND ENHANCED /30 TO 35 KT/ MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS NWRN WY AND INTO SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY / SWRN MT AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST / INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL -- PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO S CENTRAL MT. ..GOSS.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH... 44661118 46291160 46720970 46570727 45850630 44560703 43860878 43251103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 22:56:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 17:56:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408062255.i76Mtk913458@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062254 MTZ000-WYZ000-070000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY AND SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 062254Z - 070000Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING UNTIL 900 PM MDT... STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN NUMBER DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE WW. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS TO THIS POINT...A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 43640628 43651054 46731020 46750586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 23:31:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 18:31:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408062330.i76NUP923895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062329 TXZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 062329Z - 070030Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BETWEEN LBB AND AMA. STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER...WITH ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE DEEP MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 35160293 35340203 35110107 34130106 33060111 33580288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 23:43:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 18:43:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408062342.i76NgE927432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062341 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-070145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CENTRAL SD...SERN ND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 062341Z - 070145Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FROM SERN ND INTO NERN CO...BEFORE MOVING INTO STABLE AIR. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED ON THE LARGE SCALE...THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO SERN ND. MVX AND ABR VWPS SHOW WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. FARTHER S INTO SD...SURFACE BASED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED...WITH ONLY SMALL LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LOW END SEVERE HAIL GIVEN LOW RH SUB CLOUD LAYER AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...BRIEF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED. STORMS FARTHER SWWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD STORMS...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 43120284 44350143 45630034 47659884 47849704 47299689 45939684 44179784 43099878 42449996 40590175 39280293 39520511 41620406 42630339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 01:05:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 20:05:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070104.i7714r919819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070103 TXZ000-070200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 070103Z - 070200Z WW 716 SHOULD EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE WW. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LOCATED WEST OF LBB AND 30 ESE CVS TO 20 SW PVW. THE STORMS ARE MOVING/DEVELOPING SSEWD AT AROUND 25 KT...INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG STILL EXISTS IN THE SRN PORTION OF WW...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE WW BY 02Z SHOULD BE DOWN TO ONE OR TWO AT MOST...SO WW IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 35180289 35090214 34590115 34130106 33060111 33140293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 01:24:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 20:24:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070123.i771NB925427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070122 MTZ000-WYZ000-070215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT AND NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 070122Z - 070215Z SEVERE STORM CONTINUES IN WW EAST OF BIL. ONE INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED EAST OF BIL AND APPEARED TO BE INGESTING THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES NEWD INTO NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF BIL...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER FLOW TO THE WEST OF AND SOUTH OF BIL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ... 46690898 46670575 44760613 45260876 45620918 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 02:38:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 21:38:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070237.i772bl913609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070236 MTZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 070236Z - 070300Z STORMS LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF BIL ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/COOLS. WW WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 46760797 46680586 45480593 45450748 45760806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 04:48:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 23:48:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070447.i774lr919417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070446 TXZ000-070645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070446Z - 070645Z SLOW MOVING MCS NOW SHIFTING SWD AT 20 KT WILL CONTINUE SSEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TX FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH ORGANIZED NATURE OF LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NWWD JUST NORTH OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WEST TX...WITH A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CENTRAL TX. EXPECT ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SSEWD ALONG THIS GRADIENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AS FEED OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR PERSISTS WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS VERY WEAK...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF DOWNDRAFTS/SURFACE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG WNWRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MCS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /MITIGATED BY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THIS REGION. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO TRAIN FROM COCHRAN/HOCKLEY/YOAKUM COUNTIES SEWD TOWARDS MITCHELL/COKE/NOLAN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ..EVANS.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...FWD...EWX... 32160151 33300272 33700215 32560058 31850064 32869999 31469870 30459899 30389990 31600142 33140228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 07:30:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 02:30:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070729.i777TZ932231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070728 MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-070900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN WA/NRN ID INTO NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070728Z - 070900Z THREAT FOR HAIL IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NERN WA/NRN ID INTO NWRN MT THROUGH 12Z. HAIL SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE VALUES...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENT. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AIDING IN MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY 500 MB JET AND 90 KT WLY 300 MB JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH 12Z. MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ROTATION. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX... 48981310 48181283 47471382 47031506 46841603 47521649 47981700 48351800 48571839 49001838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 16:25:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 11:25:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408071624.i77GOd925551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071624 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071623 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-071900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071623Z - 071900Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH DIAMETERS LESS THAN 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED DUE TO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...BUT 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED IN 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...BRINGING 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -17 TO -20 C OVER NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S F AND WITH SOME HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP....AND SOME WILL LIKELY HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LESS THAN 1.00" DIAMETER. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...THUS STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LIVED. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR HAIL WILL BE OVER ME...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S F. ..JEWELL.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42277094 42397182 42627337 43567435 44617442 45017451 45027146 45277137 45327092 45897026 46707001 47486923 47456908 47306908 47196887 47386826 47066779 45736776 45596744 45206735 44806697 44516798 44066919 43447042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 18:19:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 13:19:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408071818.i77III928676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071817 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/SD AND EXTREME ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071817Z - 071945Z THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN ND AND PERHAPS NWRN SD BY 20Z. COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF ISN TO EAST OF MLS TO SHR AT 18Z. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MT/SD BORDER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR PHP AND THEN NEWD TO WEST OF ABR. SURFACE WINDS WERE ELY NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND/EXTREME ERN MT. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND ALL MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 21Z...AS CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N CENTRAL MT. STRENGTHING MID LEVEL WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45600402 47500419 48900393 48910135 45590017 43690085 43810262 44440367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 20:46:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 15:46:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408072046.i77Kk4908623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072044 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME WRN KS / SWRN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072044Z - 072245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES TROUGH EXTENDS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH AND HELPING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. AT THE SURFACE...DRY SURGE HAS DECREASED DEWPOINTS INTO NRN CO...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F INTO EXTREME ERN CO. DEWPOINTS IN WRN KS IN THE MID 60S F WILL LIKELY MIX INTO THE 50S AS HEATING CONTINUES. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME LARGE HAIL...WITH PULSE / MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXPECTED. ..JEWELL.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40500141 39310137 37060158 37140405 37800453 38720474 39410367 40530281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 20:53:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 15:53:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408072052.i77KqM909947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072051 SDZ000-NDZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717... VALID 072051Z - 072145Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST DURING THE NEXT HOUR FORM EAST OF ISN TO DIK TO REJ. THUNDERSTORMS NUMBERS AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING EWD AT 20-25 MPH INTO WRN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATION IN STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45160386 46600319 47740334 48230378 48820330 48990260 48540213 47630168 46690159 45480204 45080253 44930309 44930370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 23:26:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 18:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408072325.i77NPg918074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072324 SDZ000-NDZ000-080030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717... VALID 072324Z - 080030Z ...WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF ND INTO NCNTRL SD... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL SOON EXIT ERN MOST PORTIONS OF WW OVER CNTRL ND. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS DEVELOPED SOME LOOSE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...IT'S POSSIBLE FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY INCREASE AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45120242 46450168 47590178 47439998 45139953 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 00:36:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 19:36:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408080035.i780Zh903722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080034 SDZ000-080130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718... VALID 080034Z - 080130Z DISCRETE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM MELLETTE COUNTY INTO PENNINGTON COUNTY SD. 00Z SOUNDING FROM RAP SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY HIGH BASED GIVEN THE 30-40 DEG F TEMPERATURE SPREADS. DOWNSTREAM SOUNDING FROM ABR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND LOWER IF MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL SD CAN ENTRAIN INTO THESE UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43500165 44050290 44720211 43929950 43199935 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 01:47:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 20:47:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408080146.i781kH921765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080145 TXZ000-NMZ000-080345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080145Z - 080345Z ...MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN NM/NWRN TX FROM SAN MIGUEL COUNTY NM...INTO NWRN OLDHAM COUNTY TX. STORM MERGERS AND AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUGGEST A COLD POOL MAY BE EVOLVING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION FAVOR SWD PROPAGATION ALONG THE NM/TX STATE LINE. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL...GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 36040321 35360246 33630229 33490382 35450472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 08:02:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 03:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408080801.i7881u921076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080800 NEZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080800Z - 080930Z ISOLATED HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS /THROUGH 10-11Z/. AREA WIND PROFILERS AND VAD WIND DATA SHOW A 25-30 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL NEB. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN NEB EXTENDED FROM NERN NEB SWWD TO BUB AND THEN WWD TO NEAR 20 SW MHN. ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL AID IN A CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE W AND NW OF THE STRONGEST STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN HOLT COUNTY. ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION. BASED ON THE 03Z/06Z RUC...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY 12Z AS IT VEERS WLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING. ..PETERS.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 42459849 42709746 41339666 40829824 40820020 41510134 42790136 42859919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:19:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:19:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081718.i78HIk922924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081717 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-081815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN WI AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081717Z - 081815Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN WI AND NRN IA FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AT 17Z...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR STC TO 30 E RWF TO 50 SE FSD. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ...AND SHOULD DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 30 SE RWF. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S...THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42979583 43319568 44229444 45099404 45359391 45509251 44739141 42549306 42489424 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:39:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:39:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081738.i78Hcl930167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081737 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081737Z - 081900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ND CONTINUES MOVING EWD. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -17 C. ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW IS VEERING...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F...THIS WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW...BUT STRONG FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BE RATHER LONG LIVED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES OVER SRN ND AND NRN SD...UNDERNEATH COMPACT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THEREFORE...BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN ND...EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...DEGREE OF AMBIENT VORTICITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES CANOT BE RULED OUT. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48999606 47149518 45639491 45629656 45629858 47019895 48379973 49010012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:43:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:43:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081742.i78HgV931293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081741 COR MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081741Z - 081900Z CORRECTED FOR ACCIDENTAL TRANSMISSION PRIOR TO SPELL CHECK STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ND CONTINUES MOVING EWD. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -17 C. ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW IS VEERING...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F...THIS WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW...BUT STRONG FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BE RATHER LONG LIVED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES OVER SRN ND AND NRN SD...UNDERNEATH COMPACT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THEREFORE...BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN ND...EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...DEGREE OF AMBIENT VORTICITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48999606 47149518 45639491 45629656 45629858 47019895 48379973 49010012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 18:07:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 13:07:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081807.i78I74906713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081805 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NRN KS/ EXTREME NWRN MO/SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081805Z - 081900Z WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...NRN KS...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S ACROSS NRN KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WHERE MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AND CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BETWEEN HLC AND LNK. OTHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR FSD TO AIA. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK AS A SURFACE TROUGH...WITH NLY WINDS NORTH OF IT...IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF OMA TO LBF. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BACKED AT SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS SITES IN NRN KS... SUGGESTING INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SRN NEB. ONCE SURFACE BASE STORMS DEVELOP...WHICH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 200-300 PM CDT...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40230087 40939918 41499718 41879556 40169447 39069560 38599800 38430055 38990141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 20:11:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 15:11:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082010.i78KAh910335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082008 TXZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 082008Z - 082145Z THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SSEWD AT 10-15 KT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN A BAND FROM WEST OF TPL TO SE OF JCT. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEST OF TPL TO NEAR JCT. SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...850/700 MB DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY NEAR 17C AND 8C. BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD AND STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JCT TOWARD SAT. SLOW MOTION OF STORMS...EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30670054 30719935 31489821 31399801 31089794 30509860 30159967 30370069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 20:44:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 15:44:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082043.i78Khm919010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082042 TXZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 082042Z - 082215Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS EXTREME SERN NEB AND NRN KS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM 30 EAST OF LNK TO 20 SE HSI. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN KS. MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD AID THESE STORMS IN INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS ALSO DEVELOP NEAR CNK WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30670054 30719935 31489821 31399801 31089794 30509860 30159967 30370069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 21:05:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 16:05:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082104.i78L4V924481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082102 MNZ000-NDZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719... VALID 082102Z - 082230Z STORMS APPEAR TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WW AREA BENEATH UPPER LOW...WITHIN SURFACE CONFLUENT ZONES. LINE OF CONVECTION NOW E OF RED RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF WW...THUS ADDITIONAL WW OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED INTO NWRN MN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG OVER SERN ND AND NWRN MN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG VORTICITY WITHIN THE COLUMN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 46149625 46769839 47119906 48279909 49009926 49009501 46049398 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 22:05:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 17:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082204.i78M4Z908582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082203 WIZ000-MNZ000-090000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN...NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082203Z - 090000Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE MESO-LOW WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM E-CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HERE. FARTHER WEST...LINE OF CU ALONG MN/SD BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EDGE OF VORT MAX / COOLING ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EWD...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD OVER CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY WRN WI...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43539119 43589276 43649422 44809500 45619497 46089490 46249235 45939139 45209109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 00:10:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 19:10:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408090010.i790A2909822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090009 KSZ000-090115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 090009Z - 090115Z ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 20KT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH SRN PORTIONS OF WW AROUND 0200-0230Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP SWWD ALONG PSEUDO DRY LINE BEFORE SUNSET. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... 39669881 39959613 38709606 38369803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 02:13:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 21:13:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408090212.i792CD911480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090211 WIZ000-MNZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722... VALID 090211Z - 090315Z WLY WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD EXPANSION OF INCREASINGLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN...INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST HAIL THREAT WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE UPDRAFTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44649046 45559341 47719277 46869219 44968887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 15:55:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 10:55:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091554.i79FsW901902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091553 MIZ000-WIZ000-091730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WI AND THE WRN UP OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091553Z - 091730Z CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL WI /W OF AUW AND VOK/ TO ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR DVN. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM VORTICITY LOBE ATTENDANT TO UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WRN WI. TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT AS THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-45KTS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS/. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUOYANT LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS /I.E. 0-3KM MLCAPES OF 100-150 J/KG/ AND LOCAL BACKING OF WINDS NEAR SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... 44548974 45328953 46498893 46938807 46518711 44828745 43458811 42718841 42988989 43798996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:03:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:03:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091802.i79I2E902536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091801 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091801Z - 091930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:05:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:05:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091804.i79I4K903268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091803 COR OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091803Z - 091930Z CORRECTED FOR HEADER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:23:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:23:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091822.i79IMr911906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091801 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091801Z - 091930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:24:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:24:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091824.i79IOB912645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091803 COR OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091803Z - 091930Z CORRECTED FOR HEADER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:31:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:31:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091830.i79IUe916068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091829 ILZ000-MOZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IL WWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091829Z - 092000Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NW OF UIN SWWD TO N OF SZL. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON /OWING TO CONTINUED ISOLATION/ WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED ON THE WINCHESTER IL PROFILER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX... 39869269 40249066 40059006 39529033 38969226 38459392 39009414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 20:34:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 15:34:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092033.i79KXL912768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092032 MIZ000-WIZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI AND THE UP OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723... VALID 092032Z - 092200Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UP OF MI. AS OF 2015Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES MI MOVING NEWD AT 30-35KTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE WITHIN REGION OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND NEAR CENTER OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. COMBINATION OF WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS AND EXPANDING STORM COLD POOLS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL UP OF MI. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46738876 48048478 45278477 43958880 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 22:08:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 17:08:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092207.i79M7p928733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092206 AZZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092206Z - 100000Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. 18Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20 INCH. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...WITH 100 MB MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 105 HAVE ERODED MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THEREFORE...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EASY TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN RIM IS SENDING OUTFLOW WWD...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THESE BOUNDARIES. IN ADDITION...AREA VWPS INDICATE ELY FLOW OF 5-15 KTS SEVERAL KM DEEP OVER SRN NM AND SERN AZ...WHILE IWA RADAR INDICATES WLY FLOW. THUS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. GIVEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF DCAPE AVAILABLE AROUND 1800 J/KG...AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31581180 31851248 34001247 34181206 34161136 33991081 33821040 32371051 31361070 31331105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 22:38:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 17:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092237.i79Mbb909819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092236 COZ000-092330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... VALID 092236Z - 092330Z CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITHIN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST A RELATIVE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS ZONE MAY CLUSTER BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AND MOVING SEWD TOWARD ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37090455 39750500 39250273 37050259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 23:32:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 18:32:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092332.i79NWC928985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092330 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-100030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SWRN KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725... VALID 092330Z - 100030Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW... VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SUSTAINED SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL AID ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36750504 38229902 35499940 35570412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 00:24:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 19:24:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408100023.i7A0Nb915258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100022 INZ000-MIZ000-100115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100022Z - 100115Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN IND/NWRN OH... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT REGION APPEAR TO BE SPREADING INTO NWRN IND...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG VEERED...BUT MAIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT... 40708753 41848606 41528480 39848708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 00:52:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 19:52:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408100052.i7A0q3924090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100051 KSZ000-OKZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725... VALID 100051Z - 100145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725 MAY BE REPLACED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WRN KS... EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO THE LAST HOUR WILL SOON EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S WITH SSEWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. WRN PORTIONS OF KS REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE MODIFYING DDC/DEN SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SFC/TEMP DEW POINTS. THIS REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW725. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36700181 39660190 39490025 37069982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 02:15:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 21:15:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408100215.i7A2F5917554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100214 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726... VALID 100214Z - 100315Z WW 726 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI FOR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS SOUTH OF WW AREA ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH. AT 0155Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL LOWER MI SWD INTO NRN IND ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WAS A SUPERCELL ACROSS SERN GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL LOWER MI AND ADDITION LONG-LIVED CELL MOVING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY IN SRN LOWER MI. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 25KTS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL REDUCE CAPE DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF STORMS. OBSERVED 00Z MUCAPE AT DTX WAS AROUND 700 J/KG...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS MAY MAINTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS FOR NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE LESSENING INSTABILITY REDUCES UPDRAFT INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM MI/IND BORDER SWWD TO 40NW LAF...MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG CORES NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH. ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR ERN LOWER MI OR ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN OH. ..BANACOS.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 40828748 42108667 45698568 45708297 42118413 40838494 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 22:49:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 17:49:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408102248.i7AMmwV13815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102247 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102247Z - 102345Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM AHEAD OF APPARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH TIME POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. FARTHER NORTH...WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS WRN KS WITH CONVECTION NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM ECNTRL CO INTO WCNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY ORGANIZE THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS WRN KS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36340336 36990211 39090199 38950018 36090020 35160290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 23:29:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 18:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408102328.i7ANSPV29452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102327 NYZ000-PAZ000-110100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY/NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 730... VALID 102327Z - 110100Z PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 730 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E/NE ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 730 FROM CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA. STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN MODERATE WIND FIELDS/MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WW 730 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..GUYER.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 43237796 44177493 41857492 40377933 41797782 42377861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 23:42:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 18:42:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408102341.i7ANfhV01491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102341 TXZ000-NMZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102341Z - 110045Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NM... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM...ALONG SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY INFLUENCED BY UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CO. WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTICELL UPDRAFTS...AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SSEWD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION HOWEVER AT THIS TIME A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34160490 35810350 35720274 34710285 33430301 33070452 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 00:48:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 19:48:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110047.i7B0lHV21814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110046 COZ000-110145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 731... VALID 110046Z - 110145Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN CO... DEEPENING ELY FLOW OVER ERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AS FRONTAL SURGE PLUNGES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR FAVORS SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER STORM MERGERS MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40640505 40280366 38340257 37750404 39090526 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 02:17:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 21:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110217.i7B2H2V17040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110215 OKZ000-KSZ000-110315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110215Z - 110315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING INVOF INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...REGION REMAINS WITHIN DEEP CONVERGENCE NEAR H85 WARM FRONT WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE SLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING ACROSS OK. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. IN ADDITION...EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF DEVELOPING MCS NOW OVER ERN CO MAY PRODUCE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS LATER TONIGHT. ..EVANS.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35369793 36009989 37889958 37299773 36689580 34809597 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 03:18:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 22:18:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110317.i7B3HqV04558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110316 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-110415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 732... VALID 110316Z - 110415Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW SHORTLY... SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SERN CO...STRETCHING INTO NWRN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE GAINING SOME MOMENTUM AS IT PROPAGATES SSEWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER PRESSURE RISES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 39030144 38869980 36530038 36560221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 04:45:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 23:45:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110444.i7B4iYV32149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110443 OKZ000-TXZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733... VALID 110443Z - 110545Z SFC PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF NRN OK. WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS DEEPENING AIRMASS APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK. LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD PROVE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL OK. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... 36919709 36319600 35289637 35610019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 06:09:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 01:09:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110608.i7B68sV25745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110607 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NRN/CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110607Z - 110800Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND NRN/CNTRL AR EARLY TODAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD INTO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE AIDED BY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME... WILL LEAD TO FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36789583 34959580 34569107 36369088 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 07:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 02:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110743.i7B7h3V21663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110742 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-110945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...OK...NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733...736... VALID 110742Z - 110945Z WIDESPREAD STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WATCHES 733 AND 736 THROUGH EARLY MORNING. STRONG AND DEEP FRONTAL SURGE SUPERIMPOSED UPON NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST COMPOSITE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SEGMENTED AND FRACTURED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX/OK PNHDL REGION ESEWD ACROSS SRN KS/CNTRL OK...AND THEN EAST ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN AR. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOLOW AND OUTFLOW SURGE FROM BEAVER COUNTY OK SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL. ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM GRAVITY WAVE PULSE OVER SWRN OK EWD ACROSS NRN KIOWA TO CNTRL GRADY COUNTIES IN WCNTRL OK. MEANWHILE... WEST-TO-EAST BANDS OF STORMS APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE FROM SRN KS INTO NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO THE ESEWD MOVING MESOLOW AND ABUNDANT OPPORTUNITY FOR CELL MERGERS AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37849960 36719583 33639591 33680156 35970158 36149997 37849981 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 10:25:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 05:25:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111024.i7BAOYV08159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111023 ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-111200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NWRN TX...AND NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736...737... VALID 111023Z - 111200Z LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/WRN AND CNTRL OK THIS MORNING. STRONG OUTFLOW SURGE WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EAST OVER KINGFISHER... CANADIAN...CADDO...AND COMANCHE COUNTIES OF NCNTRL OK. MESONET OBS IN WASHITA AND KIOWA COUNTIES RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 59MPH AND 50MPH RESPECTIVELY AS THIS LINE PASSED. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL OK THROUGH 12Z. TO THE EAST ACROSS TSTM WATCH 737...FRONTAL ZONE WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NRN AR. A FEW CELLS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER NRN AR BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS WEAKER THAN FARTHER WEST. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH WATCH EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34939594 33639597 33689995 36049882 35919593 36839589 36629369 36239343 35899032 34549049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 11:51:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 06:51:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111150.i7BBovV05193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111149 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111149Z - 111345Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF SERN OK INTO NERN TX THIS MORNING AS MCS MOVES ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN AR. A WELL ORGANIZED MCS WITH STRONG MESOLOW AND OUTFLOW SURGE WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR. WHILE MCS APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MO/MID MS VALLEYS...DEGREE OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION TO THE MCS...AND MOIST WEAKLY CAPPED UPSTREAM AIRMASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST SERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE NOW SURGING ACROSS SCNTRL OK. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM POST-FRONTAL STORMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN AR. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WAS IN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY NOT SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33589617 34009732 36329403 35329126 33159488 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:02:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:02:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111601.i7BG1EV19491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111559 NYZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-111730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111559Z - 111730Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD INTO ERN PA/NJ. MODIFICATION OF 12Z OKX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA/NWRN NJ MAY TEND TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA OR CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCATED FARTHER E INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE MODEST WSWLY FLOW...APPROACH OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL EFFECTIVELY STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... 44207525 44077290 39437355 39577583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:33:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:33:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111632.i7BGWaV03091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111631 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-111800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111631Z - 111800Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND ADJACENT VA PIEDMONT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM N OF ROA TO N OF HKY. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WIND SHEAR PROFILES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 37397962 39287812 39277571 35527862 35738094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:34:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111634.i7BGY1V03532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111633 COR DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-111800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111633Z - 111800Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO THIRD PARAGRAPH TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND ADJACENT VA PIEDMONT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM N OF ROA TO N OF HKY. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WIND SHEAR PROFILES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 37397962 39287812 39277571 35527862 35738094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 17:24:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 12:24:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111723.i7BHNcV28273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111722 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-111945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111722Z - 111945Z INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO NRN MS. WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ALTHOUGH WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS AR THIS AFTERNOON INVOF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. PERIPHERY OF ONGOING COMPLEX WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS WARMED IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S F...IN MIDST OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CINH EXISTS...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS PULSE MODE AND/OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 32139544 32509494 33559320 34069119 34978988 34258942 33549000 32669108 31669314 31279474 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 18:13:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 13:13:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111812.i7BICiV20084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111811 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-111945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111811Z - 111945Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SLOW AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING ACROSS NERN CO WITH INDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING DENVER CYCLONE. TCU BANDS HAVE ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL CO ROCKIES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITHIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. CONTINUED HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY UNFOLD INITIALLY N OF A COS TO LIC LINE...HOWEVER WITH TIME PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK TO THE S SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON THE PLATTEVILLE AND GRANADA PROFILERS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40990557 41020389 40590322 39550294 38410290 38000359 37840458 38620560 39660601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 18:18:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 13:18:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111817.i7BIHmV22225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111816 TXZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111816Z - 112045Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN TX PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYAL OF MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. ACCORDINGLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EPISODIC PULSE SEVERE WILL BE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MEAGER AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS/. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30260008 30289914 30759826 31549782 32169691 33189615 32669546 31659475 31539460 30309526 29699655 29059853 29550013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 19:43:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 14:43:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111942.i7BJgQV00364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111941 NMZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111941Z - 112115Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN RANGES OF N-CNTRL NM WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG /PER MODIFICATION OF 18Z ABQ SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS/. FARTHER E ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN NM...AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL SURGE...WHILE SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS STABILITY OVER THE SERN PART OF THE STATE. CONTINUED HEATING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD AID THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALONG/E OF MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR THE SEWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 36910684 36950417 32040408 32030655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 20:20:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 15:20:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112019.i7BKJNV18777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112018 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-112145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ME / ERN NH / ERN MA / RI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112018Z - 112145Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MORE ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MA INTO SRN NH...TO THE E OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF WW 738. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIRMASS ACROSS RI AND CNTRL/ERN MA INTO ERN NH REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND NO CAP. THOUGH LOCAL VWPS DO INDICATE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING ARE BEING OBSERVED TO THE W IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AND GEOGRAPHICALLY SMALL AREAL EXTENT. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... 41037178 41897172 41957131 42517132 42987122 43627119 44297083 44336986 42857031 41176973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:02:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:02:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112301.i7BN1DV22773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112300 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR ERN PA/CT/WRN NH/NRN AND CNTRL NJ/VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738... VALID 112300Z - 120030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 738 UNTIL 00Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST 00Z EXPIRATION...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY. ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROUGH...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS RENEWED AND/OR INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO VT/NH IN WAKE OF EARLIER TSTMS. AIRMASS DOES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VAD DATA. THUS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 738. OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NJ WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39717714 41137576 41977489 42597440 44337501 44947453 44957044 39667410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:28:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:28:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112328.i7BNS3V32050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112326 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND DE/MD/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739... VALID 112326Z - 120030Z WW 739 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. REMAINING SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FROM ERN MD INTO DE/SRN NJ ASSOCIATED WITH EWD TRANSITIONING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 37347842 38847664 39747632 39687415 37307581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:29:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:29:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112328.i7BNSgV32181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112327 COZ000-NMZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...741... VALID 112327Z - 120130Z BOUNDARY LAYER DID NOT HEAT SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AND STRONGER MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE NOT MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACHED THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED FROM THE RATON MESA SWD INTO ERN/CNTRL NM WHERE SEVERAL ONGOING TSTMS ARE LOCATED. DESPITE STRONGER HEATING...THE NM PLAINS ARE ALSO CAPPED AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33490578 35770580 37300530 40090532 39070333 35250359 33650364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:30:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:30:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112330.i7BNUGV32698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112326 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND DE/MD/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739... VALID 112326Z - 120030Z WW 739 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. REMAINING SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FROM ERN MD INTO DE/SRN NJ ASSOCIATED WITH EWD TRANSITIONING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 37347842 38847664 39747632 39687415 37307581  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112330.i7BNUWV32757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112327 COZ000-NMZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...741... VALID 112327Z - 120130Z BOUNDARY LAYER DID NOT HEAT SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AND STRONGER MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE NOT MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACHED THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED FROM THE RATON MESA SWD INTO ERN/CNTRL NM WHERE SEVERAL ONGOING TSTMS ARE LOCATED. DESPITE STRONGER HEATING...THE NM PLAINS ARE ALSO CAPPED AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33490578 35770580 37300530 40090532 39070333 35250359 33650364  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 01:31:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 20:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408120131.i7C1VCV09561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120130 NMZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0830 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 741... VALID 120130Z - 120200Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 741 WILL EXPIRE AT 02 UTC AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. STRONGEST TSTM CLUSTER WAS MOVING SWD INTO ERN SOCORRO AND NWRN LINCOLN COUNTIES AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZING VERTICAL MOTION. THE PLAINS REMAIN CAPPED AND GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING EVEN NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR VCNTY RUIDOSO. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 33680574 36270576 36160337 33310398 33180397 33230490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 08:11:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 03:11:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408120810.i7C8AlV32593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120809 GAZ000-ALZ000-121045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AL INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120809Z - 121045Z ISOLD SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL AND NWRN GA NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE WAS SITUATED GENERALLY WSW TO ENE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA EARLY TODAY. TSTMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDENT WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK TO SUPPORT STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...COMBINATION OF STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND 35-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/STORM PERSISTENCE. GIVEN LOW LCL... HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE WAVES...AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WEAK INSTABILITY PROHIBITING THE FORMATION DISCRETE CELLS. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN... 33918349 33188494 32938681 33318732 33848711 34498438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 12:02:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 07:02:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121201.i7CC1hV05122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121200 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 121200Z - 121500Z CHANCES FOR ISOLD TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF SWRN GA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES ASHORE. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. EVX RADAR REVEALS THE RAGGED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE MAKING STEADY NWD PROGRESS TOWARD THE FL PNHDL EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 11Z/7AM EDT...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH BUOY 42039 /85NM SSW PAM/...WHERE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 50KT. LATEST RECON DATA ALSO INDICATED A BAND OF 35-40KT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF BONNIE AND THIS WIND FIELD IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT BONNIE WILL BE RAPIDLY ASSIMILATED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...BONNIE SHOULD ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST VWP DATA FROM EVX AND TLH SHOWED GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR RESULTED IN WEAK 0-1KM SRH AOB 100 M2/S2. SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER NEARS THE COAST AND BAND OF STRONGER FLOW WITHIN THE ERN/NERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM SRH OF AT LEAST 150 M2/S2 SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND LOW LCLS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE WIND FIELDS AND HELICITY WILL BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A LARGER REGION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SRN GA LATER THIS MORNING AS SYSTEM BECOMES INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCELERATES INLAND. AS DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVER THIS LARGER AREA...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WELL AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30388631 31808505 31948398 31788178 29498194 29548505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 14:07:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 09:07:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121406.i7CE6MV19513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121402 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-121530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA / SC INTO SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121402Z - 121530Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN GA NEWD ACROSS SC. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY E OF ATL WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY BACKING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NERN GA AND MUCH OF SC. MODIFICATION OF CHARLESTON VWP WITH THESE CURRENT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS YIELDS 100-150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND 35-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 32338368 34988117 34527782 32008044 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 16:04:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 11:04:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121603.i7CG3kV10645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121600 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/ERN PA/NJ AND WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121600Z - 121730Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM ERN PA NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND WRN MA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING ALONG/E OF QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND WITHIN BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 40-50KTS AT 500MB/. EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP PROCEDURE FOR WATCH ISSUANCES AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39937512 40707626 42617501 44647325 44927219 44347107 42617168 41137294 40067376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 16:52:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 11:52:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121651.i7CGpwV01365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121650 FLZ000-GAZ000-121745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL/NRN PENINSULA INTO SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 742... VALID 121650Z - 121745Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF T.S. BONNIE TRACK. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 1635Z...TLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF BONNIE 45SSE OF TLH MOVING NEWD AT 20-25KTS. CURRENT TLH VWP INDICATES STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3KM AGL WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 215 AND 333 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS ALONG BONNIE TRACK HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG FROM THE FL BIG BEND/NRN PENINSULA INTO SERN GA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INVOF BONNIE...LARGER-SCALE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS SAME REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS IS MOIST/UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 742 WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE AT 1800Z. AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCES AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31908444 31898050 28888182 28948540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 17:35:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 12:35:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121735.i7CHZFV20047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121734 DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-121900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC NWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121734Z - 121900Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NC/VA WITH AN ATTENDANT 45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC. MOST INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY BEING REFLECTED BY MESOLOW WHICH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER N-CNTRL SC OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG SIMILAR TRACK TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. LOCALIZED PRESSURE FALLS/ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ALONG THIS LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...GIVEN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35467994 38657958 38737568 35387618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 18:18:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 13:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121817.i7CIHiV07707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121816 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121816Z - 122015Z TSTMS MAY POSE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AT MIDDAY...WITH SFC RESPONSE EVIDENT IN MASS FIELDS ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. ACCORDINGLY LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE FROM FAR SRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX PANHANDLE AS ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE /HIGHEST ACROSS NW OK/ AND MINIMAL CINH. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES -- AS EVIDENT IN HAVILAND/LAMONT PROFILERS AND AREA VAD DATA -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37680001 37689851 37319738 36409686 35709659 34899674 34879885 35259997 36200108 37000137 37430121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 19:15:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 14:15:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121914.i7CJEPV31407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121911 COZ000-NMZ000-122045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121911Z - 122045Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE CO/NM STATE LINE THAT EXTENDS ESEWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL OK. LOCALLY-BACKED WINDS INVOF THIS FEATURE HAVE MAINTAINED MID 50S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND W OF A TAD TO RTN LINE. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC HEATING...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING TCU/SMALL CBS EVOLVING ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN 35-45KT NWLY WINDS OBSERVED IN THE 5-7KM LAYER AT THE TUCUMCARI NM AND GRANADA CO PROFILER SITES...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. INITIALLY...MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. HOWEVER WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SELY FARTHER S ACROSS E-CNTRL NM...SUPPORTING A SWD EXTENSION OF MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS /AND INHERENTLY GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... 37660603 38540534 38640441 38230321 37070314 35320320 34520379 34560507 35140592 36130614  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 20:07:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 15:07:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122007.i7CK74V23211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122006 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA/CNTRL AND ERN NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...745... VALID 122006Z - 122130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MESOLOW NEAR GSO WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM E OF GSO INTO S-CNTRL VA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURES ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THIS LOW CENTER SEWD IN AN ARC TO NEAR FAY AND THEN SWD TO ALONG SC COAST. REGIONAL VWPS AHEAD OF THIS INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH 21-22Z WILL EXIST AHEAD OF MESOLOW FROM N-CNTRL NC/S-CNTRL AND SERN VA EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NC...INCLUDING THE RALEIGH/DURHAM AREAS. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOWING STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 37658010 37647494 35297590 35347692 31907980 31898303 33188144 33228076 33578026 34297989 34837975 35437990 36218054 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 21:57:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 16:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122156.i7CLusV05012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122155 NCZ000-SCZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NC IN TORNADO WATCH 743 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743... VALID 122155Z - 122300Z TORNADO WATCH 743 EXPIRES AT 22Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST OFFICE IN WILMINGTON NC WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SERN NC FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS SERN NC AND WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE LINES HAVE VEERED WEST OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT REMAIN SSELY ALONG THE COAST FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH UP INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY AREA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISK OF TORNADOES...HOWEVER...SEEMS TO BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 745. GIVEN THAT THE TORNADO THREAT AREA IS SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED ACROSS SERN NC...ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED...BUT RATHER LOCALLY EXTENDED BY THE WFO ILM. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33437912 34937794 34847615 33417826 33407889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 22:04:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 17:04:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122203.i7CM3UV07220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122201 AZZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122201Z - 130030Z ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE INTO LOWER DESERTS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ONGOING TSTMS INVOF MOGOLLON RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ORGANIZE SUFFICIENT COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING TSTM CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A SCENARIO PER 18Z PHOENIX/TUCSON RAOBS PORTRAYAL OF 15-20 KTS OF ELY MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/ WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1200-1400 J/KG SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35461356 35341210 34681094 33871040 32751066 32571165 32931265 33731377 35331405 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 22:08:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 17:08:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122207.i7CM7VV08959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122206 NCZ000-SCZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NC IN TORNADO WATCH 743 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743... VALID 122206Z - 122300Z CORRECTED FOR WFO TORNADO WATCH 743 EXPIRES AT 22Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOREHEAD CITY NC WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SERN NC FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS SERN NC AND WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE LINES HAVE VEERED WEST OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT REMAIN SSELY ALONG THE COAST FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH UP INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY AREA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISK OF TORNADOES...HOWEVER...SEEMS TO BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 745. GIVEN THAT THE TORNADO THREAT AREA IS SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED ACROSS SERN NC...ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED...BUT RATHER LOCALLY EXTENDED BY THE WFO MHX. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33437912 34937794 34847615 33417826 33407889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 22:49:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 17:49:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122248.i7CMmpV22933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122247 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC AND SRN/ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 745... VALID 122247Z - 122345Z TORNADO WATCH 745 EXPIRES AT 00 UTC. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REISSUED. VORT MAX WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...CENTERED OVER APPOMATTOX COUNTY VA...MOVING NEWD INTO CNTRL VA. BANDS OF TSTMS ARC SEWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA INTO NERN NC. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED AS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING. AS SUCH...TORNADO WATCH 745 WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REISSUED OR EXTENDED FARTHER NORTH. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 35407711 37487835 38597737 38227578 35827572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 23:04:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 18:04:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122304.i7CN41V27626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122302 FLZ000-GAZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL AND EXTREME SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 744... VALID 122302Z - 130030Z TORNADO WATCH 744 EXPIRES AT 0100 UTC AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REISSUED. CENTER OF REMNANT BONNIE WAS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SERN GA SOUTH OF THE KSAV AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH HAVE VEERED AND THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SLY...WITH THE STRONGEST 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM KJAX NEWD TO KSAV. POSSIBLE TORNADIC TSTM MOVING NEAR/SOUTH OF KSAV AREA WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE SERN GA BY 0000 UTC...ENDING THE TORNADO THREAT. FARTHER S...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF HRCN CHARLEY IS SPREADING NWD OVER SRN PARTS OF THE TORNADO WATCH AND LIMITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS HRCN CHARLEY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27498183 31768205 31627947 27538026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 23:23:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 18:23:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122322.i7CNMcV00861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122321 OKZ000-TXZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 122321Z - 130115Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 747...NAMELY ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND SW/SCNTRL OK. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE SWD INTO N TX IS UNLIKELY. STORMS WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 750-1250 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ INVOF ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AMA TOWARD THE OKC METRO AREA. AMBIENT WIND PROFILES /40-45 KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/ WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS/MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION. FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF RED RIVER...PROGRESSIVELY DRIER/STABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS N TX SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35930294 36779634 34009638 33299660 32789739 32599944 32590151 32650231 33210293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 00:28:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 19:28:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408130027.i7D0RYV21907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130026 COZ000-NMZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746... VALID 130026Z - 130200Z WW 746 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUING THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SSEWD INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN/I-25 FROM SCNTRL CO INTO NE NM...WITH FURTHER SWD PROGRESSION OF INTENSE SUPERCELL /LINCOLN CO/ AND OTHER SEVERE TSTMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 ACROSS ECNTRL NM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IN ACCORDANCE WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS/VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST E/SELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO/ERN NM...CONTRIBUTING TO 40 KTS OR GREATER OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NM...WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG RESIDE PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY HAZARD ACROSS WW 746...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS ERN NM...INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 746 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 37570638 37560309 33660307 32750319 32680420 32680531 32800607 33150649 33750622 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 01:02:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 20:02:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408130101.i7D11eV31829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130100 FLZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND LOWER FL KEYS INTO SRN FL AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130100Z - 130330Z TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FL KEYS AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES. THIS THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO SRN FL OVERNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CUBAN WEATHER RADARS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HRCN CHARLEY WAS JUST NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND MOVING NNW AT 17 MPH. KEY WEST RADAR SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS EMERGING INTO THE FL STRAITS...AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED 20-40NM SOUTH OF KEYW. THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE HRCN. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE TURNED ELY ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CENTER OF CHARLEY APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL INCREASE. IF THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF STORMS CONTINUE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORT MEYERS/PORT CHARLOTTE AREAS BY 12 UTC. EWD EXTENT COULD VERY WELL INCLUDE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS WELL...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE SWRN COAST OF FL INCLUDING THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 23878220 27028223 26738101 25708049 24608060 23818119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 06:23:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:23:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408130622.i7D6MgV00915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130621 FLZ000-130815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748... VALID 130621Z - 130815Z AS HURRICANE CHARLIE APPROACHES SRN FL LATE T0NIGHT...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. KEY WEST FL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS HURRICANE CHARLIE NOW MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A HEAVY RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NWD INTO SCNTRL FL AND DRY AIR SPIRALING INTO THE HURRICANE FROM THE SE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN HEAVY RAINBAND ACTIVITY OVER FAR SRN FL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE EYE APPROACHES WRN FL LATE TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINBANDS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE EYE WILL ORGANIZE AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KEY WEST LATE TONIGHT SHOW STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES FROM THE SFC TO 2 KM. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE EYEWALL MOVES NWD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SW OF THE FL KEYS. ..BROYLES.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 25967969 24827979 24048014 23888141 24208237 25108265 25938262 26978236 27288151 27198055 26857985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 10:48:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 05:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131047.i7DAlYV18635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131046 FLZ000-131245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748... VALID 131046Z - 131245Z HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH WRN FL THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADO AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 12Z TO REPLACE WW 748. FLORIDA KEYS 88D RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS HURRICANE CHARLIE JUST WEST OF KEY WEST WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING NWWD ACROSS THE SWRN TIP OF SOUTH FL. DRY AIR ENTRAINING BEHIND THE MAIN RAINBAND WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ISOLATED SMALL SUPERCELLS ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAINBAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS AS THEY TRACK NWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FL THROUGH MIDDAY. ..BROYLES.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 28208176 27658021 26037994 24418022 24168171 24688298 26038338 27848318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 15:05:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 10:05:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131505.i7DF5AV25158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131504 FLZ000-131630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 749... VALID 131504Z - 131630Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 16-17Z APPEARS TO BE INTERIOR SRN PENINSULA W/S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTIVE BAND ATTENDANT TO HURRICANE CHARLEY HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE/MONROE COUNTIES NNWWD INTO COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES. SYNTHESIS OF LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES CURRENTLY 150-200 M2/S2. THIS SAME GENERAL CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 16-17Z. AS CHARLEY CONTINUES NWD THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING SHIFT OF STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO LOCATIONS W OF U.S. HIGHWAY 27 AND S OF INTERSTATE 4. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 28178273 28178037 24527976 24508200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 15:32:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 10:32:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131532.i7DFWTV06311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131531 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131531 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-131700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131531Z - 131700Z EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. REGION IS BEING UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER E-CNTRL NY IS RESULTING IN SSELY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT BONNIE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 40977387 41637390 42657326 42737251 42717135 42567051 41766987 40937044 40507282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 17:03:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 12:03:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131703.i7DH34V16616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131702 FLZ000-131830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 749... VALID 131702Z - 131830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF WW 749 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM POLK COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR AND S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LIFTING NNWWD AT 30-40KTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THINNING OF HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES NOW 1500-2500 J/KG N OF THE LAKE. MOREOVER...AXIS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 200-250 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD OR NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PENINSULA AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND AND ANTICIPATED NWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX... 24547978 24558198 29308299 29328058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 18:23:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 13:23:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131822.i7DIMXV18250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131821 OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO SWD INTO ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131821Z - 131945Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY TO 20Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND ALSO NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE E /NEAR AND S OF LHX/. STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE E ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH. GIVEN 30-35KT NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /OBSERVED ON TUCUMCARI NM AND GRANADA CO PROFILERS/ ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST ANY ROTATING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37060592 38020566 38520420 38480308 37840259 36410309 34410373 33800442 33630499 33950592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 18:27:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 13:27:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131827.i7DIR0V20321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131825 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA...SRN/WRN AZ AND FAR SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131825Z - 132130Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT WITH THE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL WEAK VORT CENTERS MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOJAVE DESERT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MID 60S DEWPTS AS FAR NORTH AS NEEDLES AND THE COACHELLA VALLEY. REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SERN CA INTO FAR SWRN AZ. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA INTO FAR SRN NV AND WRN AZ. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 DEG TEMPERATURE DEWPT SPREADS AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE LESS MELTING WILL OCCUR...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z NKX AND DRA SOUNDINGS ALONG SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. WEAK WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE MTNS OF SRN CA AND SLY FLOW INTO THE MTNS OF WRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO AND ABOVE 1 INCH/HR GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32681481 32661646 33611681 34231737 35181677 36031580 36181468 33521165 32001165 32451334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 20:08:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 15:08:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408132008.i7DK86V32065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132006 FLZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 132006Z - 132130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH GREATEST THREAT OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA THROUGH 21-22Z. AS OF 1946Z...TAMPA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF CHARLEY APPROXIMATELY 25W OF FMY. WHILE INITIAL RAINBAND /COMPOSED AT TIMES OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS/ HAS LIFTED N OF A ORL TO MLB LINE...SUBSEQUENT SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SMALLER...MORE TRANSIENT BANDS SW OF TAMPA /NAMELY MANATEE...HARDY...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES/. HERE...INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE ERN PENINSULA /I.E. SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF CHARLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS THE WW AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THROUGH 21 OR 22Z WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH WRN EDGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29698299 29688033 25177969 25158228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 22:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 17:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408132215.i7DMF3V16546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132214 FLZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 132214Z - 132315Z TORNADOES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA. AT 600 PM...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED 40 WSW ABR MOVING NNEWD AT 20 KT. IF THIS TRACK AND SPEED CONTINUES...THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ORL AT 01Z. TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE INTENSE EYE WALL WHERE 1KM SRH IS NEAR 200 M2/S2. AN OUTER BAND OF INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES...EXTENDED FROM 50 S GNV TO 15 ESE ORL AND WAS MOVING NWWD AT 35-40 KT. ANOTHER STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 45 SW VRB TO 55 W PBI TO 45 SSE FMY. THIS BAND IS LOCATED WITHIN A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 100 M2/S2...BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THAN NEAR THE EYE WALL. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE CHARLEY...REFER TO LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ..IMY.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26238180 26908154 27318151 27478191 28108218 28678273 29368276 29288155 28748114 26938015 26248039 25518121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 22:32:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 17:32:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408132232.i7DMW5V22209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132230 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CENTRAL NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 132230Z - 140030Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF WW 751 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER ECENTRAL NM WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING ACROSS ERN NM AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL OVER SERN CO...AS BILLOWS NOTED IN CU FIELD INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CINH. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE REST OF WW 751 AROUND WW EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/ DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST OUTSIDE OF WW 751 OVER CENTRAL/SERN NM. OVER CENTRAL NM...CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL SURGE MOVES SEWD INTO THE MID/LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY. AND OVER SERN NM....ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL MOVE SSEWD AND ALSO MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. ..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34110334 34110572 38520512 38500255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 00:04:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 19:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140003.i7E03fV15511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140002 FLZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 140002Z - 140100Z TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA. NEAR 00Z....RADAR INDICATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED 30 NW AGR AND MOVING NNEWD AT 22 KT. IF THIS SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE...THE CENTER WOULD BE LOCATED CLOSE TO ORL AROUND 01Z AND ABOUT 15 SW DAB AT 03Z. TORNADOES REMAIN A STRONG POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE EYE WALL ...WHERE 1KM SRH HAS INCREASED TO 300 S2/M2. A BAND OF STORMS FROM 40 NW ORL TO NEAR DAB IS ALSO IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. THIS BAND IS MOVING NWWD AT 35 KT. BANDS OF CONVECTION ON THE E-SE OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION FROM FMY TO WEST OF VRB ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE BANDS. ..IMY.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27828149 28438176 28908186 29278158 29178081 27758026 26748029 26098090 25888136 26518218 26788161 27388119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 00:38:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 19:38:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140038.i7E0cGV24769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140037 TXZ000-NMZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 140037Z - 140200Z CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH GUADALUPE...TORRANCE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. GRADUALLY INCREASING CINH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 751 AND THUS A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER SERN NM. FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NERN NM AND SERN CO PORTIONS OF WW 751...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WATCH EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 35380562 36610541 36480286 34050330 34080570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 01:52:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 20:52:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140152.i7E1qKV12669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140151 FLZ000-140245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 140151Z - 140245Z TORNADO THREAT LIMITED TO EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...MAINLY FROM MLB NWWD TO NEAR DAB. AT 0145Z...RADAR INDICATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS JUST NORTHEAST OF ORL AND CONTINUED TO MOVE NNEWD AT 20 KT. THIS MOTION PLACES THE CENTER NEAR DAB AT 03Z AND OFFSHORE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS LOCATED IN THE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHERE 1 KM SRH IS NEAR 250 M2/S2. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE TORNADO WATCH WILL NOT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NWD...AND THE CURRENT WATCH SHOULD EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z OR POSSIBLY EVEN CANCELLED EARLY. ..IMY.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX... 29698033 28048007 27658032 27748091 28368161 28858189 29668153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 06:07:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 01:07:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140606.i7E66cV15138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140605 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN GA....FAR ERN SC AND ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140605Z - 140800Z AS HURRICANE CHARLIE APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE CHARLIE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL MOVING NNEWD AT 25 MPH. THE HEAVY RAINBANDS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC AND NC AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. VAD WIND PROFILES ALONG THE SRN COAST OF NC SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BELOW 1 KM. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 800 TO 1000 METERS AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WILL MAKE TORNADOES A THREAT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 09ZZ. ..BROYLES.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX... 32818069 34667940 35687844 35617775 35117704 34587733 34007775 32937843 31787928 30797996 30908073 31338139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 06:59:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 01:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140659.i7E6xMV28926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140658 TXZ000-NMZ000-140900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140658Z - 140900Z AN ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR WITH NEW STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH A 850 MB JET OF ABOUT 30 KT WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY TRACK SWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING SSEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH HAS INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11 C AND THE STRONG SHEAR MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35930373 36210341 36340265 36180201 35610160 34930153 34540228 34570333 35250364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 12:39:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 07:39:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408141239.i7ECd5V25538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141237 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-141430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...ERN NC...SE VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 141237Z - 141430Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS HURRICANE CHARLEY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF CHARLESTON WITH A NNEWD MOVEMENT AT ABOUT 35 MPH. RAINBANDS AHEAD OF THE CENTER ARE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS ERN SC AND ERN NC. THE MHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 1700 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 500 METERS AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAIN. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS HURRICANE CHARLEY APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH SC AND WILMINGTON NC. AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SPREADS NWD... ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO NW INTO REMAINDER OF NERN NC...SERN VA AND PSBLY SERN MD. ..BROYLES/EVANS.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 36317518 34897598 32657783 32127912 32738040 33498046 35367933 37397758 37787678 37467564 36867507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 18:36:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 13:36:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408141835.i7EIZfV03836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141834 NCZ000-VAZ000-142030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753... VALID 141834Z - 142030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA...ALONG AND E OF THE TRACK OF CHARLEY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF CHARLEY INVOF OAJ /JACKSONVILLE NC/...MOVING NNEWD AT AROUND 3O TO 35 KT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES UPSTREAM OF CHARLEY ACROSS NERN NC AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PAMLICO / ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...WHERE UP TO 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE COMBINED WITH MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SMALL SUPERCELLS. ..GOSS.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34667822 35967724 36817603 35707550 35257556 34647650 34567716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 18:56:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 13:56:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408141855.i7EIthV10207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141854 OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141854Z - 142100Z ISOLATED SVR HAIL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF SERN CO/NCENTRAL AND NERN NM WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NE OVER ERN CO/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW CENTERED JUST SE OF DEN AND ANOTHER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF LA JUNTA. A LEE TROUGH CONNECTED THESE LOWS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IN NCENTRAL NM. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD AID IN REMOVAL OF THE REMAINING CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH/LOW CENTERS...AS WELL AS PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL CO/NCENTRAL NM. STRONGEST MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CO/WRN NEB...WHERE 20-25 KTS CONTINUES TO BE SAMPLED BY AREA PROFILERS. BACKED 10 KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. FARTHER SOUTH OVER MOST OF ERN NM...MID LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN DECREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30 KTS. LACK OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AS EVIDENT BY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 500 MB FROM REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND THUS MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW CENTERS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 35890502 37380549 39790478 41610416 41600329 40340229 39130208 36200328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 20:18:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 15:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408142017.i7EKHpV01412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142016 NVZ000-CAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 142016Z - 142245Z VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHAIN OF THE COASTAL MTNS FROM NERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY INTO ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE ERN/SRN SIDES OF OTHER MTNS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION OF SERN CA AND FAR SRN NV. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER VORT CENTER LOCATED OVER FAR SRN NV TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS. MODEST NELY MID LEVEL FLOW AND BACKED ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A VERY STRONG UPSLOPE PATTERN INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S UP TO 3000 FT...PW VALUES FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES PER REGIONAL 18Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS...WILL AID IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THESE MTNS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS IN SRN CA AND THE SRN SLOPES OF MTNS IN FAR SRN NV AND FAR ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...LOX... 32551638 33881691 34301803 34581800 34831752 36471567 36491472 33961489 33501622 32551601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 21:47:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 16:47:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408142146.i7ELkpV27827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142145 COZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 142145Z - 142315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER ECENTRAL CO SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH ELBERT INTO EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER ECENTRAL CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THEY MOVE SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO SERN CO. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE REGION OF SERN CO AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37340458 38070512 40310352 40450279 38910235 37550214 37020327 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 22:30:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 17:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408142230.i7EMUQV07578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142228 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NC AND SERN VA/COASTAL MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753... VALID 142228Z - 150000Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR MAINLY EXTREME ERN NC AND SERN VA. TORNADO WATCH MAY NOT BE EXTENDED NWD AS CHARLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT 22Z...RADAR INDICATES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER ABOUT 20 NNW ECG. THE MOTION THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN NNEWD NEAR 30 KT...WHICH PLACES THE CENTER NEAR ORF AT 00Z AND ABOUT 15 NE WAL AT 03Z. THE WINDS IN THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOST ERN BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR ORF TO 10 EAST ECG TO 25 W HSE. HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NNEWD...THE BAND ON THE EAST SIDE OF CHARLEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFF SHORE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER AS IT TRACKS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...BUT GIVEN THE SMALL AREA AND WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE...ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX... 35097599 35837597 36597669 38587494 37777418 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 00:54:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 19:54:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408150053.i7F0rhV10561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150052 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-150245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 150052Z - 150245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION OFFSETS BEGINNINGS OF DIURNAL COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NERN NM AND REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOSTLY NON SEVERE MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT. MODERATE NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH 20 KTS SAMPLED BY AMA VWP ALONG WITH INCREASING 20-25 KT 850 MB SELY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS STORM AND OTHERS NEARBY SHOULD CONGEAL WITH CONVECTION DRIVEN BY MODERATE OUTFLOW OVER NERN NM. HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34450359 35060463 35720426 36810315 36770154 36180089 34370215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 08:45:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 03:45:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408150844.i7F8iYV04553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150842 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-151045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150842Z - 151045Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HEAVY RAIN SPREADS INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS PRESENT JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS FAR ERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL MAKE ROTATING STORMS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAIN. VAD WIND PROFILES IN ERN MA SHOW VEERED WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 2 KM. THIS COMBINED WITH LCLS AROUND 600 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ..BROYLES.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 40407262 40617305 40937347 41317335 41867304 42537226 42807181 43107076 43016975 42186933 41536964 40467136 40307207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 18:35:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 13:35:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408151835.i7FIZ3V13497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151833 NCZ000-152030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NC COASTAL PLAIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151833Z - 152030Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARALLEL TO AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND FROM THE NC COAST. THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ALONG AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG/. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT ILM TO EWN TO THE PAMLICO SOUND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO WATCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER FLOW. ..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... 34527743 34407783 34587815 34807799 35007769 35387701 35547642 35507598 35167587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 18:45:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 13:45:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408151844.i7FIidV16861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151843 SDZ000-NEZ000-152045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN...CENTRAL AND ERN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151843Z - 152045Z ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN SD...SHOULD BE LATER IN THIS AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 20Z. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES BEGINNING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN SD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF PHP SWWD TO NEAR CDR NEB. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL SD TO THE WEST OF PIR ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND OVER ERN SD TO THE SOUTH OF ABR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EVIDENT ON RECENT REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PER EXPANDING STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER SWRN NEB...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42620399 43530211 44350056 45609851 45249769 44789718 42610016 41750288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 19:58:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 14:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408151957.i7FJvdV05915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151955 TXZ000-NMZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM EWD INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151955Z - 152230Z AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN NM EWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG DEEP LAYER CONFLUENT AXIS AND MODERATE-HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN TX. UPPER VORT CENTERS OVER SWRN NM AND SWRN TX WILL CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ERN NM. CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDES OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SERN CO AND A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DYING CONVECTION OVER OK WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING A DEEP LAYER OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE REGION FROM WCENTRAL INTO NWRN TX AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST MID LEVELS WITH PW/S FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THEREFORE...WITH EXPECTED EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION...FOCUSED E-W ORIENTED REGION OF DEEP CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33930614 33930799 33230844 32630793 32120676 31990590 32040450 32230286 32410203 32759965 33489924 33899951 34200052 34080142 34020415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 20:09:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 15:09:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408152008.i7FK8cV09509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152007 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152007Z - 152200Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM NCENTRAL INTO SCENTRAL CO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE MTNS INTO THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF DEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOUR AND OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AREA OF FAR SERN WY. FLOW HAS BECOME PRIMARILY DUE ELY OVER THE FRONT RANGE ENHANCING UPSLOPE INTO THE REGION. 20 KT NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE LOWER WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF DEN AND OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORM MOTIONS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD BE SSWLY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37080488 37370517 38040538 38680557 39210582 40270552 41060513 41500447 41360411 40730368 39430388 37130412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 21:39:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 16:39:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408152139.i7FLdOV02840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152138 NVZ000-CAZ000-152345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA...PORTIONS OF SERN CA AND SWRN NV CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 152138Z - 152345Z UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ENHANCED MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JET RELATED CIRRUS STREAKS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD OVER THE SRN CENTRAL VALLEY/CENTRAL COAST REGION. UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MERCED HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENHANCEMENT OF FLOW. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SRN SIERRA NV SWD INTO SWRN NV AND SERN CA. AROUND 30 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ROTATION AND STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH DESERT REGION OF SWRN NV/SERN CA...WILL AID IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 IN/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 35211821 35841831 36861852 37211875 37541893 37911859 37871766 37241647 36681557 36271525 34871497 34241505 34001555 33951596 34411739 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 22:03:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 17:03:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408152203.i7FM3WV09035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152201 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-160000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754... VALID 152201Z - 160000Z CONTINUE WW 754. NEW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN SD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ALLIANCE NEB. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 40 KT CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL HELP FOCUS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUST EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW...ACROSS THE CHAMBERLAIN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREA BY 16/00Z. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEAR/NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ..KERR.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44159825 44569741 44899665 44899525 44349458 43779453 43469476 43109512 42709598 42679696 42519868 42460001 41970147 41640221 42150286 43200247 44100010 44089922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 00:16:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 19:16:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408160015.i7G0FgV09676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160014 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN NEB...ERN SD...CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754... VALID 160014Z - 160215Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEYOND 02Z...BUT NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 754 TIL 02Z EXPIRATION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA... LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE FROM THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ABOVE STABLE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST... ...ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ONGOING STORMS NEAR ALLIANCE MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ..KERR.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 40830329 42070330 42520163 42960011 43819809 44849672 45599633 46329563 46469443 45789314 44519331 43419477 42949666 42399877 41880122 41650230 40730279 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 06:47:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 01:47:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408160646.i7G6kiV25846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160645 KSZ000-COZ000-160845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160645Z - 160845Z A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING SWD THROUGH FAR WRN KS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NW OK TO NWRN KS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS WRN KS ARE STILL BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS. SLY SFC WINDS AND SSWLY FLOW AT 850 MB IS RESULTING IN VEERED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT LINE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD AT 30 MPH INTO SW KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37180204 39490268 39560039 37419987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 17:41:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:41:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408161740.i7GHeuV09584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161739 NMZ000-AZZ000-161845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN AZ AND SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161739Z - 161845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN AZ INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SPREAD SEWD INTO SWRN NM. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AROUND TUS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A BAND OF 20-30 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SERN AZ AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS WNWWD TOWARD PHX IS DESTABILIZING AS WELL... SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WEAK MEAN FLOW AND HIGH PW VALUES /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED ON 14Z TUS SOUNDING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. IF RADAR/ SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...A PORTION OF THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK AND MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..PETERS.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31631197 32361266 33081344 33621334 34091263 33481137 33151078 33250915 33090777 32070749 31500771 31170880 31271109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 17:56:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:56:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408161756.i7GHuQV15709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161754 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-162000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL NV...FAR SERN CA...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161754Z - 162000Z THE FIRST FEW ATTEMPTS AT THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS OF FAR SRN NV...IN A REGION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN NYE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SERN CA...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT. RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z DRA SOUNDING INDICATE THAT ONLY 30-50 J/KG OF CINH REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THAT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN BY AROUND 19Z. BELT OF 20-25 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA GIVEN ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL NV. NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS A RESULT OF GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH CENTERED OVR NRN NV AND LOW TROUGH OVER SERN CA SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED OVER NRN/CENTRAL NV...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... 34871609 36061656 36751632 37181627 38001670 38911726 39891661 39861535 38661350 37401279 36051289 35091329 34741417 34681567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 20:55:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 15:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162055.i7GKtVV29946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162052 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND SCENTRAL KS/ FAR NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162052Z - 162315Z ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN OK PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MARGINAL. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER FAR SWRN KS AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER EAST...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE HAS MADE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SLOWER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DDC TO NEAR GBD/PTT AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 5-10 KTS COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36770393 36740386 36140389 35910292 36220084 36349932 36819721 37959694 38149774 38169951 37000235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 20:58:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 15:58:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162057.i7GKvnV30644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162055 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND SCENTRAL KS/ FAR NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162055Z - 162330Z ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN OK PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MARGINAL. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER FAR SWRN KS AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER EAST...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE HAS MADE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SLOWER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DDC TO NEAR GBD/PTT AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 5-10 KTS COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36770393 36740386 36140389 35910292 36220084 36349932 36819721 37959694 38149774 38169951 37000235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 21:05:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 16:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162105.i7GL5BV01252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162103 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162103Z - 162200Z AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT FSD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NERN TO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A WARM FRONT ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDED EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IA. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND SWWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AIR MASS AND WEAKENING CAP. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CURRENTLY INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED TO UNCAPPED AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CU/TCU PER VIS IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH...THUS SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42759772 44059771 44289579 43549489 42459471 41279582 41079709 41539874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 23:51:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 18:51:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162350.i7GNofV27063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162349 IAZ000-170145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 755... VALID 162349Z - 170145Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. MOST INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN SOUTH OF MASON CITY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS MAXIMIZED ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...NOW NORTH OF SIOUX CITY. HOWEVER...MORE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE UPSTREAM TOWARD SURFACE LOW...SUPPORTED BY FORCED ASCENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST/CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD... 42879538 43149436 42869282 42249258 41739233 41399288 41269381 41579464 42049525 42529588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 00:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 19:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408170030.i7H0UxV06678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170029 AZZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 170029Z - 170230Z ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN/ERN PHOENIX METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR IN THIS AREA. SHORT DURATION AND EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL OCCUR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM TUS INDICATED A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER SRN AZ WITH PW/S AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY HAS AIDED IN A MORE WLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF WCENTRAL AZ WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE CENTRAL RIM WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON THE WRN RIM ENHANCING THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL IN THIS AREA. 10-15 KT BACKGROUND NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL SHOULD AID IN ACCELERATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SWD AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE PHX METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PHX METRO AREA AND WHEN THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION LINE MOVING SWD OUT OF THE RIM...SHOULD AID IN SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AND GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/SVR HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32961180 32981303 33461341 34411333 34551317 34181140 33811111 33451099 33211142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 01:56:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 20:56:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408170156.i7H1uKV31321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170154 ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 755... VALID 170154Z - 170400Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 02Z. NEED FOR A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO STABILIZE SOUTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE DEVELOPING INVERSION LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 06Z...AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41819642 42659494 42529373 42239267 41719106 41099100 40719153 40759278 41279406 41449474 41749555 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 17:59:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 12:59:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408171759.i7HHxFL19109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171757 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-171900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171757Z - 171900Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19Z. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN WI TO FAR SERN IA TO NERN KS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN IA APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATTM...BUT CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE ALREADY WEAK CAP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CU HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER NERN IL /EAST OF RFD/. THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN IA WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY...WEAKENING INHIBITION...AND AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NERN IL TO NRN MO. INCREASING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846 39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 18:40:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 13:40:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408171840.i7HIeNL05371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171838 NMZ000-AZZ000-172115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 171838Z - 172115Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SERN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE MOVING SSEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SERN AZ AND INCREASING DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. RECENT VWP DATA FROM PHOENIX AND TUCSON SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL NWLY 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ HAVE BEEN SELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT. THE DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED ROTATION IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE PHX METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR TUS...WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPES EXISTS. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR PLATEAU REGION OF NERN AZ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT AS CONVECTION MOVE SEWD INTO THIS AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND ADJACENT LOWER MTNS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31521166 32331213 33311228 34811300 35491300 36961217 36840939 34500897 33470910 32390912 31350914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 20:19:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 15:19:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172019.i7HKJUL20051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172017 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN CA...FAR SRN NV AND NWRN AZ CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 172017Z - 172215Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUPPORTED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SRN CA WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD UPSTREAM ON THE WEST SLOPES OF MTN RANGES IN FAR SRN NV...SERN CA AND THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM/GRAND CANYON AREA OF NWRN AZ. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN NWRN AZ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL VWP AND SFC DATA SUGGEST DEEP WLY FLOW INTO THE REGION ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SLC AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD FROM SWRN CA. MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER NOAA PW SAT IMAGERY EXISTED OVER THE REGION. 18Z PHX SOUNDING FURTHER SUPPORTED THIS. MODERATE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON THE WRN FACING PORTIONS OF MTN RANGES IN THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND WWD BACKBUILDING WITH TIME ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 33811647 34891669 36591533 36461388 35811292 34881296 34471324 34031451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 21:01:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 16:01:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172101.i7HL10L06503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172059 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO/FAR SERN IA/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN IL...AND INTO NRN IND/SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756... VALID 172059Z - 172200Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN WW 756 FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD WHICH MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI BY 22-23Z. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM WITHIN WW 756 INTO NWRN IND HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER SWRN LOWER MI WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW...WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40759231 42538765 42738452 41838445 40728593 40288774 38479230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:06:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:06:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172205.i7HM5pL04515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172204 MOZ000-KSZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL MO...CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172204Z - 180000Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT. PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER AREA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO/SALINA KS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH HAVE BEEN FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF ANTICYCLONIC HIGH-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE AT LEAST WEAK/INHIBITIVE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 3000 J/KG...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18/00-01Z. HOWEVER...BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...LACK OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN INHIBITION/WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALL SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38839810 38969703 39039577 39159486 39299405 39189340 38639302 38309387 38119490 37899634 37989758 38439850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:57:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172257.i7HMveL23833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172255 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172255Z - 180100Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W NEBRASKA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SE WY AND NE PANHANDLE...AND THESE STORMS ARE NOW PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS W NE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE WY...AND WILL BE MOVING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS...SUGGESTING STORM CLUSTER COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NOTE: GRAPHIC FOR THIS MCD MAY BE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LOCAL SOFTWARE PROBLEMS. ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846 39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:59:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:59:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172259.i7HMx2L24602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172255 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172255Z - 180100Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W NEBRASKA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SE WY AND NE PANHANDLE...AND THESE STORMS ARE NOW PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS W NE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE WY...AND WILL BE MOVING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS...SUGGESTING STORM CLUSTER COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NOTE: GRAPHIC FOR THIS MCD MAY BE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LOCAL SOFTWARE PROBLEMS. ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846 39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:59:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:59:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172258.i7HMwtL24584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172257 ILZ000-MOZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MO INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756... VALID 172257Z - 180030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 756 TIL 18/00Z. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION. SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR/JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE INSTABILITY BECAME MAXIMIZED IN PEAK HEATING...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE THIS HAS BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO MISSOURI. THUS...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA OF CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS IN NARROW CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39689130 39899045 40219029 40458979 40668890 40758813 40318767 40008772 39338854 39038963 39069054 39169106 39299170 39389184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 23:00:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 18:00:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172300.i7HN04L25021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172257 ILZ000-MOZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MO INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756... VALID 172257Z - 180030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 756 TIL 18/00Z. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION. SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR/JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE INSTABILITY BECAME MAXIMIZED IN PEAK HEATING...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE THIS HAS BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO MISSOURI. THUS...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA OF CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS IN NARROW CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39689130 39899045 40219029 40458979 40668890 40758813 40318767 40008772 39338854 39038963 39069054 39169106 39299170 39389184  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 23:18:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 18:18:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172318.i7HNICL31013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172316 NEZ000-SDZ000-180115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172316Z - 180115Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W NEBRASKA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SE WY AND NE PANHANDLE...AND THESE STORMS ARE NOW PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS W NE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE WY...AND WILL BE MOVING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS...SUGGESTING STORM CLUSTER COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42990332 42450361 41660361 41190348 40960151 41099971 42669941 43030128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 17:26:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:26:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408181726.i7IHQ3L07806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181724 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN PA/NJ SWWD INTO ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181724Z - 181900Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PARTS OF ERN MD/DE SWWD INTO ERN VA WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH /EXTENDING FROM E OF ABE TO NEAR CHO/...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER... GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 08/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 36657883 37807869 39377710 40757543 41227471 41087385 40537364 39237425 37187544 36757621 36557669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 17:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408181731.i7IHV6L10613@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181727 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/MUCH OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181727Z - 181830Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR SERN MN...MUCH OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ARROW HEAD REGION OF MN SSWWD TO ALONG THE WRN WI/EAST CENTRAL MN BORDER TO FAR SERN SD. LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES BY MID AFTERNOON AROUND 1000 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY DURING THE LAST HOUR SHOWED A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION 40-60 NM AHEAD OF THE APPARENT SURFACE FRONT...AND LOCATED FROM 30 N IWD TO 20 N EAU AT 17Z. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY... STRONG KINEMATICS WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 08/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46949045 47328990 47408792 46918564 44788673 43178766 42978942 43129158 43609355 44379273  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 00:28:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 19:28:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408190028.i7J0SRL12219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190026 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-190230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / NERN KS / NRN MO / SRN IA / CENTRAL IL / SRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760...761... VALID 190026Z - 190230Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 760 AND 761. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS MOVING EWD / ESEWD ACROSS WW 760 AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ESEWD ACROSS PARTS WW 761 IN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW 760...AND STORMS SHOULD DIURNALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS FROM SERN IA / NERN MO SEWD INTO SRN IN...WHERE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FROM THE WSW INTO THIS REGION...EXPECT BOTH PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT AND ORIENTATION OF INSTABILITY AXIS TO RESULT IN ESELY MCS MOTION ACROSS WW 761. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 41359127 41278916 39968541 38298530 39749111 39719231 38939780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 02:42:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 21:42:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408190242.i7J2g3L25341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190240 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA / NERN MO / CENTRAL IL / SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760...761... VALID 190240Z - 190415Z MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 760 / WRN PORTIONS OF WW 761...BUT WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 19/04Z. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS 36 TO 50 KT MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF MCS -- A BOWING SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED MESOLOW MOVING ACROSS PEORIA AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WOODFORD AND MCLEAN COUNTIES IN IL. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME. THEREFORE...NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 39899351 40439272 40669025 40848957 40228717 39278866 39849136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 17:42:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:42:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191742.i7JHglL15949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191741 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN OH/SWRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191741Z - 191845Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NWRN PA SWWD ACROSS NRN OH TO CENTRAL IND/IL...WHILE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDED GENERALLY E-W FROM SWRN PA TO CENTRAL OH. THE LATTER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATED CU FIELD DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CAP HAS WEAKENED. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/. STRONG WLY WINDS /40+ KT AOA 1.5-2 KM/ WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS. STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG WLY WINDS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40098476 40348386 40638179 40808051 40687894 39467949 39348185 39258430 39388477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 17:53:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:53:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191753.i7JHr1L20380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191751 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX...WRN LA...SWRN AR CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL VALID 191751Z - 192045Z THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF E TX AND ADJOINING PORTIONS AR/LA...MAINLY WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 50 NM OF A LINE FROM HOU...TXK...HOT. PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES AROUND 3 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY IN SOME LOCALES AND RATES COMMONLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS. A FEW CELLS MAY ROTATE OVER PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE TX WITH MARGINAL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL OR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS...BUT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THREAT SUGGESTS WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING OVER MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA...E AND SE OF EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION NEAR SPS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAKENING CAP...SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW FORMING OVER UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND EXPECTED TO EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX AREA. EXPECT MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG...SUPPORTED BY 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...I.E. 1.75-2 INCH PW AND RH AOA 50 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE. SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS ENTIRE SWATH...BUT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL MCS FROM LFK AREA NWD THROUGH GGG AREA TO NEAR TXK. IN LATTER CORRIDOR EXPECT NUMEROUS MERGING/TRAINING CELLS. MEANWHILE...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS NEAR SRN/SERN EDGE OF MCS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION OVER E-CENTRAL TX WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG...INCREASING WWD INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX. LCLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1500 M AGL INTO PEAK HEATING/MIXING. ANOTHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION MAY BE NEEDED NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR LATTER AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30949333 30359373 29919428 29479547 29599610 30719631 31779633 32099564 32529528 33749442 34879378 34809309 33669261 31389321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 19:13:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 14:13:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191913.i7JJDIL27107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191911 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY/WRN MA/VT/WRN-NRN NH/WRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191911Z - 192045Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NY AND ACROSS WRN MA/VT TO WRN-NRN NH/WRN ME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD ACROSS WRN NY TO NWRN PA. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA VADS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 45957023 45117143 44987266 43757412 43067512 42217619 41697474 41757358 43677158 45876932 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 19:45:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 14:45:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191945.i7JJj6L10337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191942 TXZ000-192215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191942Z - 192215Z TSTMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z OVER NRN HILL COUNTRY AND EWD ACROSS ACT AREA. ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EVIDENT GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED BOUNDARY/STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS. RESIDUAL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX AND NERN TX /SWRN AR. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THAT COMPLEX EXTENDING SWWD TO AROUND 20 SE CRS...THEN WWD ACROSS NRN MCLENNAN COUNTY TO COKE COUNTY. AIR MASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER NERN TX BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY DEEP/FRESH COLD POOL GENERATION BY MCS...HOWEVER INSOLATION WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY W OF I-45 AND AWAY FROM CONVECTION. BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED N PAST ACT AND SHOULD SHIFT TO NEAR A CRS...BWD...20 N SJT LINE BY 21Z. SEPARATE/WEAKER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- GENERATED BY INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SE TX -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM AROUND FREESTONE COUNTY SSEWD ALONG I-45...INTERSECTING FIRST BOUNDARY SSE OF CRS AND PROVIDING EFFECTIVE ERN BOUND FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF ACT AND ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS. VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3 KM SRH WILL REACH 150-300 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 100-250 J/KG DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON -- MAXIMIZED IN BWD-ACT CORRIDOR. THIS ALSO WILL CORRESPOND TO NRN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. NARROW ZONE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 30-35 KT...35-45 J/KG BRN SHEAR...MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND CINH AOB 25 J/KG. GIVEN VERY RICH LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OVER REGION...EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED AS WELL....WITH RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... 32009925 32219793 32259670 32029621 31719605 31459619 31479716 31619949 31750004 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 20:48:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 15:48:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192048.i7JKm3L07288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192046 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ORE...EXTREME SERN WA...SWRN ID...NERN NV...EXTREME NWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192046Z - 192315Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MOVE GENERALLY SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF MARGINAL AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF SEVERE THREAT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA -- ONE OVER NWRN ORE AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN MT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND...IN COMBINATION WITH INSOLATION...CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM ABOVE WELL-MIXED...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN ABOUT 50-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM ALW...BKE...50 SW BOI...ENV. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY RANGE FROM MID 40S TO UPPER 50S F...WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS OF BELOW 20 KT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS TO NEAR-SFC KINEMATIC FIELDS MAY AUGMENT BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR... 40681463 41181607 41921753 42271963 43431841 44512039 45411858 45591820 45891792 46291756 46351714 46141663 45541633 45091626 44201667 43361687 42751593 42161440 41951354 41661338 41261343 40911380 40701429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 21:04:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:04:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192104.i7JL4XL15865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192102 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IND/MUCH OF CENTRAL OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763... VALID 192102Z - 192230Z ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OH TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OH TO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL PA. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ESEWD OF WW 762 ACROSS SERN PA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST OF WW 762. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS HAD LESS MIXING TIME...THAN OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE WEST. AIR MASS OVER SERN PA IS SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH WEAKER WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...IF THIS AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40328549 40848194 40797716 40247639 39597687 39727941 39598204 39278537 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 21:06:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:06:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192106.i7JL6oL16830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192046 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ORE...EXTREME SERN WA...SWRN ID...NERN NV...EXTREME NWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192046Z - 192315Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MOVE GENERALLY SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF MARGINAL AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF SEVERE THREAT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA -- ONE OVER NWRN ORE AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN MT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND...IN COMBINATION WITH INSOLATION...CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM ABOVE WELL-MIXED...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN ABOUT 50-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM ALW...BKE...50 SW BOI...ENV. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY RANGE FROM MID 40S TO UPPER 50S F...WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS OF BELOW 20 KT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS TO NEAR-SFC KINEMATIC FIELDS MAY AUGMENT BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR... 40681463 41181607 41921753 42271963 43431841 44512039 45411858 45591820 45891792 46291756 46351714 46141663 45541633 45091626 44201667 43361687 42751593 42161440 41951354 41661338 41261343 40911380 40701429  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 21:23:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:23:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192123.i7JLN2L24437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192102 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IND/MUCH OF CENTRAL OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763... VALID 192102Z - 192230Z ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OH TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OH TO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL PA. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ESEWD OF WW 762 ACROSS SERN PA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST OF WW 762. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS HAD LESS MIXING TIME...THAN OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE WEST. AIR MASS OVER SERN PA IS SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH WEAKER WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...IF THIS AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40328549 40848194 40797716 40247639 39597687 39727941 39598204 39278537  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 22:21:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 17:21:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192221.i7JMLrL18871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192220 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192220Z - 200015Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NW TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND MODEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TCC PROFILER INDICATING SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG SHEAR PROFILE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...BUT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..LEVIT.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32710023 33459915 34139935 34790000 34020165 33580267 33180321 32520314 32460143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 22:51:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 17:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192251.i7JMptL29915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192250 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192250Z - 200015Z STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN MO AND INTO SRN IL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN IL ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. MODEST /AROUND 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / LONGEVITY...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES NEWD OUT OF NERN OK AND 30 TO 35 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS / SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38129115 38738896 38588709 38118700 37408838 36939060 37089173 37499173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 23:28:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 18:28:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192328.i7JNSWL10931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192326 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN IND / CENTRAL OH / SWRN AND S CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763... VALID 192326Z - 200030Z STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WW 762 AND 763 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 20/00Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39798490 40618112 40537875 40067839 39488456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 00:29:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 19:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408200029.i7K0TnL32152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200028 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA / NRN DE / MD / NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 764... VALID 200028Z - 200200Z STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. EVENING IAD RAOB INDICATES FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR...BUT CAP IS INDICATED...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ONGOING STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39937726 39747574 38577653 38307808 38477867 39167812 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 06:31:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 01:31:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408200631.i7K6VNL20864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200627 TXZ000-200800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200627Z - 200800Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LINE MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE LBB AREA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM WICHITA FALLS TX EXTENDING WSWWD TO HOBBS NM. A LINE OF STORMS IS NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL STILL EXIST WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ALSO...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CELLS MOVE OFF THE CAPROCK INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33240287 34110261 34640167 34120011 33209991 32180077 32530225 33240291  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 15:58:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 10:58:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408201559.i7KFxXL08767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201556 NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...PORTIONS SERN NY...NWRN CT...SRN VT/NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201556Z - 201800Z TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF HUDSON VALLEY IN NERN PA...NY...MA AND SRN VT. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD INTENSIFY...MOVING EWD OVER SERN NY AND PORTIONS WRN NEW ENGLAND....WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SUBSEQUENTLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA WHERE CAP IS WEAK BUT DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE LONGER. THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN MAINE WSWWD ACROSS SRN VT/NH TO ALB AREA...THEN ROUGHLY ORIENTED ALONG E-W PORTION OF NY/PA BORDER. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY S OF FRONT...PARTICULARLY FROM NERN PA EWD WHERE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS HAS ENABLED STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING...AMIDST WEAK CAPPING. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...WITH SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 80S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BECAUSE OF SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR...RESULTING IN HODOGRAPHS LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS. FORMATION OF SMALL BOWS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT 0-3 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...LATTER BEING STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER JET. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42007828 42397641 43087430 43537254 43487155 43057107 42707137 42287198 41827276 41557356 41357469 40967676 40827798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 17:41:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 12:41:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408201741.i7KHfiL28491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201739 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201739Z - 201945Z THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION SFC-BASED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FROM NERN MS ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN AL AND SRN-MIDDLE TN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN TN TO ROUGHLY 20 SE MKL. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. REGION IS LOCATED UNDER ENHANCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW -- I.E. 30-40 KT PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. THIS ALONG WITH MORE SLY COMPONENT TO SFC FLOW NEAR BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTES TO 100-200 J/KG SRH IN LOWEST 1 KM LAYER...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND ON INTERPOLATIONS BETWEEN VWPS AT BNA AND IN NRN AL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS AT 25-35 KT BUT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE THREAT ON SMALL SCALES. ALSO...LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS MAY FORM WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33458963 35138850 35868808 36048667 35758511 35418532 34998567 34138650 33538792 33338854 33258933 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 19:43:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 14:43:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408201943.i7KJhfL17273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201941 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 765...766... VALID 201941Z - 202145Z SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED NEAR A LINE FROM CON...ALB...ELM...FKL. SUPERCELLS OVER NRN MA HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER PAST HOUR OR TWO. TRAILING STORM MOVING FROM WORCESTER COUNTY INTO MIDDLESEX COUNTY MAY INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW FROM ERN STORM NEAR COAST. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT WSWWD ACROSS WRN MA...SERN NY...NY/PA BORDER REGION AND CENTRAL/NERN PA. BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS WW AREAS...BECAUSE OF MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS NRN/WRN PA...STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 766 ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM DE RIVER VALLEY EWD. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES BY 21Z WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL PA TO 2500 J/KG IN CENTRAL/ERN MA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER AND 150-200 J/KG SRH. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 43617064 41837058 41167443 42897443 42227446 40657446 40097875 41667876 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:04:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:04:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202004.i7KK44L26554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202002 TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202002Z - 202230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 1930Z...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM MAF TO 10N JCT TO 15N AUS TO 35 W LFK. IT APPEARS THAT A MESO LOW EXISTS ALONG THE WEST END OF THE OUTFLOW CENTERED OVER SERN MIDLAND COUNTY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE...IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/. CIN HAS ALSO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SJT WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND LEAVES SOME DOUBT AS TO TIMING OF INITIATION...THOUGH 18Z RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST CENTRAL TX DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. LARGE CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ENHANCED SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31760195 31620120 31560034 31419944 31199871 31039780 31259678 31469575 31379512 30959520 30369552 30139600 29989657 29759740 29729811 29929927 30079974 30560076 31020144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:05:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:05:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202005.i7KK5EL27312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...WRN/NRN MD...EXTREME SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202230Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z WITH RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME QUITE BUOYANT AMIDST STRONG HEATING AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES COMMONLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N ACROSS WWS 765/766 BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS COMPENSATING SOMEWHAT FOR WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS TO KEEP SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP COLD POOLS WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG RESULTANT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40097876 40477587 39817617 39147653 38387731 37787878 37828066 38048098 38648129 39228119 39817971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:06:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:06:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202006.i7KK6WL27806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202002 TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202002Z - 202230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 1930Z...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM MAF TO 10N JCT TO 15N AUS TO 35 W LFK. IT APPEARS THAT A MESO LOW EXISTS ALONG THE WEST END OF THE OUTFLOW CENTERED OVER SERN MIDLAND COUNTY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE...IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/. CIN HAS ALSO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SJT WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND LEAVES SOME DOUBT AS TO TIMING OF INITIATION...THOUGH 18Z RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST CENTRAL TX DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. LARGE CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ENHANCED SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31760195 31620120 31560034 31419944 31199871 31039780 31259678 31469575 31379512 30959520 30369552 30139600 29989657 29759740 29729811 29929927 30079974 30560076 31020144  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:06:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:06:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202006.i7KK6lL27929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...WRN/NRN MD...EXTREME SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202230Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z WITH RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME QUITE BUOYANT AMIDST STRONG HEATING AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES COMMONLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N ACROSS WWS 765/766 BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS COMPENSATING SOMEWHAT FOR WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS TO KEEP SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP COLD POOLS WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG RESULTANT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40097876 40477587 39817617 39147653 38387731 37787878 37828066 38048098 38648129 39228119 39817971  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:38:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:38:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202037.i7KKbxL09207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202035 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN...PORTIONS ERN TN AND NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767... VALID 202035Z - 202200Z LINE OF TSTMS IS MOVING EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/NRN AL...FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY AL TO GREENE COUNTY MS. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL/SWRN AL...PRIND GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVER NRN PORTION WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SRN MIDDLE TN SHOULD MOVE EWD 20-25 KT AS WELL TOWARD CHA AREA WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEVERE ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY FORMING AHEAD OF LINE AND MOVING ACROSS NERN AL TOWARD NWRN GA. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE PORTION OF WW REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 30-35 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH 150-200 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...DEEP AND RICH MOIST LAYER IN LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING YIELDS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN FCST SOUNDINGS. WITH SIMILARLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS ERN TN AND NWRN GA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E OF PRESENT WW. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE...SINCE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY DRIVE PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS INTO GA AND SERN TN BEFORE DISSIPATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 35798554 36128503 36248435 35868403 35288423 34288454 33588522 33318583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 22:50:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 17:50:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202250.i7KMonL31183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202248 TNZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN...AND FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767...770... VALID 202248Z - 202345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NERN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN...AND FAR WRN NC. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CONTINUE WW 767 AND 770. AT 2240Z...TWO CONVECTIVE LINES CONTINUE EWD AT 25-30KT. LEADING LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH ATL METRO REGION THROUGH 2330Z WITH NRN EXTENT AFFECTING ERN TN/FAR WRN NC DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TRAILING LINE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD POOL AND IS PRESENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR NWRN GA SWWD THROUGH E-CENTRAL AL. INTERACTION OF THIS LINE WITH CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33328675 34548608 35078563 35738504 36188451 36188312 34078392 33008430 33118536 33298578 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 23:16:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 18:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202317.i7KNH2L08047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202315 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA / NRN WV AND THE WV PANHANDLE / WRN MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 768... VALID 202315Z - 210045Z STRONG / LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO WW 771...AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKENING TREND NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGEST THAT WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 21/01Z EXPIRATION. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS WW EXIST IN A BROKEN N-S LINE FROM ELK COUNTY PA SWD INTO MINERAL COUNTY WV...THOUGH A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER WEAKENING OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 21/00Z. WITH STORMS WEAKENING / MOVING EWD INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 771...WATCH 770 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39277946 40257951 41107930 41047846 39217876 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 23:26:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 18:26:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202326.i7KNQpL11284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202325 TXZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 202325Z - 210100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769 CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL AND SWRN TX. A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...WITH RATES 2-3"/HR ...IS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z ACROSS TOM GREEN...CONCHO...MENARD...AND NERN SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. AT 2315Z...SMALL BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG STATIONARY LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF SJT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS FOR AT LEAST 1-2 ADDITIONAL HOURS. SJT VAD INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KT JUST NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 IN WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SJT AND MAF DURING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING CIN AND WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS BEGINS TO COOL THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30070259 32220258 31299891 29129891 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 00:23:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 19:23:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408210023.i7L0NfL29361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210022 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / SERN NY / NRN NM / CT / RI / MA / SRN NH / SRN VT / SRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 771... VALID 210022Z - 210145Z LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ATTM. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41447782 42057735 43497067 42277069 41267289 39897783 40387818 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 02:44:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 21:44:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408210244.i7L2imL06350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210242 LAZ000-TXZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX EWD INTO NRN LA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 210242Z - 210345Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD THROUGH LAMPASAS AND BURNET COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 769...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO LAMPASAS COUNTY HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF BOWING OUT. GUST FRONT SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION INDICATES THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THIS LINE SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO WEAKEN. CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING AND DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AND WW 769 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. FARTHER EAST...FROM ECENTRAL TX INTO WCENTRAL LA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29519899 29920059 31650081 31379899 31669773 32169619 32439397 32169275 31129240 30569573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 15:29:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 10:29:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211529.i7LFTmL13762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211527 FLZ000-GAZ000-211800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211527Z - 211800Z AIR MASS ACROSS NRN FL WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS TO SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM NASSAU/DUVAL/ST JOHNS COUNTIES SWWD TOWARD LEVY/HERNANDO/CITRUS COUNTIES. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LINE OF TSTMS -- NON-SEVERE AS OF 15Z -- WAS EVIDENT FROM SRN WARE/CHARLTON COUNTIES GA IN OKEFENOKEE SWAMP...SWWD ACROSS CEDAR KEY AREA OF FL. THIS CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE LINE WILL MOVE EWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NRN FL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z INTO SFC AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S F DEW POINTS AND TEMPS APCHG 90 F...AND MAY INTENSIFY. MEANWHILE...AS INSOLATION STEEPENS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER PENINSULA...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AND INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR BOTH COASTS. BECAUSE OF WEAK WLY COMPONENT OVER MOST OF N FL...ERN SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO COAST WHILE WRN ONE PENETRATES FARTHER INLAND. SEASONALLY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPS -- I.E., -9 TO -10 DEG C IN 12Z 500 MB THERMAL TROUGH -- CONTRIBUTE FURTHER TO BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS SEQUENCE... 1. CONVERGENCE LINE WITH W COAST SEA BREEZE NEXT 1-3 HOURS 2. NRN END OF CONVERGENCE LINE WITH E COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS DUVAL/NASSAU/ST JOHNS COUNTIES BEGINNING 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME 3. INLAND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS THEREAFTER. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29088298 30138239 30758187 30648153 30418143 30048133 29708137 29238162 28928182 28628203 28428240 28578250 28918265 29038282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 15:50:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 10:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211550.i7LFoLL21623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211548 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND LONG ISLAND...CT...RI...SRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211548Z - 211745Z BAND OF TSTMS -- EXTENDING AT 1530Z FROM ULSTER COUNTY NY SWWD ACROSS YORK COUNTY PA -- SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR PSBL WW. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THINNESS AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO 78-85 DEG F RANGE THROUGH 18Z. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST IN INFLOW SECTOR WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY LOW 70S F...PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH RH EXTENDING WELL PAST 850 MB. THIS SUPPORTS MLCAPES ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED OKX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION OF DAMAGING BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS IN CONVECTIVE LINE. OBSERVED VWP WINDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT FLOW IN 850-700 MB LAYER...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 50 KT IN 600-500 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39867687 41037518 41727411 41997325 42237183 42227106 42077083 41547091 41367126 41047190 40597326 40247378 39917408 39847542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 17:26:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 12:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211726.i7LHQBL24130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211724 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211724Z - 211930Z GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AND SERN VA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING FROM W-E AND BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 1630Z VIS IMAGERY INDICATES 50-60 NM WIDE MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM LOWER POTOMAC BASIN SWWD ALONG E EDGE OF PIEDMONT IN NC. STRONGEST HEATING IS OCCURRING E OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE CONFLUENCE LINE IN SFC WINDS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE AREAS. TEMPS IN UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S F...COMBINED WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE APCHG 3000 J/KG. 30-35 KT WINDS IN 900-700 MB LAYER CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NC/SERN VA WHERE STRENGTHING MIDLEVEL FLOW ALSO WILL AID DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MAIN WEAKNESS IS WITH CONVERGENCE AMIDST BROAD FETCH OF SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP IS NEARLY GONE...SO STORMS MAY INITIATE ON SUBTLE FOCI SUCH AS CONFLUENCE LINE...BAY/SEA BREEZES OR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG SERN NC SE BREEZE...AND THIS TREND MAY EXTEND NWD WITH TIME. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33877854 34247912 34727929 35097869 35747780 36477700 37597714 37917644 37847542 36967562 35887551 35237615 34687687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 18:22:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 13:22:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211822.i7LIMnL09485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211820 VAZ000-NCZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL VA...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211820Z - 212015Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...FROM DC/BWI AREA SWWD PAST LYH AND INTO MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF NC. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER INTO VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER VA/NC PIEDMONT...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST N OF BWI SWWD TO NERN CORNER OF TN...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM AROUND LYH SSWWD ACROSS CLT AREA. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING BETWEEN FRONT AND TROUGH OVER NC AS WELL AS INVOF FRONT. AIR MASS OVER PIEDMONT IS WARMING AGAIN AFTER PASSAGE OF CLOUD BAND MENTIONED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070. WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 70S F HELPING TO COUNTERACT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY 20Z. THIS AREA IS ON ERN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- 30-35 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...BASED ON VWP AND RUC FCST PROFILES. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS FARTHER E BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY VEERED SFC FLOW AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SPEEDS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN IN WW 773 DUE TO SMALLER 0-1 KM SHEARS AND WEAKER BUOYANCY...BUT SOME DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL STILL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN VA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 37237685 36507746 35867818 35497911 35288121 35758174 37507916 38407779 38127669 37757640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 19:10:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 14:10:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211910.i7LJAAL25131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211908 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...CT...RI...PORTIONS SERN PA...SERN NY...MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 772... VALID 211908Z - 212115Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW BOW/LEWP FEATURES WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND -- WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE GUST THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD 25-30 KT ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA. FOREGOING AIR MASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND IS CHARACTERIZED BY 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT DECREASED FROM EARLIER BECAUSE OF ANVIL SHADOWING AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. THIS STILL IS SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY FORWARD-PROPAGATING ACROSS REMAINDER SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF 30-50 KT/UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW. SEVERE THREAT WILL END BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND POSTFRONTAL CAA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE NJ AND SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING THERE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... 39737369 39717594 42717218 42726983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 20:37:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 15:37:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408212037.i7LKbiL21429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212035 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 773... VALID 212035Z - 212200Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES INITIATED ON SEA BREEZE BUT WILL BE PROPAGATING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE LIFT IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. 70 KT GUST REPORTED EARLIER IN DARE COUNTY NC. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED THERMAL/BUOYANCY AXIS W OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS VA/NC...ROUGHLY FROM 20 SE RIC TO SSC...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS 88-90 F AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OR DECEASE JUST SLIGHTLY IN THIS CORRIDOR OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DIABATIC HEATING MOVES PAST PEAK...AND WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION OVER PIEDMONT MOVING TOWARD WRN PORTION WW. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... 39737369 39717594 42717218 42726983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 21:08:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 16:08:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408212108.i7LL8fL31423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212106 SDZ000-NDZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0406 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212106Z - 212230Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM WRN BURLEIGH COUNTY SWWD INTO CNTRL GRANT COUNTY MOVING E AT 35-40KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 300-400 J/KG. RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45870200 47110110 47580015 47549878 46939854 45929841 44989870 44769991 44940129 45300193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 21:23:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 16:23:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408212123.i7LLNvL03704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212122 TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN CO...ERN NM...AND THE DAVIS MTNS AREA OF TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212122Z - 212315Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SWRN TX. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT 21Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE FROM 20N COS SWD TO NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. OTHER CELLS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM SWD TO 50SE GDP. STORM MOTIONS WERE GENERALLY SE AT 10-15 KT. SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS ERN NM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS SERN CO ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS CO /AROUND 30KT/...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED LESS ORGANIZATION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/SWRN TX...HOWEVER...CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SLOW EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NM MAY ENHANCE MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36840513 38360557 39210548 39660493 39720380 39400316 38050300 36520302 33910306 32590313 31780305 31190302 31010354 31080417 31520449 32620486 34330508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 17:14:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 12:14:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408221714.i7MHEJL03150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221711 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221711Z - 221915Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL MS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25KT INTO W-CENTRAL AL THROUGH 1830Z. DIURNAL HEATING HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MS AT 17Z. THIS MCV IS THE RESULT OF ERN TX CONVECTION YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THE MCV CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD IN MODEST SRN BRANCH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 J/KG DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD CU FIELD EAST OF ONGOING STORMS. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE WEAK INHIBITION...WITH ABSOLUTE CIN LESS THAN 25 J/KG. JACKSON VAD INDICATES 30KT WLY FLOW AT 3KM TO THE SW OF THE MCV. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 13 KFT SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 33508863 33508711 33468595 33138541 32648510 32088506 31778536 31638585 31578640 31638705 31748766 31808809 31898853 32218887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 19:22:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 14:22:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408221922.i7MJMlL21770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221920 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-222045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT...YELLOWSTONE AP AREA OF WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221920Z - 222045Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN MT AND NERN ID. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FROM ERN PORTION OF MTNS ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS OF WRN MT...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS YELLOWSTONE REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM LOW INVOF SMN TO INTERSECTION WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE INVOF LWT. STRONGEST REGIONAL SFC PRESSURE FALLS WERE ANALYZED AT 19Z ACROSS SWRN MT...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ID...AND NW CORNER OF WY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APCHG FROM PACIFIC NW. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES NWWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE WITH TIME OVER WHOLE REGION. EXPECT 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OVERSPREAD REGION. MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-750 J/KG ACROSS REGION BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z GTF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. BEST OVERLAP WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL MT SW-WNW OF LWT...WHERE STORMS MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT COULD DEVELOP INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44591125 44571225 45101299 46091382 46891413 48061354 48111149 47671018 47050923 45500833 45090895 44650980 44491078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 20:49:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 15:49:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408222049.i7MKnSL18437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222047 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222047Z - 222245Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS NERN TX PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO ADJACENT NWRN OK...THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF TCU FROM SWRN LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX SWWD INTO CARSON COUNTY...ROUGHLY COLOCATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE LINE THAT HAS PERSISTED IN SFC ANALYSES SINCE 14Z. AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF CONVECTIVE/CONFLUENCE LINE IS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH PEAK HEATING OCCURRING ATTM AND MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM SERN PANHANDLE AND SW OK. RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS NOW PRACTICALLY UNCAPPED. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO 60S WHERE NOW IN UPPER 50S...AND TO INCREASE INTO MID-UPPER 60S WHERE NOW IN LOW 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...AND EACH MODEL REASONABLY GENERATES PRECIP IN THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH SWD DISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MCV/TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN KS. PROFILER/VWP WINDS INDICATE 500 MB SPEED MAX OF 20-30 KT ACROSS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL OK...AND E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURVING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS...MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FOR STORM ROTATION...ESPECIALLY FOR DEVIANT SEWD CELL MOTIONS. EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35320128 35780083 36110058 36360037 36540015 36989985 37009953 36959922 36669902 35989933 35599949 35289987 35160046 35180107 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 22:04:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 17:04:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408222204.i7MM4kL10170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222202 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN NEB INTO NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222202Z - 230000Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY EWD THROUGH NERN NEB AND NW IA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IA SWWD THROUGH NRN NEB. A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB NEWD TO N CNTRL NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE E-W ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO NW IA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB PORTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 90. FARTHER EAST INTO IA...BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONFLUENT ZONE HAS SLOWED HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO BE REACHED IN THIS AREA. FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE MARGINAL AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME ROTATION AT TIMES AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 42170037 42339878 43129571 42629512 41979683 41209920 40180035 40110112 41130060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 23:59:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 18:59:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408222359.i7MNxHL13148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222357 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT...FAR ERN ID...AND NWRN/WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774... VALID 222357Z - 230130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS ERN ID INTO WRN/NWRN WY WITH LOCALIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS MT AT 23Z. A 999MB SURFACE LOW OVER S-CENTRAL MT LIES ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN CTB AND HVR. MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3MB/2HR CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. FURTHER EAST...COOLER AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED INTO NERN MT WHERE A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXISTS FROM ROUGHLY 15S GGW ESEWD INTO FAR SWRN ND. IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND ACROSS NWRN CONUS WITH STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF MT/WY THROUGH 09Z. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO THIS POINT. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IN LWT VICINITY AT 2330Z WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THERE. OTHER NARROW BANDS OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ERN ID AND FAR S-CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING REFLECTIVITY SEGMENTS. WIND GUSTS TO 37KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THE TRAILING LINE AT PIH AT 2302Z...WITH LINE MOTION BETWEEN 35-40KT. THIS BAND MAY BRING LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS TO THE MTNS OF NWRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL JET OF 60-65 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ..BANACOS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO... 43091242 45051286 45051286 47221241 47841227 48931220 48990720 45340762 43560814 42820902 42281101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 00:34:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 19:34:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408230034.i7N0YiL23612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230032 SDZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230032Z - 230230Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH 03Z. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...SO A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY. THE 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSER RATES AND A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN EWD MOVING LINE OF STORMS OVER EXTREME SWRN SD THAT DEVELOPED IN A ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH WY. ELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW UNDERNEATH WLY 25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS QUITE NARROW...AND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CAPE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..DIAL.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 44320168 43500032 43050123 43120245 44460325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 07:16:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 02:16:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408230717.i7N7HAL22645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230714 KSZ000-OKZ000-230915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN VALID 230714Z - 230915Z NEED FOR WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KS INTO THE GAGE OK AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED...AS IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED GRADUAL VEERING OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD STRENGTHENS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF WICHITA BY 12Z. CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT WILL BE MARGINALIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES. WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...RISK OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAIN MAY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW MOVING TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..KERR.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37279981 37579895 37829819 38119727 37999682 37379543 36759547 36409621 36369707 36159824 36349907 36509997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:01:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:01:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231901.i7NJ1xL17855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231859 NDZ000-MTZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231859Z - 232100Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ERN MT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD INTO WRN ND WITH THE TORNADO THREAT INCREASING BY 22Z. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SE MT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR SE MT INTO CNTRL SD. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S F...IS HELPING NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS ECNTRL MT. AS THESE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH EXISTS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO FAR WRN ND AND NW SD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 48560706 48810602 48350367 47520245 46780215 46040289 46000354 46080432 46670561 47270742 47740776 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:24:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:24:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231925.i7NJOxL30549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231922 SDZ000-NDZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ND AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231922Z - 232115Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD NWD INTO CENTRAL ND. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AT 19Z...DRYLINE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM FAR SERN MT SSWWD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE REGION. STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD ARE BOTH CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS FROM VTN-PIR-25 W MBG. AS STRONG UPPER VORT CENTER OVER E-CENTRAL MT CONTINUES EWD WITH ASSOCIATED 50KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING FROM WY INTO WRN SD...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A NNW-SSE LINE FROM THE ND BORDER ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-45KT AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTERSECTION OF NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER MAY PROVIDE A LOCAL FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL SRH AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD...WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL ND. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43960196 44870221 45710270 47710240 47849934 46079910 45539895 44899890 44089887 43559882 43129883 43059942 43130189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:25:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:25:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231925.i7NJPRL30787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231923 MOZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231923Z - 232030Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER MO WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZING OVER NW MO. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS WORKED OVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30 KT BEHIND THE LINE WHICH IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...THE SPEED OF THE LINE COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700 MB JET...WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38539386 39709388 40399313 40409158 38849140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:26:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:26:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231927.i7NJR1L31720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231922 SDZ000-NDZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ND AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231922Z - 232115Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD NWD INTO CENTRAL ND. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AT 19Z...DRYLINE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM FAR SERN MT SSWWD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE REGION. STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD ARE BOTH CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS FROM VTN-PIR-25 W MBG. AS STRONG UPPER VORT CENTER OVER E-CENTRAL MT CONTINUES EWD WITH ASSOCIATED 50KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING FROM WY INTO WRN SD...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A NNW-SSE LINE FROM THE ND BORDER ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-45KT AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTERSECTION OF NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER MAY PROVIDE A LOCAL FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL SRH AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD...WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL ND. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43960196 44870221 45710270 47710240 47849934 46079910 45539895 44899890 44089887 43559882 43129883 43059942 43130189  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:26:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:26:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231927.i7NJR6L31863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231923 MOZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231923Z - 232030Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER MO WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZING OVER NW MO. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS WORKED OVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30 KT BEHIND THE LINE WHICH IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...THE SPEED OF THE LINE COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700 MB JET...WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38539386 39709388 40399313 40409158 38849140  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:00:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:00:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232000.i7NK0sL19070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231958 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...AND FAR SERN SD...AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231958Z - 232200Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...AND FAR SERN SD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 30 SW LNK NNEWD TO 25 S SUX. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM A LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SAME CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL IA...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN SD EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IA. PRESENCE OF LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MINIMAL CIN. LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS THE LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NEB TO CENTRAL IA...WITH AREA VAD PROFILES SHOWING VALUES OF 10-15 KT. FURTHER NORTH...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER ALONG THE WARM FRONT /25KT/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ACROSS SERN SD...NRN IA...AND SRN MN. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40599589 41189515 41739287 42169234 42789189 43449180 44019228 43989451 43889629 43779743 42989769 42519791 42149809 41509814 40689784 40419761 40419686 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:38:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:38:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232039.i7NKdIL07990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232037 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEB...AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232037Z - 232230Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WRN NEB SWD INTO NWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AT 2030Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N-S FROM ROUGHLY 60W VTN TO 30 NW IML AND SWD ACROSS FAR WRN KS. INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG NEAR THE DRYLINE TO 3000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM BBW TO HLC. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSITY ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EWD AT ROUGHLY 15 KT AND ENCOUNTERS BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AREA PROFILES INDICATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 41170204 42020205 42950152 42959844 42029839 40259852 38919857 38990190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:52:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:52:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232052.i7NKqVL15112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232048 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NW OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232048Z - 232245Z ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM WRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXISTS ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH A CU FIELD EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION....FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CDS AT 00Z SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35119994 35800040 37490103 38430080 38589938 37169825 35539814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 22:32:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 17:32:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232233.i7NMXAL31888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232230 IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-240030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...EXTREME NRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232230Z - 240030Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA INTO SRN MN AND NERN SD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO OBSERVED LIFTING NWD THROUGH NRN IA AND INTO SERN SD. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY ROTATE...ESPECIALLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR UPDRAFT LONGEVITY. ALSO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 42979137 43259632 43809759 45739794 44149121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 22:36:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 17:36:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232237.i7NMb1L01110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232234 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-240030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/ERN KS/WRN AND SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232234Z - 240030Z PARTS OF ERN NEB/ERN KS AND WRN MO BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT NOW MOVING E ACROSS NRN MO ARCS FROM SW MO /NEAR SGF/ NNW ACROSS ERN KS INTO SE NEB /W OF LNK/. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS BOOSTED MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 2500 J/KG ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN WAKE OF MO UPPER VORT...BUILDING CU IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NE AND E CNTRL KS SUPPORT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWING STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OVER REGION. AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE /25-30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES IF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS DID INDEED FORM IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO SUPPORT INCREASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION LATER THIS EVENING. ..CORFIDI.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 36939391 36979492 37329578 37599625 38529709 39739755 41189771 41549659 39549504 38329373 37329310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 23:04:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 18:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232304.i7NN4xL12592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232302 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-240030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT...CENTRAL/WRN ND...AND NRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 775... VALID 232302Z - 240030Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2230Z...ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR A 996MB SURFACE LOW IN NERN MT SEWD ACROSS SWRN ND JUST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP DRYLINE. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL ND...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ NOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN ND. BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OF BIS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60 IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE AND ONGOING CONVECTION. BIS RADAR SUGGESTS MOST INTENSE CONVECTION NOW OVER HETTINGER COUNTY WILL CONTINUE NEWD...AND INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS MORTON COUNTY ND BETWEEN 00-01Z. CHARACTER OF CONVECTIVE ROLLS NEAR BIS RADAR AND STRONG VEERING IN BIS VAD SUGGEST THESE SUPERCELLS WILL ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADO PRODUCTION BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 20F AT BIS IS A BIT HIGH...BUT OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL ND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 44820277 48650495 48670075 44859887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 00:54:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 19:54:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240055.i7O0tBL22761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240053 SDZ000-NEZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN SD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NEB...EXTREME NE CO AND NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 776... VALID 240053Z - 240230Z THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM S CNTRL SD SWD THOUGH CNTRL AND SW NEB NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AREAS E OF WW 776 ACROSS E CNTRL NEB ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SWRN NEB. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE WITH AROUND 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN OVER TRIPP COUNTY IN SRN SD AND CUSTER COUNTY IN NEB AS OF 0035Z. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH SOME SWD PROPAGATION WHICH IS ALSO ENHANCING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN W CNTRL NEB WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW MERGERS ARE OCCURRING. SEVERE THREAT IS MORE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY BRIEFLY AS THEY DEVELOP IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING OUTFLOWS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL NEB IS SURGING RAPIDLY EWD. THIS MIGHT PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING E OF WW 776 THIS EVENING AS IT INTERCEPTS THE STRONGER INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 41999971 40310029 40030144 41230159 44210030 44529878 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 01:17:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 20:17:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240117.i7O1HmL31839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240115 NDZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775... VALID 240115Z - 240245Z WW 775 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW FARTHER EAST FOR PARTS OF E CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND. THIS EVENING A WARM FROM EXTENDS ACROSS SRN ND NWWD AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN ND. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD NWD INTO S CNTRL ND WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONGEST FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE COOLER REGIME N OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD ALONG DRYLINE AND IN WARM SECTOR APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN INCREASING CAP AND STRONGEST FORCING LIFTING NWD WITH TIME. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46089993 47480082 48570065 48789947 47199815 46089851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 02:14:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 21:14:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240214.i7O2EaL22339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240211 MOZ000-KSZ000-240345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND PARTS OF EXTREME WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 777... VALID 240211Z - 240345Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...MAINLY WITH TRAINING LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SWRN MO NWWD THROUGH NERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NERN KS...WHERE STRONG LIFT ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED. LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR IS ENHANCED N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING STORMS AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TRAIN ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37959442 37839578 38409672 39089727 39499721 39029489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 02:21:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 21:21:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240221.i7O2LVL25436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240219 COR MOZ000-KSZ000-240345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND PARTS OF EXTREME WRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 777... VALID 240219Z - 240345Z CORRECTED FOR TYPE OF WATCH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...MAINLY WITH TRAINING LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SWRN MO NWWD THROUGH NERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NERN KS...WHERE STRONG LIFT ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED. LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR IS ENHANCED N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING STORMS AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TRAIN ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37959442 37839578 38409672 39089727 39499721 39029489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 03:20:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 22:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240321.i7O3L3L15253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240318 MOZ000-KSZ000-240515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240318Z - 240515Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY SHIFT INTO PARTS OF WRN AND W CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WW IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF CNTRL KS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF THE KS PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LIFT IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH TIME...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE MO PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS IN NE KS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD INTO MO ALONG AND N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37289289 38319482 39309440 39099249 38349200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 04:33:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 23:33:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240434.i7O4YLL09565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240432 NDZ000-240600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 778... VALID 240432Z - 240600Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 778. THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL ND AT AROUND 30 KT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STORMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE LINE ARE CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND POSE THE GREATER THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. SOME DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY MAY OCCUR AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MN BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46539937 47689871 48629857 48779775 46389769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 08:04:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 03:04:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240804.i7O84wL11582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240802 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NE KS...SRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN VALID 240802Z - 241000Z LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING/ INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY NEAR TIGHTER 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI/ IOWA BORDER. BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS UPSTREAM ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHER STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ABOVE COLD POOL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...IN WAKE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN MISSOURI. THROUGH 12Z...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH MO AND OMAHA NEB...INTO AREAS OF IOWA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES. FORCING ON NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION/ORGANIZATION OF ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CAPE WILL REMAIN LARGE AS INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2 INCHES...INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME EXCESSIVE IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION. ..KERR.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 40849722 41149596 41559540 41569390 41019317 40399326 40289367 39799472 39879559 39989623 40119727 40349757 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 17:09:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 12:09:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408241710.i7OHALL13865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241708 MOZ000-ILZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...FAR SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241708Z - 241915Z A HAIL THREAT AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MO AND FAR SE KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION MOVES SWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS IS YIELDING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 40 KT ACROSS NE KS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING A STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILE BELOW 700 MB RESULTING IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PRESENT ACROSS NRN OK...SRN KS AND CNTRL MO. THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE LINE...MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 38729173 37909506 37669521 36739486 36579399 36939204 37529009 38309020 38789084 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 18:14:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 13:14:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408241815.i7OIFJL18514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241813 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IL...WRN IND...SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241813Z - 242015Z HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL AND NWRN IND. IN ADDITION...A LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN MO. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR SRN MO AND SW IL. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SRN MO AND THE SRN HALF OF IL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...FUELING A LINEAR MCS ACROSS SRN MO. A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED FROM NE IL EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN MO. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN NERN IL SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR WHICH EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN MO. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN IL AND SERN MO. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS THREAT BEING ENHANCED AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 40 KT PUNCHES EWD OUT OF NERN MO INTO CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 36619125 36889307 37629304 38319120 39378970 40488877 41658862 42048839 42108745 41628669 40558666 38788762 37578912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 22:28:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 17:28:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408242229.i7OMT6L04246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242226 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN KS INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242226Z - 250100Z PORTIONS OF N CNTRL AND NE KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NE KS...SERN NEB AND NRN MO...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS NWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST E OF GREAT BEND. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 90F. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF N CNTRL KS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO ENHANCED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE WEAK LOW IN CNTRL KS WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED TO SELY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NERN KS...SE NEB AND NRN MO AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 37939595 38439698 38369851 38729902 39409847 40309633 40349468 39559426 38669480 38189521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 03:43:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 22:43:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250343.i7P3hpL10342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250341 NEZ000-250545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250341Z - 250545Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD CNTRL NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR AINSWORTH IN N CNTRL NEB SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL IN SW NEB IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 30 KT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE NEW STORMS. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY INTERCEPTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH MAY ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40410172 41570024 42869916 41519783 40419964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 04:49:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 23:49:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250449.i7P4naL05192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250447 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 250447Z - 250645Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS...SE NEB AND NRN MO WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING NEWD WITH TIME. THIS EVENING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS NWWD INTO CNTRL KS. A SWLY 30-40 KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS...NRN MO AND SERN NEB. THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY N OF INTERSTATE 70. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THIS LINE IS LOWER. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWD DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SETTLE SWD. STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND LIKELY NOT REALIZING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR BELOW 1 KM. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR FROM 1 TO 6 KM IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR STORM TO TAKE ON OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38799271 38759471 38729701 39669728 40459703 40559489 40509265 39709255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 06:46:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 01:46:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250646.i7P6kXL12488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250644 IAZ000-NEZ000-250815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250644Z - 250815Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH ATTM...THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW. A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 35 W EAR EWD AT 30-35 KT THROUGH S CENTRAL NEB. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED WWD INTO NERN CO. MECHANISM FOR LIFT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR...THOUGH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT SPREADING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE MAIN LIFT FOR CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE ROOTED AROUND 800 MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN AROUND 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. STORMS ARE LIKELY NOT REALIZING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE CAP APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FURTHER EAST FROM NRN MO NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND UNLESS COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ..IMY.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40259897 40849975 41489979 42159838 42369635 40919668 40299821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 07:17:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 02:17:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250718.i7P7INL23724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250714 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 250714Z - 250745Z WW 780 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN NERN MO...NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NRN KS EWD INTO CENTRAL MO. VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA INDICATED THAT A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SW...AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM UPDRAFT BASES ARE NEAR 850 MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION. MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND THE DEEP SWLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED BOWING STRUCTURES...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SINCE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...NO ADDITIONAL WW ARE ANTICIPATED. ..IMY.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39329259 39669481 40299519 40579503 40669338 40509230  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 00:47:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 19:47:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270048.i7R0m7L03644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270045 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN/SWRN WI SWWD INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788... VALID 270045Z - 270215Z IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N OF LSE SWWD TO E-CNTRL NEB /NEAR OMA/ AND THEN SWD INTO NERN KS. AN ADDITIONAL MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARY IS ALSO PRESENT FROM NW OF DSM EWD INTO E-CNTRL IA N OF DVN. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL IA ALONG/JUST E OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT. DOMINANT STORM REMAINS LARGE SUPERCELL OVER TAYLOR COUNTY IA WHILE OTHER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED N/NW OF DSM. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENENCE OF THESE SUPERCELLS /PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45KTS. MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED WINDS INVOF AFOREMENTIONED W-E BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2/ ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL IA...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN: 1) AVOID DISRUPTIVE INTERACTIONS WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS AND/OR 2) INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG SECONDARY BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 43929270 43908867 39939399 39969779 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 02:14:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 21:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270216.i7R2GtL04903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270213 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-270315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / CNTRL AND ERN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788... VALID 270213Z - 270315Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE EXPIRING TORNADO WATCH 788. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED FROM MORE DISCRETE ELEMENTS INTO CLUSTERS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF EXPANDING/MERGING COLD POOLS. STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED OUTFLOW DOMINANCE OF ONGOING STORMS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING OBSERVED ON THE DVN VWP...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRENGTHENING CAP AND INCREASED COLD POOL PRODUCTION WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40119557 43899115 43878761 40039227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 04:55:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 23:55:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270456.i7R4u1L32625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270453 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-270630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270453Z - 270630Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES HAS EVOLVED FROM CNTRL WI SWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN MO. WHILE MAJORITY OF MCS WILL REMAIN IN WW 789 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOWING SEGMENT OVER JACKSON COUNTY IA/JO DAVIESS COUNTY IL WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WITHIN THE HOUR AND APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY AROUND 0630Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS NRN IL REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF PLAN VIEW RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING CAP ACROSS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUS...PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOW GIVEN THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOMMODATE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42148903 42668838 42718763 42058706 41338738 40778775 40978891 41398995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 06:41:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 01:41:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270642.i7R6gAL02610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270639 MIZ000-270745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270639Z - 270745Z NRN UPPER MI N OF WW 790 IS BEING MONITORED. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AS COMPARED TO POINTS FURTHER SW...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MI LAKESHORE INVOF MKG ATTM -- AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER STILL W OF THE LAKE. WITH LATEST GRR /GRAND RAPIDS MI/ VWP INDICATING ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY 30 TO 40 KT FLOW FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH MID-LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY EXTEND N OF WW 790 INTO NRN LOWER MI. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45768484 45468373 44538329 43848374 43688455 44158667 45418603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 06:51:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 01:51:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270652.i7R6qAL05636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270649 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-270745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO / SRN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789... VALID 270649Z - 270745Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STRONGER / BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN LINE NOW MOVING INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 790. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW / PARTS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO. ALTHOUGH THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES ACROSS THIS REGION MAY OCCUR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL INVOF THE IA / MO BORDER. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40119419 40549428 41079156 42038964 43668833 43758723 40079161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 09:37:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 04:37:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270938.i7R9cdL30641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270936 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-271100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL / NWRN IN / SRN HALF OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 790... VALID 270936Z - 271100Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WITH NEW WW POSSIBLY REQUIRED INTO E CENTRAL AND SERN LOWER MI. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NRN LOWER MI SSWWD TO SRN LK MI...AND THEN SWWD TO NERN MO / SERN IA. ALTHOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI ATTM. WHILE ASOS-OBSERVED PEAK WINDS HAVE REMAINED AOB 40 KT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI...SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FURTHER S...ALONG WITH A GUST TO 49 KT OBSERVED AT MKG /MUSKEGON MI/ AROUND 09Z. GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT IT APPEARS THAT KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN LOWER MI IS SIMILAR TO THAT FURTHER W...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXPAND EWD REQUIRING NEW WW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40819079 40938928 42148742 43628628 44178532 43998291 43078239 41698354 41748444 41938551 40168780 40159156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 14:25:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 09:25:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271426.i7REQYL24630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271424 ILZ000-MOZ000-271600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO AND WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271424Z - 271600Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL MO AND WRN IL SHORTLY. TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL MO THIS MORNING WITH INTENSITY GRADUALLY INCREASING PER LATEST VIL COMPOSITE LOOP. THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATER TODAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED AND SHOULD POSE PRIMARILY A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THEREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39469344 39819003 38818944 37889281 37939441 39029444 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 17:12:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:12:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271713.i7RHD9L25861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271710 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-271945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MI...NWRN OH...NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271710Z - 271945Z SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF IND...NWRN OH...AND EXTREME SERN MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED... GREATER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT MOVING INTO LOWER MI LATER TODAY. BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...APPARENTLY LINKED TO TRAILING PORTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LWR MI AND ONTARIO...HAS PROMPTED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND AND NWRN OH LAST HOUR. EXPECT RELATIVELY WEAK CAP AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE PULSE OR MULTICELL UPDRAFTS MIGHT PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. AT THIS TIME A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 41978369 41428260 40188555 40598681 41358521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 17:41:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:41:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271742.i7RHg9L09609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271739 MIZ000-271945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271739Z - 271945Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SRN HALF OF LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS MEAGER AMIDST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS ROUGHLY NE-SW ORIENTED MDT CU ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT. MODIFIED 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...WITH MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG PER 17Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY ON FRINGE OF STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..GUYER.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 43638623 43808499 43858336 43938270 43168252 42308308 42068361 41938477 41908579 41948619 42548601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 18:09:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 13:09:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271809.i7RI9wL25085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271807 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 791... VALID 271807Z - 272000Z DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WW 791 CONTINUES BELOW SEVERE LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS REMAIN IN RATHER WARM AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THUS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL. STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MO AND ERN KS WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG. SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESE TO WNW ACROSS CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ONLY SLOW SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP OCCURRING NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NWRN MO...AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER KS...ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ABOUT 35-40KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER TODAY AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37749694 39339669 40629349 39959059 38848938 38378976 37849072 37459295 36729441 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 20:50:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 15:50:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408272051.i7RKplL16313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272049 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...793... VALID 272049Z - 272215Z EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND NWRN MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NRN MO INTO NERN KS...AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEST OF STL WWD AND NWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NWRN MO. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST FAVORABLE FOCUSED FORCING WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR FRONT AND OUTFLOW INTERSECTION TO THE NE OF MKC. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS BOTH WATCH AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS AND NRN/CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36889478 38469476 37879638 39389636 40869249 39399246 40148999 38549000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 21:11:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 16:11:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408272112.i7RLCUL27215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272110 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-272315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/FAR NE MO INTO NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272110Z - 272315Z AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FROM SCNTRL/SE IA...FAR NE MO...AND PERHAPS NW IL REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL. SYNOPTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO...WHILE AIRMASS ACROSS FAR NE MO/NW IL HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS. TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AS BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BASED ABOVE SURFACE OWING TO REMNANT COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BASED CINH. MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR /SUPPORTED BY 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. AIRMASS RECOVERY INTO NW IL WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING SWLY LLJ THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40669385 41119393 41649308 42149115 41978982 41478897 40688910 39839082 39869173 40009218 40289263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 21:55:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 16:55:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408272156.i7RLulL16719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272154 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272154Z - 272330Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM JUST E ICT SWWD TO W OF END TO NEAR LTS. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WHICH IS PRECEEDING STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....WELL MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALL SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB... 37419763 38049685 37779604 33759907 33619980 34320005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 01:33:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 20:33:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408280134.i7S1YKL31018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280131 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...793... VALID 280131Z - 280230Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST 02Z...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NRN MO INTO NERN KS ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIRMASS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS/ IS EXPECTED TO EXIST PAST 02Z GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF INSTABILITY AXIS. EWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT/ WHICH EXTENDS FROM N OR NE OF SZL TO S OF TBN. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS SAME AREA OWING TO: 1) SLOW FRONTAL MOTION...2) VERY MOIST INFLOW AIRMASS... AND 3) POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND/OR BACK-BUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 08/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39309650 40969244 38669246 37919483 37889638 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 03:08:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 22:08:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408280309.i7S39JL31850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280306 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794... VALID 280306Z - 280400Z ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND WW 794 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN COLD POOL PRODUCTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS SE OF ICT AND FROM SW OF END TO NEAR CSM. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING/COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS BEYOND 04Z...A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 08/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB... 34430004 35939892 37689716 38089653 38009552 34469845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:12:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:12:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291914.i7TJE5L25783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291911 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291911Z - 292115Z ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRH HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CU FIELD WITHIN CONFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH FROM FAR ECNTRL NM THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z AMA/RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEGLIGIBLE CINH IN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500-2000 J/KG/ ALREADY IN PLACE. GIVEN S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS OF 25-30 KTS...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY/FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER SUGGEST LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COMBINATION OF NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND NON-DESCRIPT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN ISOLD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 34910411 35520401 36980223 38430125 38710051 38189976 36380017 34290101 33870131 33910294 34410384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:45:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:45:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291948.i7TJmRL05552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291944 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291944Z - 292145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU FIELD CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INVOF SFC WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/ND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG IN AXIS ALONG/EAST OF DVL-JMS-ABR CORRIDOR. AIDED BY MODERATE W/NW WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-16C TO -18C/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48919925 48969825 48859584 48159513 45969489 44499496 43829584 43789799 43819883 45319891 47079887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:47:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:47:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291948.i7TJmSL05557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291946 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 291946Z - 292145Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SETS IN. LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:47:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291948.i7TJmoL05701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291944 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291944Z - 292145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU FIELD CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INVOF SFC WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/ND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG IN AXIS ALONG/EAST OF DVL-JMS-ABR CORRIDOR. AIDED BY MODERATE W/NW WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-16C TO -18C/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48919925 48969825 48859584 48159513 45969489 44499496 43829584 43789799 43819883 45319891 47079887  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:48:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291950.i7TJoKL06526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291946 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 291946Z - 292145Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SETS IN. LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:48:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291951.i7TJpjL06844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291946 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 291946Z - 292145Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SETS IN. LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 22:14:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:14:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408292216.i7TMG1L28635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292213 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-292345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY AND EXTREME NE PA INTO VT/NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 292213Z - 292345Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 795 WILL NOT NEED TO BE REPLACED. HOWEVER WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LOCALLY...NAMELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NY INTO VT/NH. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...AIRMASS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH BACKGROUND WIND PROFILES REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42007896 44647751 44617058 43997098 43087371 42517500 42047557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 22:34:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408292235.i7TMZjL02592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292233 NCZ000-SCZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 796... VALID 292233Z - 300030Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES CONTINUES NE OF CENTER OF GASTON AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL END FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION AS CENTER OF SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OVER ERN NC. AREAS NE OF WW 796 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW. MEANWHILE WW 796 SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE WITH PASSAGE OF CYCLONE CORE. AVAILABLE VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN QUADRANT OF GASTON. MOST FAVORED AREA BASED ON SFC MESOANALYSIS WILL BE INVOF AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THAT EXTENDS FROM TC CENTER NNEWD NEAR THE LINE LBT...POB...LHZ. ISALLOBARIC AXIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO PRONOUNCED/QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE...WHERE MAXIMA OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE EACH ARE INDICATED. ANY DISCRETE STORM INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN THEIR MESOCYCLONES AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER W. MLCAPE VARIES FROM ABOUT 400-1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF ERN NC NE OF CENTER...WITH AXIS ALSO LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO PRESSURE FALL/TROUGH LINE. BUOYANCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BECAUSE OF WEAK DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER SFC BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW LCL. MEANWHILE...AS CYCLONE CENTER APCHS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER AREA NE OF WW. THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS SHOULD YIELD TORNADO THREAT THERE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW PRESENT PROBABILITY WITHIN WW. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 22:38:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408292239.i7TMdtL04081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292236 COR NCZ000-SCZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796... VALID 292236Z - 300030Z CORRECTED FOR WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES CONTINUES NE OF CENTER OF GASTON AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL END FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION AS CENTER OF SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OVER ERN NC. AREAS NE OF WW 796 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW. MEANWHILE WW 796 SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE WITH PASSAGE OF CYCLONE CORE. AVAILABLE VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN QUADRANT OF GASTON. MOST FAVORED AREA BASED ON SFC MESOANALYSIS WILL BE INVOF AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THAT EXTENDS FROM TC CENTER NNEWD NEAR THE LINE LBT...POB...LHZ. ISALLOBARIC AXIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO PRONOUNCED/QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE...WHERE MAXIMA OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE EACH ARE INDICATED. ANY DISCRETE STORM INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN THEIR MESOCYCLONES AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER W. MLCAPE VARIES FROM ABOUT 400-1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF ERN NC NE OF CENTER...WITH AXIS ALSO LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO PRESSURE FALL/TROUGH LINE. BUOYANCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BECAUSE OF WEAK DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER SFC BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW LCL. MEANWHILE...AS CYCLONE CENTER APCHS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER AREA NE OF WW. THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS SHOULD YIELD TORNADO THREAT THERE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW PRESENT PROBABILITY WITHIN WW. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 01:14:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 20:14:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408300116.i7U1GFL22286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300113 NCZ000-SCZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796... VALID 300113Z - 300245Z MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC. HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUCH THAT WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE. PARTIAL SPIRAL BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM OFFSHORE ONSLOW COUNTY NWWD TOWARD JOHNSTON COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS AWAY FROM CIRCULATION CORE...THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION OF GASTON -- I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 100-250 J/KG BASED ON MHX RAOB AND VWP FROM RDU/MHX REGIONS. MAIN AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AND PRESSURE FALL AXIS NEAR POB...LHZ...60 E DAN LINE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS OR MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SPIRAL BAND MOVE THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD SERVE AS AXIS OF ANY REMAINING TORNADO PROBABILITIES. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS WEAKENING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT DECREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF GASTON. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 16:09:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 11:09:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408301612.i7UGCrL16095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301607 NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-301800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN VA...NERN NC...SRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301607Z - 301800Z CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER SRN VA IN ADVANCE OF TD GASTON. 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH CG LIGHTNING DEVELOPING OVER SRN VA TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TD GASTON...WITHIN BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA. STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DENSE CLOUDS ATTENDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM AKQ SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING A VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SUPERCELLS. CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NC...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RNK... 35567681 36347696 36727767 36727826 37187862 37847835 38437769 38417639 37557594 36557576 35817551 35367630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 19:04:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 14:04:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408301906.i7UJ64L19905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301903 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301903Z - 302100Z ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TX AND ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. AS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AMA AND FDR WSR-88D DATA...OUTFLOW FROM REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WWD THROUGH NW TX/TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR N TX. COMBINED WITH MODERATE HEATING/WEAK INHIBITION...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS IN NON-OVERTURNED AIRMASS OF PORTIONS OF NW TX/FAR ERN NM...WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY INVOF CAP ROCK REGION OF NW TX WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/...PULSE-TYPE SEVERE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE HAZARDS...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 36610498 36700330 36650199 35580192 34820118 34099967 33049951 32369989 31840035 32050203 32930411 34960497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 19:08:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 14:08:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408301909.i7UJ9eL22498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301906 VAZ000-NCZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN VA...NERN NC...SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 797... VALID 301906Z - 302100Z SEVERAL BANDS OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN VA AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TD GASTON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY NC...WITH WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE TIDEWATER REGION. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. VAD PROFILE FROM KAKQ CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SUPERCELLS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38187844 36817848 36387561 37817564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 22:43:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 17:43:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408302244.i7UMiTL19332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302240 VAZ000-NCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-310045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN VA...PORTIONS SERN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 797... VALID 302240Z - 310045Z REMNANTS OF TC GASTON -- CENTERED OVER SURREY COUNTY VA AS OF 22Z -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF WW NNW THROUGH ESE OF CIRCULATION CENTER -- COMPRISING SECTOR WITH MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR -- SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MD. HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUCH THAT WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD FROM LOW ACROSS SRN TIP DELMARVA PENINSULA. AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AHEAD OF LOW CENTER...THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE LOSING BAROCLINICITY BECAUSE OF 1. ABUNDANT PRECIP ON BOTH SIDES AND 2. LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. PRESSURE FALL AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS ACCOMACK COUNTY VA AND AS SUCH DENOTES MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF LOW DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER A SMALL SECTOR OF NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION OF GASTON. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS ESTIMATED N OF SFC TROUGH...BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NEWD SHIFT OF VWP TRENDS FROM AKQ. MAIN AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS ALONG AND N OF SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AND INVOF PRESSURE FALL AXIS...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS/MINI-SUPERCELLS MOVE THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR. AREA BETWEEN TROUGH AND ISALLOBARIC AXIS SHOULD SERVE AS MAX OF ANY REMAINING TORNADO PROBABILITIES. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS WEAKENING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT DECREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF CYCLONE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PHI... 36367558 36757846 38237848 37807562 38057721 38277676 38457569 38477506 38187507 37877537 37687558 37807564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 19:53:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 14:53:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408311954.i7VJsuL32020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311951 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-312145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311951Z - 312145Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS OF ECENTRAL AZ...CENTRAL/WCENTRAL NM AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS OF SCENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO E-W ORIENTED LINES AS THEY MOVE SWD OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER 20 KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -11 TO -12 DEG C AT 500 MB. THESE THERMODYNAMICS ABOVE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR LINEAR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS...THE OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR THREAT. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31380970 33021098 34491032 34710738 33860502 32060449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 01:21:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 20:21:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010120.i711KcD15471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010119 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-010215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 676... VALID 010119Z - 010215Z ...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS CONCENTRATED FROM SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND EXTREME SRN MN WITH SWD PROPAGATING SUPERCELLS... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AS VEERED LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN WI THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FUTURE ELEVATED CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING SUPERCELL ACTIVITY FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INTO THIS STRENGTHENING LLJ BEFORE SLOWLY DECOUPLING BY 03-04Z TIME RANGE. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN...NWRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43599747 44849328 43529182 43189613 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 03:29:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 22:29:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010328.i713SUD15597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010327 NEZ000-SDZ000-010500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010327Z - 010500Z ...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS SCNTRL SD/NCNTRL NEB AHEAD OF AN APPARENT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AHEAD OF CONVECTION FORCING A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO RETURN WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH A SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT NOW OBSERVED ACROSS SRN SD...IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE INCREASING ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT SPREADS EWD WITH SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43550087 43709848 43409697 42169701 42210074 42790165 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 04:43:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 23:43:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010442.i714ggD02391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010442 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010441 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677... VALID 010441Z - 010545Z PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO AID CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN/WRN WI. TWO MAIN CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THIS ZONE...NOTABLY OVER NWRN WI AND FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INTO WRN WI. NWRN IA THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD OUT OF THE WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WARM ADVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SERN MN/WRN WI CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. HOWEVER THIS TOO SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42719633 45149300 44508959 43289162 42099469 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 07:00:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 02:00:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010700.i71705D07386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010659 IAZ000-MOZ000-010830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010659Z - 010830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES SWD. AS OF 0645Z...DSM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT-SEGMENT BOWING STRUCTURE FROM BOONE COUNTY WWD ACROSS GREENE AND CARROLL COUNTY MOVING SWD AT 30-35KT. BASE VELOCITY DATA SHOW A LOCAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INBOUND VELOCITIES OVER BOONE COUNTY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING/PROPAGATING SWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND IS LIKELY BEING FED FROM THE SW BY SWLY 25-35KT LLJ FROM RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /I.E. -150 TO -250 J/KG/...AND ONLY MODEST SYSTEM SPEED WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 42019578 42549294 41019236 40579521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 08:44:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 03:44:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408010844.i718i1D03683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010843 NDZ000-MTZ000-011015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT INTO WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010843Z - 011015Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LEADING EDGE OF FAST-MOVING MCS EXTENDED FROM WRN DANIELS COUNTY SWD ACROSS ERN VALLEY AND INTO NRN GARFIELD COUNTY AS OF 0830Z...WITH A RECENT WIND GUST TO 72 MPH REPORTED AT GGW. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LIMITED /I.E. MUCAPES AOB 250 J/KG/ IT APPEARS THAT FAST SYSTEM SPEED /EWD MOVEMENT AT 40-45KTS/ COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF REAR INFLOW JET /OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 2KM PER GGW VWP/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER WRN ND IS NEARLY STABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 50 J/KG OR LESS. THUS...MCS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..MEAD.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 49000622 49000361 46870361 46880626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 10:58:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 05:58:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011057.i71AveD15652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011056 MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011056Z - 011230Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MN SWWD INTO THE WRN IA /MAINLY W OF I-35/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORKS INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED ASCENT ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL ALONG WLY 20-30KT LLJ IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL/ERN SD ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE CAP /WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE 850-700MB/ WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR THOUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 43759614 43779233 40689229 40529562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 17:13:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 12:13:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011712.i71HCeD18798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011711 IAZ000-011815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 011711Z - 011815Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN IA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST/NORTH OF THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SUX AND DSM... ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES E-W ACROSS IA AND THEN NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD. A 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE WSW IS BEING LIFTED OVER THE BOUNDARY...FUELING THE STORMS WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE 1/2 TO 1 INCH SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE WNW AT 25 KT...STRONG BACKWARD PROPAGATION WILL RESULT IN THE STORMS TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ESEWD. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41749507 42029586 42209583 42429577 42809576 43039557 43029501 42859464 42629424 42219420 41889450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 18:36:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 13:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011835.i71IZKD09399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011834 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-012130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW UT/SE ID/EXTREME WRN WY CONCERNING...SVR TSTM POTENTIAL/DRY LIGHTNING VALID 011834Z - 012130Z ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE SE OF BYI...ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND OTHER SUBTLE WAVES MAY BE PRESENT WITHIN THIS STRONG / 35-40 KT / MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...INDIVIDUAL TSTM UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS NW UT/SE ID. RECENT MESOWEST WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN AROUND 60-70 MPH NEAR DUGWAY/SALT FLATS. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEGREES. THIS COMBINATION OF LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME STRONG/SVR WINDS GUSTS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONGLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO NEARLY 500 MB WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES...SO SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO RAIN. ..TAYLOR.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN... 39801164 40201375 41961405 43251312 43831127 43481078 41951030 41161057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 18:50:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 13:50:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011849.i71InWD13562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011848 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-012045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011848Z - 012045Z TORNADO WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN SD...SWRN MN ...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM DSM TO SOUTH OF SUX...AND THEN NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR PIR. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SWD AND EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO NRN MN. THE AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...AND WILL CONTINUE DESTABILIZING WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE ABR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE 12 RUN. THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD CONTINUE ERODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 45 KT...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO SUPERCELLS. HAIL 3 INCHES OR LARGER WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ..IMY.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR... 43829844 45739847 45789742 45719448 44829424 43349404 41659424 42349817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 19:19:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 14:19:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408011919.i71JJ1D21833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011917 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-012015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA/NWRN MO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SERN NEB/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011917Z - 012015Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF SWRN IA/NWRN MO...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN NEB AND NERN KS FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER NWRN MO CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM COU TO MKC TO OMA. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. DUE TO STRONG TURNING OF THE WINDS FROM SLY TO NWLY IN THE LOWER 5 KM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CURRENT ANALYSIS AND 18Z OMA SOUNDING SHOW THE AIR MASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...25 KNOT SWLY WINDS LIFTING NEWD OVER THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO BE LIFTED TO THE LFC. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. HAIL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER WOULD BE MAIN THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41689598 41989494 41819361 39629296 39029269 38959497 38809529 38939517 41049623 41239687 41109791 40379814 38749713 38509583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 20:43:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 15:43:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408012042.i71KgND13713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012041 WIZ000-MNZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/ECNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012041Z - 012245Z ...MONITORING NRN WI/ECNTRL MN FOR POSSIBLE WW... TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRAINERD MN TO PHILLIPS WI. DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG. THE STORM DEVELOPING SO QUICKLY OVER SAWYER CO WI SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG/SVR TSTMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45819443 46329444 46519181 46088965 45418877 45188897 45118936 45429143 45559308 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 21:41:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 16:41:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408012140.i71LeOD30365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012139 NDZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012139Z - 012245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 700MB ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MOST RECENT VIS IMAGERY WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD FROM NWRN SD INTO NWRN ND WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF HEATING. SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN ND AND WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD WITHIN SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE THE STORM MODE BEFORE CLUSTERING AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46050335 48310281 48089905 46149890 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 23:27:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 18:27:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408012331.i71NVOD29179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012325 WIZ000-020030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 679... VALID 012325Z - 020030Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NERN PORTIONS OF WI BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED... ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS SHIFTED INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW AND IS NOW SPREADING INTO NERN WI...JUST EAST OF WW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE TOWARD GREEN BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT RATHER ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF MN LATE THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 08/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46249035 45348801 44458864 45549094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 00:23:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 19:23:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020023.i720N3D10236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020022 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-020115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 678...681... VALID 020022Z - 020115Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NERN SD LATER THIS EVENING. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REPLACED TO REFLECT ONGOING SCENARIO.. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL ND/NCNTRL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND SPREAD SEWD TOWARD NWRN PORTIONS OF WW LATER THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION PROFILES ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THIS ACTIVITY SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SUPERCELLS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REPLACED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EPISODE. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46040038 45849741 45279562 44189615 44349857 44890111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 01:12:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 20:12:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020111.i721BYD23735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020110 NDZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 680... VALID 020110Z - 020215Z SFC FRONT APPEARS TO BE SURGING SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS PER INCREASING NELY FLOW AND RISING PRESSURES FROM NERN MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND NWRN ND. THIS SURGE SHOULD FORCE A ZONE OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO CENTRAL ND WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE NEAR BIS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS NRN ND AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM BIS FAVORS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46440161 48810215 48969867 46829820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 03:02:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 22:02:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020301.i7231mD22948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020300 SDZ000-020400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 682... VALID 020300Z - 020400Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM PRIOR TO 04Z... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE THEIR SEWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 40 KT ACROSS SULLY AND POTTER COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINING DISCRETE STRUCTURES...WITH TIME STORM MERGERS AND CLUSTERING MAY RESULT IN A SEWD PROPAGATING MCS. IF AN MCS EVOLVES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY YET DEVELOP ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST LEADING STORMS MAY EXIT SRN PORTIONS OF WW AROUND 0430Z. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... 45939988 44569773 43739894 44420033 45400074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 04:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 23:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020430.i724USD15583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020429 SDZ000-NEZ000-020530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 682...683... VALID 020429Z - 020530Z ...MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS SERN SD. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY... A SLOW MATURATION FROM ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INTO MULTIPLE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL SOON EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE FORWARD SPEED AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 45189840 43879659 42929667 42679853 44420032 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 05:55:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 00:55:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020554.i725ssD06410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020553 MNZ000-NDZ000-020730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020553Z - 020730Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0530Z...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WERE LOCATED FROM PIERCE/BENSON COUNTIES OVER N-CNTRL ND SEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...AHEAD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF A WARM OR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ND EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN /NEAR BRD/. WHILE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 700MB...OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL WITH EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY CAN MOVE OR DEVELOP SWD TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD INCREASE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO UNFOLD. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 49019852 48859418 46089416 46099845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 08:03:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 03:03:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020803.i7283FD10822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020802 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683...684... VALID 020802Z - 020900Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. SEVERE...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO FAR NWRN IA. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /TO OVER 250 J/KG/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE MCS DEMISE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG AND E OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY /STRETCHED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY/ WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCE BY 35-45KT WSWLY LLJ OBSERVED ON THE OMAHA VWP AND FAIRBURY PROFILER. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41739857 42879909 42919810 43279729 43599687 44009620 44229557 42189483 42169637 41749626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 09:58:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 04:58:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408020957.i729vMD14096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020956 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020956Z - 021130Z STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL IA SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A ZONE WHERE PARCELS ARE BEING LIFTED SUFFICIENTLY TO THE LFC OVER STATIONARY OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 35-45KT WSWLY LLJ JET AXIS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS REGIME INDICATE A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL CAP WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM OF THIS BUOYANCY LAYER REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OR SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA AND NRN MO WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN KS. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL POTENTIAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42899450 43289266 41869102 40219222 38649438 38689617 38919668 41559530 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 10:19:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 05:19:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021018.i72AIrD20257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021017 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-021145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND SEWD INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 021017Z - 021145Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS OF 1005Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HP SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO HYBRID CURRENTLY OVER MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES INTO CNTRL MN MOVING SEWD AT 30-40KTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER CLAY COUNTY MN AND BARNES COUNTY ND. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LEADING STORM COMPLEX IS MOVING ALONG COOL SIDE OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO W-CNTRL WI /N OF EAU/...WHILE UPSTREAM STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE RESIDUAL COLD POOL. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CO-LOCATION OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT MORRISON/TODD COUNTY COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD...SO LONG AS IT CAN CONTINUE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE /I.E. CIN VALUES OF -200 TO -300 J/KG/. MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER NWRN MN/ERN ND. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47109841 47109545 45099260 45109549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 11:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 06:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021143.i72Bh8D13868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021141 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-021245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND INTO CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685... VALID 021141Z - 021245Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BOW ECHO WITH WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TRACK SEWD AT 35-40KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE IT/S ORGANIZED APPEARANCE...LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SAMPLING THE ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS. INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE INFLOW REGION SUGGESTS THAT COMPLEX MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER WHICH MAY BE EFFECTIVELY DILUTING THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. THOUGH A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...POTENTIAL MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN INFLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER CAN WARM/DEEPEN. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER W-CNTRL WI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORM OVER OTTER TAIL COUNTY AS IT MOVES SEWD. ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45089547 47099840 47159542 45099269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 13:36:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 08:36:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021335.i72DZi925554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021335 WIZ000-MNZ000-021530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021335Z - 021530Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A BOW ECHO TRACKS SEWD ACROSS WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX OVER NW MN WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD. STRONG PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN MCS WITH A COLD POOL MOVING SEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN WI. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN CNTRL WI THIS MORNING...THE LINE SHOULD BECOME SFC-BASED. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44998991 44048778 43428799 43048833 43348966 44219176 44549248 44839253 45359204 45489162 45349082 45079018 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 16:13:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 11:13:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021612.i72GCj903305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021611 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021611Z - 021815Z NEW CELLS MAY INITIATE ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CNTRL AND ERN IL. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ONCE STORM INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNTRL IL EWD TO INDIANAPOLIS. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO ECNTRL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF NEW STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MOVEMENT WOULD TAKE THEM EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN IL AND WRN IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN OVER TIME AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40688898 41718884 42208861 42438804 42388716 41918649 40938643 39808685 39368766 39478853 39558860 39988902 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 16:46:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 11:46:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021645.i72Gjh918860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021644 MIZ000-WIZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021644Z - 021845Z INITIATION OF NEW STORMS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING ACROSS NRN WI. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN WI EXTENDING NEWD INTO UPPER MI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING STORMS INITIATE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 55 KT IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN WI AND UPPER MI TO ABOUT 35 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONSIDERING THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE AND FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS...THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46038489 45268648 44828831 44968970 45429003 45898988 46428887 46728672 46728529 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 17:33:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 12:33:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021732.i72HWa909664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021731 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/FAR NE IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021731Z - 021930Z A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL WI SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI BY 21Z. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS LOWER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CENTER OF INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INSTABILITY WILL HELP SUSTAIN AN MCS AND COLD POOL MOVING SEWD THROUGH WI. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS LAKE MI AND REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 55 KT MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER WRN LOWER MI BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LINE TO REMAIN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41618582 42008677 42598740 43148760 44718671 45418526 44918360 44048280 42038407 41398501 41338507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 18:33:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 13:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021832.i72IWe902782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021831 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-022100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/SRN ID/WRN WY/NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021831Z - 022100Z ...STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SPEED MAX OVER CNTRL/ERN NV PUSHING NWD TOWARD NRN UT. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...IT WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. RECENT MESOWEST WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS WHITE PINE CO IN ERN NV HAVE REMAINED BELOW SVR LIMITS SO FAR...BUT STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN. MODIFYING THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SOME INHIBITION...BUT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW INITIATION. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35 KT AND FORECAST TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-55 DEGREES. GIVEN WIND GUST POTENTIAL...DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY INCLUDE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK TO PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MAINLY ACROSS NRN UT/NRN NV. ..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN... 39061182 38391502 40561618 42901614 43591307 43740950 42660784 40330940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 19:12:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 14:12:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021911.i72JBo920369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021910 IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-022145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021910Z - 022145Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL ORE AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN 1-2 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN CA. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF ORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ORE WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM LMT TO RDM. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR... 42182048 43602150 45172090 45851925 46531708 45871600 43471614 42251757 42091872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 19:27:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 14:27:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408021926.i72JQA926553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021924 MTZ000-022130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021924Z - 022130Z CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL ACROSS SE AND CNTRL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT BACKED AGAINST THE MTNS EXTENDING NWWD FROM NEAR BILLINGS TO SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS MT. SFC HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS. STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 35 KT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH-BASED STORMS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 DEGREES. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47831162 47260895 46780707 46150604 45610656 45610800 46461154 47311285 47601251 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 20:17:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 15:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022017.i72KH4919623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022012 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-022215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022012Z - 022215Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS SRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN SD WITH A SFC LOW IN SRN SD. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SE MN. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONSIDERING THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNT OF CAPPING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM OMA EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN SD WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VEERING FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SFC-BASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 43669296 43499392 43689764 44049886 44479884 44879825 44859587 44709389 44169283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:25:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:25:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022125.i72LPD918941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022123 NEZ000-SDZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022123Z - 022200Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TOWERING CU OVER KEYA PAHA COUNTY NEB OR 15 NNE ANW. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED E-W ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-4000 J/KG/. THE TOWERING CU SUGGESTS THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER ERN WY ATTM. AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43660149 43700022 43619746 43249685 42339663 41909742 42010033 42320155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:34:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:34:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022133.i72LXi923090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022132 MIZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687... VALID 022132Z - 022300Z ...GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS LOWER PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE HOURS... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TSTMS ACROSS LOWER MI. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF A CAD/GRR LINE...AND ARE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING INTO THIS AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SVR GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM MI SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 20 KT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH AGREES WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM GRR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WIND DAMAGE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACROSS UPPER MI...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS...THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SO THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41948337 42048535 42808560 44088557 44918466 45228391 45208277 44768260 43708243 42878267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:42:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:42:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022141.i72LfV926454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022123 NEZ000-SDZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022123Z - 022200Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TOWERING CU OVER KEYA PAHA COUNTY NEB OR 15 NNE ANW. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED E-W ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-4000 J/KG/. THE TOWERING CU SUGGESTS THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER ERN WY ATTM. AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43660149 43700022 43619746 43249685 42339663 41909742 42010033 42320155  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 21:48:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 16:48:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022147.i72LlT929328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022132 MIZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687... VALID 022132Z - 022300Z ...GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS LOWER PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE HOURS... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TSTMS ACROSS LOWER MI. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF A CAD/GRR LINE...AND ARE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. STORMS MOVING INTO THIS AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SVR GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM MI SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 20 KT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH AGREES WITH LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM GRR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WIND DAMAGE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACROSS UPPER MI...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS...THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SO THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41948337 42048535 42808560 44088557 44918466 45228391 45208277 44768260 43708243 42878267  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 22:29:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 17:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408022228.i72MSO919046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022227 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-022330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT AND PORTIONS OF SERN ID/SWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... VALID 022227Z - 022330Z STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NRN UT INTO PORTIONS OF SERN ID AND SWRN WY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 30 NNW OGD TO 40 NW PUC...AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KT. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND NEAR 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLS...WITH 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FAVORING A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 42121319 42151085 39701029 39681253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 00:06:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 19:06:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030005.i7305c918607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030004 IDZ000-ORZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OREGON/WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688... VALID 030004Z - 030200Z ...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PORTION OF WW 688... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR MEDFORD...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL ORE/NRN CA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE NEW TSTMS WHICH WOULD THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 688. THE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN/CNTRL OREGON REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. WITH THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR... 42062016 42012269 43662355 44562288 45042177 45282054 45201961 44961832 44401719 43651652 42761719 42181911 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 00:22:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 19:22:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030021.i730LF923531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030020 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-030045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN UT/EXTREME SERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... VALID 030020Z - 030045Z WW 689 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. AIR MASS ACROSS WW 689 HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FAR ERN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THIS WATCH. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC... 39681155 41021128 42171182 42161087 39681026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 00:49:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 19:49:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030048.i730ml931941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030047 NEZ000-SDZ000-030145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN SD INTO NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...692... VALID 030047Z - 030145Z ...STORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN AN AREA OF CHAMBERLAIN TO NEAR HON AND MHE... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID CU/MID-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER THIS AREA...WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A STRONG STORM OVER ERN BRULE/NRN AURORA COUNTIES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS SD AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT... SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...WW 691 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEB...SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED AS EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER SD. STRENGTHENING CAP OVER NEB AS INDICATED BY 00Z OAX RAOB SUGGESTS SWD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44239732 42939699 42379701 41479701 41490022 42760018 43000206 43370269 44340212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 02:09:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 21:09:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030208.i7328Z924574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030207 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/EXTREME NERN WY/NWRN SD/EXTREME SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030207Z - 030300Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN MT/EXTREME NERN WY INTO NWRN SD AND EXTREME SWRN ND BY 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM PETROLEUM COUNTY SEWD TO BIG HORN COUNTY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE EWD AS THIS ACTIVITY TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE. INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS TOWARD NWRN SD/SWRN ND. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO DIAGNOSE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45070675 46610652 46550388 46100244 44380262 44270464 44670601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 06:38:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 01:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030637.i736bM908324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030636 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030636 OHZ000-030900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND ADJACENT OH SHORELINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030636Z - 030900Z LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN-MOST LE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD TO SEWD OVER LE. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWD ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OH SHORELINE AS FAR W AS ERN OTTAWA COUNTY...AND MAY APCH CLE AREA AROUND 9-10Z TIME FRAME. A FEW GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE ATTM FOR WW. ELEVATED MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG -- AIDED BY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE SFC...SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS LE TOWARD PORTIONS OH SHORELINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND DIABATICALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT STILL WITH SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. BECAUSE OF GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 10-20 KT BETWEEN TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND 500 MB...PER REGIONAL VWP DATA AND RUC PROGS... LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH RESPECT TO FCST INFLOW IN 850-925 MB LAYER SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF LINE IS MOST FAVORED FOR SWD PROPAGATION AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE... 41718322 41498295 41308251 41138205 41158165 41238129 41568094 41828079 41998087 42138112 42228144 42008218 41778295 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 07:04:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 02:04:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030703.i7373x915759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030702 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030702Z - 030900Z TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY...WNW-ESE ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM NWRN SD SEWD TO BETWEEN PHP-PIR...THEN ESEWD TO VICINITY FSD AND DSM. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THIS FRONT. VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE OVER SERN-MOST SD AND NWRN IA...INVOF NOSE OF 30-35 KT LLJ...AND WHERE 850 MB FLOW TURNS SHARPLY FROM SWWD TO SEWD AS IN FSD VWP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT AND BECOMES DIFLUENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/SD BORDER REGION...BASED ON 850 MB STREAMLINES FROM VWP/PROFILER PLOTS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE BUOYANT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES PEAKING AROUND 4000 J/KG NEAR IA/SD BORDER AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL SD AND E-CENTRAL IA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 41519267 42189534 42959828 43459892 43859936 44209947 44479909 44599852 44599820 44559774 44459719 44269635 43769468 43069331 42429211 41769174 41539213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 07:32:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 02:32:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030731.i737Vs924134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030730 SDZ000-030930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND W-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030730Z - 030930Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING EWD OVER NWRN SD AS OF 715Z IS FCST TO TURN MORE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SD...MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND FROM ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF PRIMARY BOW. MAIN CORRIDOR OF CONCERN ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN BUTTE COUNTY ACROSS SRN PERKINS...NERN MEADE...ZIEBACH...NRN HAAKON AND STANLEY COUNTIES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM THIS TSTM CLUSTER ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD NEAR PIR...THEN TO NEAR FSD. BOTH FORWARD AND REAR PROPAGATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH NET SEWD TURNING OF TRACK EXPECTED -- GENERALLY ALONG FRONT. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT FROM 2000 J/KG OVER NWRN SD TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL SD. WRN BRANCH OF LLJ WILL AID WITH LIFT -- GIVEN 20-25 KT 850 MB SELYS AND 45-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AT THAT LEVEL INDICATED BY VWP INTERPOLATIONS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43830039 43950152 44260235 44810356 44990342 45180329 45380313 45360284 45310253 45180191 45030139 44870082 44710045 44469948 44269955 43979973 43920004 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 09:38:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 04:38:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408030937.i739bJ930499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030935 NCZ000-031430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NC -- MHX-HAT AREA INCLUDING SRN OUTER BANKS AND CAPE LOOKOUT CONCERNING...TC TORNADO POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 030935Z - 031430Z POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER WATER -- BUT MAY ALSO SPREAD NEWD FROM CAPE FEAR AREA ACROSS OCRACOKE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS INNER BANDS OF HURRICANE ALEX CROSS AREA. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT AND VERY SMALL LAND AREA INVOLVED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TIME SERIES OF VWP FROM ILM/MHX SHOWS INCREASE IN 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AS SFC FLOW BACKS AND WINDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT BOUNDARY LAYER. GREAT MAJORITY OF ZONE WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NWRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME SHOULD SPREAD ONTO SRN OUTER BANKS THROUGH 10-11Z AND NEWD THEREAFTER. MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE WITHIN INNER BANDS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LIFT. RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED/ISOLATED/DISTINCT CELLS WILL NOT BE VERY COMMON IN DENSE PRECIP FIELD OF INNER BAND REGION...HOWEVER ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM WITHIN THESE BANDS MAY ROTATE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...MOVING NWWD THEN WWD BEFORE DISSIPATING N OF EYE. MEANWHILE...CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH TROPICAL WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES FROM HEAVIER CORES...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRAIN ALONG AXES OF SPIRAL BANDS. REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON ALEX. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX... 34687687 34937654 35187598 35297560 35297550 35247551 35207555 35097578 34867610 34567649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 10:06:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 05:06:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031006.i73A6B906143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031004 SDZ000-031200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN AND CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 031004Z - 031200Z TSTM CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO OVER WRN SD HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO PRONOUNCED SMALL MCS...STILL WITH SEVERE BOW ECHO PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR COOLED FOR MOST OF PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER WW...ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS STANLEY/HUGHES/SULLY COUNTIES -- INCLUDING POSSIBLE DIRECT HIT OF BOW ON PIR AREA. COMPLEX THEN SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS LYMAN/BUFFALO/HYDE COUNTIES WITH DAMAGING GUSTS. INTERPOLATED VWP PLOTS AT 850 MB...AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL SD...SUGGEST THAT 20-30 KT SELY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER...YIELDING 50-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN ENVIRONMENT OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. THEREFORE EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER WW AREA...WITH PROBABILITIES HIGHEST OVER AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WW THAT WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS SERN SD...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43439911 44030188 44170204 44480204 44900169 45160095 44769914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 12:23:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 07:23:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031222.i73CMZ916198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031221 SDZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-031315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN SD...EXTREME SWRN MN...EXTREME NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... VALID 031221Z - 031315Z SEVERE WIND PRODUCING MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN SRN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...MAINTAINING THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS. SEVERAL DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS WW 693 DOMAIN INCLUDING MEASURED GUST OF 52 KT AT PIR WITHIN PAST HOUR. SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN APPARENT IN REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES DURING PAST HALF HOUR...HOWEVER FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NECESSARY SE OF WW 693. SHORT-TERM PROGS INDICATE ELY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS SERN SD...20-25 KT SPEEDS CONTINUING WITHIN FIRST KM AGL. THIS YIELDS 50-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PEAK MUCAPES 3000-3500 J/KG AND SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. AXIS OF MAX BUOYANCY EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS FSD AREA AND MN/IA/SD BORDER JUNCTION...THEN ONWARD INTO NWRN IA. THIS GENERAL CONFIGURATION OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE PERIOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING AND LOSS OF LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC -- AROUND 14-16Z -- IT MAY MOVE WELL INTO IA. IN SHORT TERM...DAMAGE THREAT WILL IMPINGE UPON PORTIONS BUFFALO/HAND/ JERAULD/AURORA/SANBORN/BEADLE COUNTIES. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43459914 43740046 45020030 44759905 43429912 44729901 44479752 44249648 43989610 43619587 43169612 42889641 43009701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 15:35:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 10:35:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031534.i73FYT903965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031534 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031533 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VT / NRN NH / PARTS OF WRN ME... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031533Z - 031700Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE ISOLATED STRONG / LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR. AREA IS BEING MONITORED...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST RADAR SHOWS WEAK / CONVECTIVE VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS FAR NERN NY INTO NRN VT...WITH SMALL CLUSTER OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION CROSSING CHITTENDEN COUNTY VT ATTM. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S...WEAK LAPSE RATES INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MORNING RAOBS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...MODERATE / NEARLY UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS -- AS JET STREAK S OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE NERN CONUS. INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES / LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER / DAMAGING GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... 46277005 45686924 44466966 43907129 43607333 44387333 45007321 45007154 45297135 45287087 45927026 46147028 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 15:50:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 10:50:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031549.i73FnZ911084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031548 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-031715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / SRN MN / NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694... VALID 031548Z - 031715Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SERN SD...AND SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS FAR SRN MN / NRN AND CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 694. LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS...WHICH HAS PRODUCED STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS IN THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FEATURING LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND ELY WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE / BOW. THIS ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING STORM CLUSTER SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE AND LIKELY EXPAND / INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG WITH SOME HAIL...STRONG / GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44149706 44219578 44039294 43439110 42519108 41959357 42739602 43289738 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 16:24:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 11:24:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031623.i73GNn928293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031622 ILZ000-MOZ000-031745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL AND ERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695... VALID 031622Z - 031745Z WW 695 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS ERN MO/WRN IL. DECREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY NECESSITATE WATCH CANCELLATION PRIOR TO 19Z. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AT 1610Z...SMALL MCS CONTINUES 330/35KT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SYSTEM IS TRACKING AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUBSIDENCE ON AREA RUC SOUNDINGS AND WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES /+12C/ ARE INHIBITING UPDRAFT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. LEADING THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG A NE-SW AXIS FROM JERSEY COUNTY IL TO ERN WARREN COUNTY MO ARE ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM. CONTINUED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY NECESSITATE CANCELLATION OF WW PRIOR TO 19Z. ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS FOR REGENERATION OF MORE RIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37509120 40039240 40059071 37528954 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 18:17:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 13:17:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031817.i73IH4919196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031816 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN / NWRN INTO CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... VALID 031816Z - 031945Z BOWING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN / NWRN IA. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE. WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEAD AND PRONOUNCED REAR INFLOW NOTCH -- CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ALONG THE NWRN IA / SWRN MN BORDER. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS CLUSTER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WITH MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER AND FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH CLUSTER HAD BEEN MOVING EWD...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NEB CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD. AS THESE STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED AS THEY APPROACH / MERGE WITH ONGOING STORM CLUSTER...A SLOW TURN OF THE MCS TOWARD THE ESE -- ACROSS NRN IA -- SHOULD CONTINUE. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43959551 43909422 43689213 42289126 41499207 41619456 42019623 42439693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 19:55:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 14:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408031957.i73JvM902664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031953 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031953Z - 032200Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY/SWRN ND/NWRN SD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT 1930Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER WHILE TRACKING ENEWD. CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT SSEWD INTO THE BIG HORN MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS NWWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INTO N-CENTRAL MT. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ELY TO SELY WINDS EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...INSOLATION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CLOUDS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT. A FEW LONGER LIVED CELLS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT OVERALL THREAT MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 43900598 45760674 46750606 47040490 46900333 46290246 45800221 45180203 44650201 44130220 43820264 43470420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 20:01:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 15:01:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032001.i73K12904300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032000 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-032200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB / W CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032000Z - 032200Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NERN NEB / W CENTRAL IA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION SW OF WW 696. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT ACROSS E CENTRAL NEB / W CENTRAL IA...WITH TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND MEAN-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK THUS FAR -- AND LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE LOW-LEVEL CAP...CONTINUED HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFICATION OF ETA PFCS WOULD SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH CAP NEARLY ELIMINATED CONSIDERING THE LOW 90S OVER LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP...VEERING WIND PROFILES WHICH INCREASE WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH MAIN THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME MESOSCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH TIME -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR SIGNS OF WEAKENING CAP / MORE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41909851 42509664 42579510 41989425 41269424 41139644 41359864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 20:58:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 15:58:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032057.i73KvD931673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032055 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... VALID 032055Z - 032230Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW. NEW WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED COVERING PARTS OF IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS ORGANIZED / BOWING CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL / SERN MN AND ADJACENT NRN IA...INTO WW 697. MEANWHILE...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SWWD ACROSS NERN AND INTO CENTRAL IA ALONG OUTFLOW...WHERE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THIS REGION THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE S OF ONGOING BOWING CLUSTER. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR AND JUST N OF CENTRAL IA WARM FRONT. WITH TIME HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY ORGANIZE ALONG INTO A BOWING LINE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND PERHAPS NERN MO LATER THIS EVENING -- WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT TRENDING TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... 42709325 42719038 42298976 40459020 39809140 40509344 41399523 41819470 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 21:15:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 16:15:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032114.i73LEQ907947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032059 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032059Z - 032300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 2045Z...TOWERING CU HAVE INCREASED IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS. REGION IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W-CENTRAL TX...WITH PREVAILING SWLY 20-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 20-25 KT SFC-6KM SHEAR. ABSENCE OF FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT SUGGEST T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY ON BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F SUGGEST ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINTAINING THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37080132 39029872 38829786 38439733 37919728 37319735 36339810 35849889 35180017 35250218 36340258  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 21:54:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 16:54:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032153.i73LrK926464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032152 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-032245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032152Z - 032245Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN/SERN NEB. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WEST OF OMAHA...WITH EARLY SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN COLFAX COUNTY NEB. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39939473 40009866 41949751 41819456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 22:09:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:09:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032208.i73M8v900483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032207 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697... VALID 032207Z - 032300Z BOW ECHO EXTENDS FROM 25 W OF LSE TO 20 N ALO MOVING EWD AT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THE BOW HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HOUR AS STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTH OF IT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE RAPID MOTION STILL SUGGESTS A WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO..ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43939197 43979136 43819034 42889033 42679128 42719225 43309218 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 22:41:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:41:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032240.i73Mex912999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032239 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698... VALID 032239Z - 032345Z TORNADOES POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL IA THROUGH 00Z. A LINE OF SUPERCELLS WAS MOVING ESEWD AT 25 KT THROUGH CENTRAL IA. EXTREME INSTABILITY/MLCAPES NEAR 4500 J/KG/...1KM SRH FROM 100-150 M2/S2 AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY FAVOR TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT DO NOT BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN ALL OTHER STORMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT SYSTEM TO BEGIN ACCELERATING SEWD DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH THE WIND THREAT POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE DAMAGING AS IT MOVES INTO ERN IA. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42749263 42508974 40748983 40689389 41459396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:11:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:11:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032310.i73NAG923239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032308 KSZ000-040045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...0100Z OUTLOOK UPDATE VALID 032308Z - 040045Z SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF KS ON THE 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HIGHS BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37169691 37150013 38759883 39839728 39749570 39779518 38689559 38009615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:36:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:36:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032335.i73NZn932046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032334 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-040100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698... VALID 032334Z - 040100Z VERY DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO NWRN IL THROUGH 01Z. A STRONG MESOCYCLONE HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF ALO AND WAS AIDING IN THE THUNDERSTORM LINE TO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE BOW ECHO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ESEWD AT 50-60 MPH. THIS FAST MOTION PLUS FORE MENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS GREATER THAN 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOW. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES BOW ECHO FROM WEST OF DBQ TO EAST OF CID AROUND 00Z AND NEAR THE IL/IA BORDER FROM NEAR DBQ TO MLI AROUND 01Z. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40669405 42189288 42809221 42758950 40788954 40739092 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:44:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032343.i73Nhm902261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032343 WIZ000-IAZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697... VALID 032343Z - 040015Z WW WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. BOW ECHO IS IN EXTREME SERN COUNTIES OF WATCH IN SWRN WI WILL MOVE INTO WW 699 BY 00Z. THUS WW WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..IMY.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42669118 43339094 43529039 42969028 42679031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 23:47:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:47:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408032346.i73Nka902972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032345 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB AND WRN/SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700... VALID 032345Z - 040115Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2330Z...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. LARGE CELL ACROSS WRN DOUGLAS COUNTY NEB MOVING 300/20KT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH GOLF BALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 65 KT. PRESENCE OF EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND MLCAPE TO 4500 J/KG SUGGEST STORM WILL CONTINUE SEVERE INTO SWRN IA THROUGH 0130Z. VAD WIND PROFILE AT OAX CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME WIND DAMAGE WITH GUSTS TO 70KT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ROUGHLY 60W DSM SHOULD CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25 KT. ACTIVITY WILL INTERACT WITH COOL OUTFLOW FROM DOWNSTREAM BOW ECHO OVER E-CENTRAL IA AND WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT TRACKS TOWARD DSM AND INTO WW 698. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWLY 850MB JET SHOWN BY RUC BETWEEN 00-03Z WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIKELY SUSTAIN ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL IA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40559417 40589781 42039780 42009415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 00:17:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 19:17:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040017.i740H0913239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040016 ILZ000-WIZ000-040115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... VALID 040016Z - 040115Z DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SRN WI. LINE OF STORMS FROM EAST OF LNR TO 30 E DBQ IS MOVING EWD AT 45-50 MPH THROUGH EXTREME SRN WI. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE LINE NEAR A MSN-JVL LINE AT 01Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAST MOTION OF LINE INDICATES DAMAGING WINDS ARE A THREAT WITH THIS LINE. WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED ON THE NORTH END AS A BAND OF STORMS EXTEND EAST-WEST FROM MSN TO MKE...BUT SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...ARX... 42559037 43629013 43568859 43418764 42488777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 00:40:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 19:40:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040039.i740dU920823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040038 INZ000-ILZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040038Z - 040145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN IL AND NRN IND BY 01Z. BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN IA...IS MOVING EWD AT 50-60 MPH AND CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE LINE EAST OF THE WW 698 BY 0130Z. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG AS ACROSS IA...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 698. INSTABILITY AXIS DOES EXTEND SEWD ACROSS NRN IL...SO BOW ECHO MAY TURN MORE SEWD OR ESEWD AS IT MOVES INTO WRN IL. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40718956 42168954 42298872 41718669 41098530 39848601 39918748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 01:21:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040120.i741Kq900886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040119 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-040215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698... VALID 040119Z - 040215Z STRONG BOW ECHO MOVING INTO NWRN IL WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. BOW ECHO EXTENDS FROM EAST OF DBQ TO MLI TO 25 NW BRL. DVN AND ILX EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. WELL DEVELOPED BOW ECHO IS LOCATED NEAR DBQ...AND COUPLED WITH REAR INFLOW JET...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE BOW UNTIL IT MOVES TOTALLY OUT OF WW BETWEEN 0200-0300Z. OTHER STORMS HAVE SPREAD EWD FROM NEB/WRN IA INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LIKELY COLD POOLING...ANOTHER BOW ECHO IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OUT OF THIS CONVECTION SHORTLY. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42129408 42159249 42509135 42539032 42148944 41018958 40709199 40669416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 02:18:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 21:18:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040217.i742HV919028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040216 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-040315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NE/IA/NW IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 698...700... VALID 040216Z - 040315Z ...TORNADO WATCHES 698 AND 700 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BEFORE 03Z... STORMS ACROSS CNTRL/SW IA ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A BOW ECHO AND TRACK ACROSS SERN IA/EXTREME NRN MO/WRN IL SOUTH OF NRN IL SYSTEM. SEE MCD 1869 FOR MORE INFORMATION. IN ADDITION TO THE BOW ECHO THREAT...NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS STANLEY AND CUMING COUNTIES IN NE MAY SUGGEST MORE STORMS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO...AND SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. SINCE BOTH WATCHES EXPIRE AT 03Z...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. ..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40589414 40579657 40599780 42049777 42009578 42029419 41449415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 02:54:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 21:54:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040253.i742ra930399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040252 ILZ000-040345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702... VALID 040252Z - 040345Z DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NRN IL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE CHICAGO AREA. . LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM 30 EAST OF RFD TO 20 W MMO MOVING EAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. RADAR STILL INDICATES A STRONG MID LEVEL ROTATION/BOW HEAD/ 30 EAST RFD. THIS CIRCULATION PLUS THE FAST MOTION OF THE BOW INDICATES THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN IL. THE BOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN CHICAGO SUBURBS BY 0300Z AND THE REST OF THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 0300-0400Z. THE LAKE BREEZE HAS WORKED INLAND INTO THE CHI AREA AND MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL RESULT IN SEVERE WINDS. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41118949 41628885 41998871 42238889 42348786 41798748 40938834 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 03:57:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 22:57:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040356.i743uI915859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040338 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040338Z - 040445Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MO AND WRN IL SOUTH OF WW 703. STORMS IN SRN IA/EXTREME SERN NEB HAVE ORGANIZED INTO AN E-W LINE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THOUGH LATEST RUC/ETA FIELDS SUGGESTS STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD MORE EWD THAN SWD. HOWEVER...35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD. AIR MASS REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. IF IT APPEARS STORMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD... THEN WW LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 38599297 38789489 39489524 39959490 40068998 38759009 38629122  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 04:36:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 23:36:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040435.i744ZV927711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040434 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-040600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703... VALID 040434Z - 040600Z RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND MAY INCREASE SHORTLY. ONE LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF OTM TO 30 NW OF IRK...WHILE ANOTHER STRETCHES FROM SE OF DSM TO LWD TO 40 N STJ. THE FIRST LINE HAS SLOWED IN RESPONSE TO THE LINE BEHIND IT AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LWD TO 40 N OF IRK. HOWEVER..THE SECOND LINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORWARD PROPAGATING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY VEERS FROM SWLY TO WLY AND THE COLD POOL AIDS IN A SEWD ACCELERATION INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40329230 40369281 40539322 40739316 40839310 40789249 40739187 40689128 40379139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 04:49:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 23:49:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408040448.i744mf931750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040447 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-040545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 704... VALID 040447Z - 040545Z WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH 06Z ACROSS EXTREME SWRN MI AND NRN IND. A BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT 50 TO 55 MPH EXTENDED FROM BEH FROM 20 W SBN TO 40 N DNV WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. AT THE CURRENT MOTION THE LINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NEAR AZO TO WEST OF FWA TO NEAR LAF. ..IMY.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 40728736 41278662 41728655 41968654 42278619 42248551 41598513 40938537 40528607 40498758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 11:54:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 06:54:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041153.i74Brk924669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041044 OHZ000-INZ000-041245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041044Z - 041245Z LINE OF TSTMS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF IL/INDIANA BORDER -- AS OF 10Z -- SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD 25-30 KT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD W-CENTRAL OH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. STRONG GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR SPORADICALLY WITH CONVECTION FARTHER NE -- MOVING FROM NERN INDIANA ACROSS NWRN OH -- HOWEVER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER BECAUSE OF WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN LE SWWD ACROSS WRN OH...TO NEAR A LINE FROM MFD...DAY...IND...40 NNE HUF. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH BTU SHOULD DECELERATE AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY S OF MFD...WITH PARENT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO NE. BOUNDARY IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WWD ACROSS INDIANA AND WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY CONVERGENCE FOCUS...SFC AND ALOFT -- FOR NEXT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING JUST N OF BOUNDARY AS COLD POOL WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW POOL SHOULD HAVE SHALLOW SLOPE ANGLE...PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND EVENT PENETRATING THROUGH ASSOCIATED STATIC STABILITY LAYER DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY NOW OVER NERN INDIANA -- APCHG FWA AREA AS OF 1015Z -- HAS LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITY THAN CLUSTER W-NW OF IND. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...GIVEN PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN BUOYANCY WITH SWD AND SWWD EXTENT. ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR HUF...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW EXCEPT NEAR SRN END OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS WELL...SUGGESTING CORRIDOR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOST FAVORED. ..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 39388729 39878744 40278745 40618720 40658627 40728575 41048557 41158529 41158392 41058323 40838266 40668267 40188313 39748370 39628441 39348556  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 14:41:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 09:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041440.i74Ee7929657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041439 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-041645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OH / SWRN PA / NRN KY / NRN WV AND THE WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041439Z - 041645Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN OH / SERN IN ATTM SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS EVIDENT ACROSS SRN OH AND INTO SWRN PA / WV / KY ATTM...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...THOUGH DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...MCS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST ILN /WILMINGTON OH/ VWP SHOWS MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY AS WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED / STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS EWD INTO THIS REGION. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INDICATE THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK... 40638320 41018201 41068053 40507937 39917944 39098014 38628155 38528310 38568448 38958489 39778379 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 18:03:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 13:03:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041802.i74I26900788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041801 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-041930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN / PARTS OF NRN AND WRN KY / SRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041801Z - 041930Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN IN / NRN AND WRN KY. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR INCREASING THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN KY INTO SRN IN...WHERE MEAN-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS INDICATED. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN OH / WRN PA STORM CLUSTER / AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN FURTHER N INTO OH...MODERATE / NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT A INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 38818151 37968126 37488187 37138709 37888736 38808695 38918450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 18:33:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 13:33:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041832.i74IW9914302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041831 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL PA / SRN OH / WV / MD PANHANDLE / NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 706... VALID 041831Z - 042030Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AT NEAR 40 KT INTO WRN PA / NWRN WV. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WITH NEW WW LIKELY TO BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL PA / ERN WV / WRN MD / NRN VA. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE E OF BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED INTO S CENTRAL PA / WV AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG INTO NRN VA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- AS MCS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS PA WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAKER...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO NRN VA -- SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS FAR S AS NRN VA. THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE PARTS OF WW 706 AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH NEW WW LIKELY REQUIRED E OF THIS WATCH. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 41167886 41267824 40977744 40117710 38287825 38378406 38938338 39248117 40378021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 19:23:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 14:23:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408041922.i74JMZ905938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041921 ORZ000-WAZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN ORE AND SERN WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041921Z - 042115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN ORE AND SERN WA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. AT 19Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD TOWARD THE SWRN ORE COAST IN ADVANCE OF BROADER TROUGH IN THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ORE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY AID LARGE-SCALE UVV. TOWERING CU CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE CASCADES AND POINTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN ORE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S...AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /-13C/ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 8-8.5 C/KM / WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WITH LONGER-LIVED/STRONGER CELLS. SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43052205 45312162 45542140 46152046 46451958 46521909 46511861 46441776 45811742 45471740 44691754 43781902 42881986 42512023 42622168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:05:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:05:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042004.i74K4x925956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042003 MTZ000-IDZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN/CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042003Z - 042200Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL/WRN MT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 1950Z...CU CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WRN MT AND NRN ID. HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONG /40-50KT/ BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS ERN MT AND TROUGH ACROSS NWRN PACIFIC. THESE WIND FIELDS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTS A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS FROM ERN MT NWWD TO HVR. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS W-CENTRAL/WRN MT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE WEAK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING FROM HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 25-30 KT ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL MT BY EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE CELLS WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES / 700-500MB OF 8-8.5 C/KM / SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX... 45721427 45861510 48061651 48881642 48930867 47720791 47080797 46051070 45851244 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:40:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:40:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042039.i74KdF909355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042038 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN TX...AND FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042038Z - 042245Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD TO THE SWRN OK/NWRN TX BORDER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 2025Z...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM HEREFORD COUNTY TX ESEWD TO NEAR SPS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND HAVE ELIMINATED CIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20-25 KT. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST ACTIVITY UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY SEWD AT 5-10KT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34849918 34569807 34069789 33639846 33629941 33580025 33750160 34050292 34630352 35070326 35290271 35310171 35090039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042041.i74KfI910089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042039 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KY / SWRN WV / WRN VA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... VALID 042039Z - 042215Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL OH WSWWD INTO WRN KY...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS FAIRLY WEAK /GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH 700 MB ACCORDING TO JACKSON KY AND CHARLESTON WV RADARS/. NONETHELESS...25 TO 35 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WWD INTO WRN KY...AND MAY SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF TN AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT WIND FIELD MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WE WILL MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN WW 707. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 38868140 38688065 37118115 36218569 36258856 37388879 38508679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:49:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042048.i74Kmt913618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042038 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN TX...AND FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042038Z - 042245Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD TO THE SWRN OK/NWRN TX BORDER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 2025Z...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM HEREFORD COUNTY TX ESEWD TO NEAR SPS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND HAVE ELIMINATED CIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20-25 KT. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST ACTIVITY UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY SEWD AT 5-10KT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34849918 34569807 34069789 33639846 33629941 33580025 33750160 34050292 34630352 35070326 35290271 35310171 35090039  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:50:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042049.i74KnT913823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042039 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN KY / SWRN WV / WRN VA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... VALID 042039Z - 042215Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL OH WSWWD INTO WRN KY...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS FAIRLY WEAK /GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH 700 MB ACCORDING TO JACKSON KY AND CHARLESTON WV RADARS/. NONETHELESS...25 TO 35 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WWD INTO WRN KY...AND MAY SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF TN AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT WIND FIELD MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WE WILL MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MAJORITY OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN WW 707. ..GOSS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 38868140 38688065 37118115 36218569 36258856 37388879 38508679  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:59:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:59:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042058.i74Kwb918164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042057 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042057Z - 042330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA INCLUDING NERN NM/SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD ACROSS WRN KS IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO/NERN NM AT THE PRESENT TIME. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND RANGE TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SERN CO. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING IS CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25-30KT...AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED/SEVERE CELLS. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD WITH LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37660502 38040491 38540475 38650421 38590285 38140238 37630206 36930202 36070202 35730230 35130361 34860465 34680564 34680607 36430548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 21:24:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 16:24:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042123.i74LN9929126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042122 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-042345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...ERN/NERN WY...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042122Z - 042345Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM MLS TO SNY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AT 21Z...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES AN ENEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS N-CENTRAL WY AND WILL CREST 500MB RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN WY/ERN MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRESENCE OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS INDUCING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY NWD ACROSS ERN MT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F ACROSS THE REGION WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN WY NWD INTO ERN MT. DESPITE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG /30-35KT/ AND BILLINGS MT VAD INDICATES 40-45KTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...WITH 30-35KT PER MEDICINE BOW PROFILER IN SERN WY. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SERN MT SSEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH LONGER-LIVED STORMS AS CELLS TRACK EWD AROUND 25 KT. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 44020327 43470323 42780309 41100303 41090451 43330597 44110660 45320751 46000773 46610749 46850609 46700434 46090406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 21:51:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 16:51:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042150.i74Loc908393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042148 NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-042345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...MD...DE...FAR NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708... VALID 042148Z - 042345Z SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY EWD WITH A THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE EXTENDING EAST OF WW 708 THIS EVENING. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE LINE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND REMAIN STRONG AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS MD AND SE PA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PA AND NJ. A LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS TRACKING EWD NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WLY 850 MB JET PUNCHING EWD ACROSS SRN PA BEHIND THE LINE. THE JET MAX WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE LINE HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS SFC TEMPS COOL THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER THE LINE WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERE LEVELS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHEN THE JET BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39147844 40887667 41117562 40907408 39137479 38977586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 23:46:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 18:46:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408042345.i74NjF918305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042343 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND NRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709... VALID 042343Z - 050045Z CONTINUE WW. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES NEWD ACROSS NERN ORE INTO FAR SERN WA/NWRN ID. MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ORE WILL MAINTAIN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST CELLS OVER NRN UMATILLA COUNTY ORE AND GARFIELD COUNTY WA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY 200/20-25KT. AIR MASS CONTINUES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE / MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG / WITH SEVERE THREAT DRIVEN LARGELY BY FAVORABLE SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR /30-40 KT/. LONG-LIVED STORMS IN LOW WBZ HEIGHT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND INTO FAR ERN WA/NRN ID THIS EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LEADS TO WEAKENING OF STORM UPDRAFTS AFTER DARK. ..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 43721904 43732183 45172152 46481999 47761819 47981714 47821606 47251559 45631611 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 15:01:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 10:01:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051500.i75F0F924097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051459 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / CENTRAL AND ERN NC / NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051459Z - 051700Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VICINITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN VA WSWWD ACROSS TN. ADDITIONAL AXIS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AS SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. MAINLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALLOW STRONG HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX IS INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER NERN TN ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 30 KT MID LEVEL WLYS. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS E OF THE APPALACHIANS...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE FROM SERN VA SWWD INTO NRN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AHEAD OF ONGOING RAIN BAND AND ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS / SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH MODERATE / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE N-S LINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TIMING OF WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 37337591 35757589 33917896 34168033 34918215 36997865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 18:37:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 13:37:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051836.i75Iag927160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051835 MTZ000-WYZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051835Z - 052100Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN MT WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL MT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN ID. FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH 18Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWING 35KT WINDS AT 500MB AND 70KT WINDS NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. MEANWHILE...INSOLATIONAL HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF MT WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENTLY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF MT. LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ENHANCED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IMPINGES ON THE REGION FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED T-STORMS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WW LIKELY NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO... 48621231 47481121 46070965 45200931 45001002 45011091 44821119 44711176 44581237 44621275 44881320 45241358 45571380 45981357 47011361 47831405 48911483 48961343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 19:13:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 14:13:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051912.i75JCe913164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051911 GAZ000-ALZ000-052045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AL / NRN GA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051911Z - 052045Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH A FEW PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD THREAT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF AL / GA...WHERE WEAK / ROUGHLY W-E BOUNDARY CONTINUES SAGGING SWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM NERN GA NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE FLOW WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT INTO AL. NONETHELESS...1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS AREA WILL FUEL CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED -- PARTICULARLY FROM WRN GA WWD -- BUT LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34498567 34418340 33168307 32598570 33538727 34188735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 19:34:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 14:34:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408051933.i75JXq924586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051932 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA / PARTS OF SC / ERN HALF OF NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711... VALID 051932Z - 052100Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WW AREA...WHERE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NC INVOF SURFACE LOW / FRONT. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN GA TOWARD PARTS OF WRN SC...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AND CLOSE TO WW AREA. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- AND THUS GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL -- REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT NERN GA. EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PULSE / MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING EWD WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... 35537951 36687687 36667551 35207544 33048195 33218306 33968328 34798275 35348091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 20:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 15:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052041.i75KfI923796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052040 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WY...NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052040Z - 052245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT 2025Z...A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING 270/15KT NEAR THE SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE BORDER. STORMS APPEARED TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SURGED SWD ACROSS ERN WY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND SSELY FLOW AROUND 15 KT WILL PROVIDE MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW TO ONGOING STORMS. RELATIVE MINIMUM IN FIELD OF ABSOLUTE CIN SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS FAR NERN CO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL T-STORM DEVELOP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MEDICINE BOW AND MERRIMAN PROFILERS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 70KT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41190468 41550433 42280388 42920366 42990254 42960166 42080187 41020206 40550215 40430230 40320251 40130281 40110342 40180381 40450437 40790465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 21:46:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 16:46:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052145.i75LjQ919696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052144 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SC...ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711... VALID 052144Z - 052315Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE IN ERN NC. NEW CELLS MAY ALSO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SC AND ERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM ERN NC EXTENDING WSWWD INTO NRN GA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STRONG STORMS IN WW 711. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW ABOUT 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS ERN NC. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SC AND ERN GA CURRENTLY HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33008284 33998272 34728019 34977812 35717629 36097547 35717511 35157504 34057665 33727887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:08:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:08:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052207.i75M7P928088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052206 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 052206Z - 052330Z CONTINUE WW. AT 22Z...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING GTF AREA IS TRACKING 225/37KT. THIS CLUSTER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 42KT SURFACE WINDS AT HLN AT 2119Z AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH GREAT FALLS VICINITY DURING NEXT 30 MINUTES AND THEN NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH 00Z. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT ACTIVITY TO NERN EDGE OF WW 712 AROUND 00Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44661327 49001411 49001021 44660957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:09:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:09:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052208.i75M8Q929125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052207 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...CNTRL LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052207Z - 060000Z CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 32029462 31859306 31938954 30828911 30699294 31179498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:11:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:11:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052210.i75MAe929736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052206 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... VALID 052206Z - 052330Z CONTINUE WW. AT 22Z...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING GTF AREA IS TRACKING 225/37KT. THIS CLUSTER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 42KT SURFACE WINDS AT HLN AT 2119Z AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH GREAT FALLS VICINITY DURING NEXT 30 MINUTES AND THEN NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT THROUGH 00Z. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MT LATER THIS EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT ACTIVITY TO NERN EDGE OF WW 712 AROUND 00Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44661327 49001411 49001021 44660957  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 22:12:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 17:12:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052211.i75MB9929833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052207 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...CNTRL LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052207Z - 060000Z CONVECTIVE LINE FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 32029462 31859306 31938954 30828911 30699294 31179498  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 23:22:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 18:22:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408052321.i75NLS921113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052320 WYZ000-MTZ000-060045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713... VALID 052320Z - 060045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT. CAPPING INVERSION HAS LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF S-CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 20 SE BIL AT 2305Z INITIATED ALONG A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE-SW SOUTH OF BIL. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND PROFILE AT BIL SHOWS VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60KT. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER NORTH....CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE BETWEEN GTF AND LWT. PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND EMBEDDED BOWS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM LWT NWD...ACROSS WW 712. HOWEVER...SRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EFFECT THE NRN PORTION OF WW 713 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SRN EXTENT OF LINE MAY BE AIDED BY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD AND CROSSING INTO FAR SWRN MT AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 44920966 46790961 46780623 44920639 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 02:17:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 21:17:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408060216.i762GP911409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060215 MTZ000-060315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... VALID 060215Z - 060315Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR NE MT...WATCH 714 REMAINS IN EFFECT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE N TO NE INTO PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DISORGANIZED THOUGH SOME EVIDENCE EXISTS OF A DEVELOPING COLD POOL BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY WINDS OBSERVED AT HVR AND LWT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HORUS. THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG...HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY COULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS...STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..LEVIT.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... 46910453 48850408 48851004 46901025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 04:54:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 23:54:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408060453.i764rI927119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060452 MTZ000-060645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... VALID 060452Z - 060645Z BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NE MT WHERE A MOIST TONGUE IS IN PLACE WITH LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z ACROSS NE MT SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT WITHIN THE LINE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALONG COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EWD TOWARDS THE ND BORDER AS STRONG CAPPING IS WELL ENTRENCHED. ..BROYLES.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW... 47020620 48300654 48720667 48850627 48710442 48040426 47120460 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 18:30:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 13:30:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408061830.i76IU0907589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061827 MNZ000-NDZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061827Z - 062030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL ND SSEWD INTO ERN SD. PRESSURE FALLS EXIST ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW TO 40 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-END SEVERE HAIL...AND MAY BECOME BETTER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF SURFACE HEATING WITHIN UPSTREAM AIR MASS. ..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46060063 46300098 47940062 49000086 48979723 46299679  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 19:42:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 14:42:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408061941.i76JfT905486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061940 TXZ000-NMZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...EXTREME E-CENTRAL NM ALONG TX BORDER CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061940Z - 062145Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. WHILE IT REMAINS COOL E OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S JUST W...ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RATHER SLOWLY AS OF 1930Z...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INCREASE QUALITY OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ON MOIST SIDE OF SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO LOW-END SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY 20-25 KTS...SLOW STORMS MOTIONS WITH SLY COMPONENT WILL INCREASE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SR WINDS...INCREASING FAVORABILITY FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE. ..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 33740266 34090306 35250335 35740318 35930275 35860210 35000180 33740169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 19:45:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 14:45:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408061945.i76Jj3906885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061943 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-062145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY / SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061943Z - 062145Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKENING / MOVING NEWD TOWARD ALBERTA / SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...SECOND FEATURE NOW CROSSING NRN NV SHOULD SPREAD INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AND ENHANCED /30 TO 35 KT/ MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS NWRN WY AND INTO SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY / SWRN MT AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST / INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL -- PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO S CENTRAL MT. ..GOSS.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH... 44661118 46291160 46720970 46570727 45850630 44560703 43860878 43251103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 22:56:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 17:56:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408062255.i76Mtk913458@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062254 MTZ000-WYZ000-070000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WY AND SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 062254Z - 070000Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING UNTIL 900 PM MDT... STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN NUMBER DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE WW. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS TO THIS POINT...A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 43640628 43651054 46731020 46750586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 23:31:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 18:31:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408062330.i76NUP923895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062329 TXZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 062329Z - 070030Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BETWEEN LBB AND AMA. STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER...WITH ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE DEEP MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 35160293 35340203 35110107 34130106 33060111 33580288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 23:43:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 18:43:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408062342.i76NgE927432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062341 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-070145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CENTRAL SD...SERN ND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 062341Z - 070145Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FROM SERN ND INTO NERN CO...BEFORE MOVING INTO STABLE AIR. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED ON THE LARGE SCALE...THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO SERN ND. MVX AND ABR VWPS SHOW WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. FARTHER S INTO SD...SURFACE BASED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED...WITH ONLY SMALL LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LOW END SEVERE HAIL GIVEN LOW RH SUB CLOUD LAYER AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...BRIEF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED. STORMS FARTHER SWWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD STORMS...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 43120284 44350143 45630034 47659884 47849704 47299689 45939684 44179784 43099878 42449996 40590175 39280293 39520511 41620406 42630339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 01:05:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 20:05:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070104.i7714r919819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070103 TXZ000-070200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716... VALID 070103Z - 070200Z WW 716 SHOULD EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE WW. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LOCATED WEST OF LBB AND 30 ESE CVS TO 20 SW PVW. THE STORMS ARE MOVING/DEVELOPING SSEWD AT AROUND 25 KT...INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG STILL EXISTS IN THE SRN PORTION OF WW...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE WW BY 02Z SHOULD BE DOWN TO ONE OR TWO AT MOST...SO WW IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 35180289 35090214 34590115 34130106 33060111 33140293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 01:24:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 20:24:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070123.i771NB925427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070122 MTZ000-WYZ000-070215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT AND NRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 070122Z - 070215Z SEVERE STORM CONTINUES IN WW EAST OF BIL. ONE INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED EAST OF BIL AND APPEARED TO BE INGESTING THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES NEWD INTO NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF BIL...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER FLOW TO THE WEST OF AND SOUTH OF BIL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ... 46690898 46670575 44760613 45260876 45620918 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 02:38:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 21:38:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070237.i772bl913609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070236 MTZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715... VALID 070236Z - 070300Z STORMS LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF BIL ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/COOLS. WW WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 46760797 46680586 45480593 45450748 45760806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 04:48:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 23:48:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070447.i774lr919417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070446 TXZ000-070645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070446Z - 070645Z SLOW MOVING MCS NOW SHIFTING SWD AT 20 KT WILL CONTINUE SSEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TX FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH ORGANIZED NATURE OF LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NWWD JUST NORTH OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WEST TX...WITH A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CENTRAL TX. EXPECT ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SSEWD ALONG THIS GRADIENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AS FEED OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR PERSISTS WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS VERY WEAK...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF DOWNDRAFTS/SURFACE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG WNWRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MCS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /MITIGATED BY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THIS REGION. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO TRAIN FROM COCHRAN/HOCKLEY/YOAKUM COUNTIES SEWD TOWARDS MITCHELL/COKE/NOLAN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ..EVANS.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...FWD...EWX... 32160151 33300272 33700215 32560058 31850064 32869999 31469870 30459899 30389990 31600142 33140228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 07:30:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 02:30:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408070729.i777TZ932231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070728 MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-070900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN WA/NRN ID INTO NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070728Z - 070900Z THREAT FOR HAIL IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NERN WA/NRN ID INTO NWRN MT THROUGH 12Z. HAIL SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE VALUES...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENT. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AIDING IN MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY 500 MB JET AND 90 KT WLY 300 MB JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH 12Z. MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ROTATION. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX... 48981310 48181283 47471382 47031506 46841603 47521649 47981700 48351800 48571839 49001838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 16:25:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 11:25:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408071624.i77GOd925551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071624 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071623 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-071900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071623Z - 071900Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH DIAMETERS LESS THAN 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED DUE TO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...BUT 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED IN 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD...BRINGING 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -17 TO -20 C OVER NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S F AND WITH SOME HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP....AND SOME WILL LIKELY HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LESS THAN 1.00" DIAMETER. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...THUS STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LIVED. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR HAIL WILL BE OVER ME...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S F. ..JEWELL.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 42277094 42397182 42627337 43567435 44617442 45017451 45027146 45277137 45327092 45897026 46707001 47486923 47456908 47306908 47196887 47386826 47066779 45736776 45596744 45206735 44806697 44516798 44066919 43447042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 18:19:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 13:19:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408071818.i77III928676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071817 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/SD AND EXTREME ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071817Z - 071945Z THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN ND AND PERHAPS NWRN SD BY 20Z. COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF ISN TO EAST OF MLS TO SHR AT 18Z. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MT/SD BORDER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR PHP AND THEN NEWD TO WEST OF ABR. SURFACE WINDS WERE ELY NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND/EXTREME ERN MT. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND ALL MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 21Z...AS CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N CENTRAL MT. STRENGTHING MID LEVEL WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45600402 47500419 48900393 48910135 45590017 43690085 43810262 44440367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 20:46:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 15:46:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408072046.i77Kk4908623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072044 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME WRN KS / SWRN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072044Z - 072245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES TROUGH EXTENDS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH AND HELPING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. AT THE SURFACE...DRY SURGE HAS DECREASED DEWPOINTS INTO NRN CO...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F INTO EXTREME ERN CO. DEWPOINTS IN WRN KS IN THE MID 60S F WILL LIKELY MIX INTO THE 50S AS HEATING CONTINUES. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME LARGE HAIL...WITH PULSE / MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXPECTED. ..JEWELL.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40500141 39310137 37060158 37140405 37800453 38720474 39410367 40530281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 20:53:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 15:53:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408072052.i77KqM909947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072051 SDZ000-NDZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717... VALID 072051Z - 072145Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST DURING THE NEXT HOUR FORM EAST OF ISN TO DIK TO REJ. THUNDERSTORMS NUMBERS AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING EWD AT 20-25 MPH INTO WRN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATION IN STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45160386 46600319 47740334 48230378 48820330 48990260 48540213 47630168 46690159 45480204 45080253 44930309 44930370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 23:26:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 18:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408072325.i77NPg918074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072324 SDZ000-NDZ000-080030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717... VALID 072324Z - 080030Z ...WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF ND INTO NCNTRL SD... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL SOON EXIT ERN MOST PORTIONS OF WW OVER CNTRL ND. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS DEVELOPED SOME LOOSE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...IT'S POSSIBLE FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY INCREASE AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 08/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45120242 46450168 47590178 47439998 45139953 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 00:36:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 19:36:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408080035.i780Zh903722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080034 SDZ000-080130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 718... VALID 080034Z - 080130Z DISCRETE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM MELLETTE COUNTY INTO PENNINGTON COUNTY SD. 00Z SOUNDING FROM RAP SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY HIGH BASED GIVEN THE 30-40 DEG F TEMPERATURE SPREADS. DOWNSTREAM SOUNDING FROM ABR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND LOWER IF MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL SD CAN ENTRAIN INTO THESE UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43500165 44050290 44720211 43929950 43199935 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 01:47:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 20:47:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408080146.i781kH921765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080145 TXZ000-NMZ000-080345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080145Z - 080345Z ...MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN NM/NWRN TX FROM SAN MIGUEL COUNTY NM...INTO NWRN OLDHAM COUNTY TX. STORM MERGERS AND AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUGGEST A COLD POOL MAY BE EVOLVING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION FAVOR SWD PROPAGATION ALONG THE NM/TX STATE LINE. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL...GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 36040321 35360246 33630229 33490382 35450472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 08:02:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 03:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408080801.i7881u921076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080800 NEZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080800Z - 080930Z ISOLATED HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS /THROUGH 10-11Z/. AREA WIND PROFILERS AND VAD WIND DATA SHOW A 25-30 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL NEB. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN NEB EXTENDED FROM NERN NEB SWWD TO BUB AND THEN WWD TO NEAR 20 SW MHN. ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL AID IN A CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE W AND NW OF THE STRONGEST STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN HOLT COUNTY. ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION. BASED ON THE 03Z/06Z RUC...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY 12Z AS IT VEERS WLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING. ..PETERS.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 42459849 42709746 41339666 40829824 40820020 41510134 42790136 42859919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:19:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:19:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081718.i78HIk922924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081717 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-081815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN WI AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081717Z - 081815Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN WI AND NRN IA FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AT 17Z...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR STC TO 30 E RWF TO 50 SE FSD. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ...AND SHOULD DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 30 SE RWF. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S...THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42979583 43319568 44229444 45099404 45359391 45509251 44739141 42549306 42489424 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:39:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:39:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081738.i78Hcl930167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081737 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081737Z - 081900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ND CONTINUES MOVING EWD. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -17 C. ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW IS VEERING...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F...THIS WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW...BUT STRONG FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BE RATHER LONG LIVED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES OVER SRN ND AND NRN SD...UNDERNEATH COMPACT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THEREFORE...BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN ND...EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...DEGREE OF AMBIENT VORTICITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES CANOT BE RULED OUT. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48999606 47149518 45639491 45629656 45629858 47019895 48379973 49010012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:43:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:43:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081742.i78HgV931293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081741 COR MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081741Z - 081900Z CORRECTED FOR ACCIDENTAL TRANSMISSION PRIOR TO SPELL CHECK STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ND CONTINUES MOVING EWD. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -17 C. ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW IS VEERING...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F...THIS WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW...BUT STRONG FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BE RATHER LONG LIVED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES OVER SRN ND AND NRN SD...UNDERNEATH COMPACT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THEREFORE...BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN ND...EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...DEGREE OF AMBIENT VORTICITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48999606 47149518 45639491 45629656 45629858 47019895 48379973 49010012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 18:07:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 13:07:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408081807.i78I74906713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081805 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NRN KS/ EXTREME NWRN MO/SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081805Z - 081900Z WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...NRN KS...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S ACROSS NRN KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WHERE MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AND CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BETWEEN HLC AND LNK. OTHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR FSD TO AIA. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK AS A SURFACE TROUGH...WITH NLY WINDS NORTH OF IT...IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF OMA TO LBF. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BACKED AT SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS SITES IN NRN KS... SUGGESTING INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SRN NEB. ONCE SURFACE BASE STORMS DEVELOP...WHICH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 200-300 PM CDT...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40230087 40939918 41499718 41879556 40169447 39069560 38599800 38430055 38990141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 20:11:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 15:11:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082010.i78KAh910335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082008 TXZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 082008Z - 082145Z THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SSEWD AT 10-15 KT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN A BAND FROM WEST OF TPL TO SE OF JCT. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEST OF TPL TO NEAR JCT. SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...850/700 MB DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY NEAR 17C AND 8C. BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD AND STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JCT TOWARD SAT. SLOW MOTION OF STORMS...EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30670054 30719935 31489821 31399801 31089794 30509860 30159967 30370069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 20:44:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 15:44:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082043.i78Khm919010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082042 TXZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 082042Z - 082215Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS EXTREME SERN NEB AND NRN KS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM 30 EAST OF LNK TO 20 SE HSI. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN KS. MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD AID THESE STORMS IN INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS ALSO DEVELOP NEAR CNK WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30670054 30719935 31489821 31399801 31089794 30509860 30159967 30370069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 21:05:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 16:05:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082104.i78L4V924481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082102 MNZ000-NDZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719... VALID 082102Z - 082230Z STORMS APPEAR TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WW AREA BENEATH UPPER LOW...WITHIN SURFACE CONFLUENT ZONES. LINE OF CONVECTION NOW E OF RED RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF WW...THUS ADDITIONAL WW OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED INTO NWRN MN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG OVER SERN ND AND NWRN MN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG VORTICITY WITHIN THE COLUMN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... 46149625 46769839 47119906 48279909 49009926 49009501 46049398 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 22:05:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 17:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408082204.i78M4Z908582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082203 WIZ000-MNZ000-090000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN...NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082203Z - 090000Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE MESO-LOW WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM E-CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HERE. FARTHER WEST...LINE OF CU ALONG MN/SD BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ERN EDGE OF VORT MAX / COOLING ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EWD...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD OVER CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY WRN WI...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43539119 43589276 43649422 44809500 45619497 46089490 46249235 45939139 45209109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 00:10:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 19:10:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408090010.i790A2909822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090009 KSZ000-090115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720... VALID 090009Z - 090115Z ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 20KT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH SRN PORTIONS OF WW AROUND 0200-0230Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP SWWD ALONG PSEUDO DRY LINE BEFORE SUNSET. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... 39669881 39959613 38709606 38369803 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 02:13:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 21:13:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408090212.i792CD911480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090211 WIZ000-MNZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722... VALID 090211Z - 090315Z WLY WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD EXPANSION OF INCREASINGLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN...INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST HAIL THREAT WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE UPDRAFTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44649046 45559341 47719277 46869219 44968887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 15:55:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 10:55:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091554.i79FsW901902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091553 MIZ000-WIZ000-091730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WI AND THE WRN UP OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091553Z - 091730Z CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL WI /W OF AUW AND VOK/ TO ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR DVN. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM VORTICITY LOBE ATTENDANT TO UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WRN WI. TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT AS THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-45KTS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS/. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUOYANT LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS /I.E. 0-3KM MLCAPES OF 100-150 J/KG/ AND LOCAL BACKING OF WINDS NEAR SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... 44548974 45328953 46498893 46938807 46518711 44828745 43458811 42718841 42988989 43798996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:03:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:03:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091802.i79I2E902536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091801 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091801Z - 091930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:05:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:05:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091804.i79I4K903268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091803 COR OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091803Z - 091930Z CORRECTED FOR HEADER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:23:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:23:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091822.i79IMr911906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091801 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091801Z - 091930Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:24:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:24:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091824.i79IOB912645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091803 COR OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091803Z - 091930Z CORRECTED FOR HEADER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 19Z. A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXING OUT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS...AND LOW WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR SPD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 60S F...AND MORNING DDC AND AMA RAOBS CONFIRM 100 MB MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 F. THEREFORE...RUC ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...WITH A WELL-MIXED 65 F DEWPOINT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...WITH SLY WINDS AT AMA AND NLY AT DDC. GIVEN THAT CIN HAS BEEN ERODED...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 19Z. STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS WELL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BELOW 20-25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38700005 37309996 36369983 36090200 36180298 36840418 37500424 38160394 40090383 39990219  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 18:31:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 13:31:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408091830.i79IUe916068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091829 ILZ000-MOZ000-092000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IL WWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091829Z - 092000Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NW OF UIN SWWD TO N OF SZL. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON /OWING TO CONTINUED ISOLATION/ WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED ON THE WINCHESTER IL PROFILER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX... 39869269 40249066 40059006 39529033 38969226 38459392 39009414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 20:34:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 15:34:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092033.i79KXL912768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092032 MIZ000-WIZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI AND THE UP OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 723... VALID 092032Z - 092200Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UP OF MI. AS OF 2015Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES MI MOVING NEWD AT 30-35KTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE WITHIN REGION OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND NEAR CENTER OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. COMBINATION OF WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS AND EXPANDING STORM COLD POOLS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL UP OF MI. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ..MEAD.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46738876 48048478 45278477 43958880 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 22:08:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 17:08:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092207.i79M7p928733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092206 AZZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092206Z - 100000Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. 18Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20 INCH. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...WITH 100 MB MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 105 HAVE ERODED MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THEREFORE...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EASY TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN RIM IS SENDING OUTFLOW WWD...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THESE BOUNDARIES. IN ADDITION...AREA VWPS INDICATE ELY FLOW OF 5-15 KTS SEVERAL KM DEEP OVER SRN NM AND SERN AZ...WHILE IWA RADAR INDICATES WLY FLOW. THUS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THIS CONVERGENT ZONE. GIVEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF DCAPE AVAILABLE AROUND 1800 J/KG...AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31581180 31851248 34001247 34181206 34161136 33991081 33821040 32371051 31361070 31331105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 22:38:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 17:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092237.i79Mbb909819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092236 COZ000-092330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... VALID 092236Z - 092330Z CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITHIN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST A RELATIVE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS ZONE MAY CLUSTER BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AND MOVING SEWD TOWARD ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37090455 39750500 39250273 37050259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 23:32:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 18:32:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408092332.i79NWC928985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092330 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-100030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SWRN KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725... VALID 092330Z - 100030Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW... VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SUSTAINED SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL AID ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 08/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36750504 38229902 35499940 35570412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 00:24:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 19:24:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408100023.i7A0Nb915258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100022 INZ000-MIZ000-100115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100022Z - 100115Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN IND/NWRN OH... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT REGION APPEAR TO BE SPREADING INTO NWRN IND...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG VEERED...BUT MAIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT... 40708753 41848606 41528480 39848708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 00:52:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 19:52:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408100052.i7A0q3924090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100051 KSZ000-OKZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725... VALID 100051Z - 100145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725 MAY BE REPLACED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WRN KS... EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO THE LAST HOUR WILL SOON EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S WITH SSEWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. WRN PORTIONS OF KS REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE MODIFYING DDC/DEN SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SFC/TEMP DEW POINTS. THIS REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW725. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36700181 39660190 39490025 37069982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 02:15:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 21:15:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408100215.i7A2F5917554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100214 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726... VALID 100214Z - 100315Z WW 726 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI FOR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS SOUTH OF WW AREA ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH. AT 0155Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL LOWER MI SWD INTO NRN IND ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WAS A SUPERCELL ACROSS SERN GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL LOWER MI AND ADDITION LONG-LIVED CELL MOVING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY IN SRN LOWER MI. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 25KTS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL REDUCE CAPE DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF STORMS. OBSERVED 00Z MUCAPE AT DTX WAS AROUND 700 J/KG...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS MAY MAINTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS FOR NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE LESSENING INSTABILITY REDUCES UPDRAFT INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM MI/IND BORDER SWWD TO 40NW LAF...MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG CORES NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH. ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR ERN LOWER MI OR ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN OH. ..BANACOS.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 40828748 42108667 45698568 45708297 42118413 40838494 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 22:49:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 17:49:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408102248.i7AMmwV13815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102247 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102247Z - 102345Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM AHEAD OF APPARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH TIME POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. FARTHER NORTH...WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS WRN KS WITH CONVECTION NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM ECNTRL CO INTO WCNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY ORGANIZE THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS WRN KS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36340336 36990211 39090199 38950018 36090020 35160290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 23:29:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 18:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408102328.i7ANSPV29452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102327 NYZ000-PAZ000-110100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY/NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 730... VALID 102327Z - 110100Z PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 730 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E/NE ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 730 FROM CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA. STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN MODERATE WIND FIELDS/MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WW 730 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..GUYER.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 43237796 44177493 41857492 40377933 41797782 42377861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 23:42:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 18:42:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408102341.i7ANfhV01491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102341 TXZ000-NMZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102341Z - 110045Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NM... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM...ALONG SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY INFLUENCED BY UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CO. WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTICELL UPDRAFTS...AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SSEWD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION HOWEVER AT THIS TIME A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 08/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34160490 35810350 35720274 34710285 33430301 33070452 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 00:48:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 19:48:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110047.i7B0lHV21814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110046 COZ000-110145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 731... VALID 110046Z - 110145Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN CO... DEEPENING ELY FLOW OVER ERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AS FRONTAL SURGE PLUNGES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DNR FAVORS SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER STORM MERGERS MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40640505 40280366 38340257 37750404 39090526 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 02:17:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 21:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110217.i7B2H2V17040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110215 OKZ000-KSZ000-110315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110215Z - 110315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING INVOF INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...REGION REMAINS WITHIN DEEP CONVERGENCE NEAR H85 WARM FRONT WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE SLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING ACROSS OK. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR...ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. IN ADDITION...EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF DEVELOPING MCS NOW OVER ERN CO MAY PRODUCE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS LATER TONIGHT. ..EVANS.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35369793 36009989 37889958 37299773 36689580 34809597 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 03:18:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 22:18:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110317.i7B3HqV04558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110316 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-110415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 732... VALID 110316Z - 110415Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF WW SHORTLY... SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SERN CO...STRETCHING INTO NWRN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE GAINING SOME MOMENTUM AS IT PROPAGATES SSEWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER PRESSURE RISES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 39030144 38869980 36530038 36560221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 04:45:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 23:45:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110444.i7B4iYV32149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110443 OKZ000-TXZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733... VALID 110443Z - 110545Z SFC PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF NRN OK. WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS DEEPENING AIRMASS APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK. LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD PROVE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL OK. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... 36919709 36319600 35289637 35610019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 06:09:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 01:09:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110608.i7B68sV25745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110607 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NRN/CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110607Z - 110800Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND NRN/CNTRL AR EARLY TODAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD INTO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE AIDED BY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME... WILL LEAD TO FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36789583 34959580 34569107 36369088 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 07:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 02:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408110743.i7B7h3V21663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110742 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-110945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...OK...NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733...736... VALID 110742Z - 110945Z WIDESPREAD STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WATCHES 733 AND 736 THROUGH EARLY MORNING. STRONG AND DEEP FRONTAL SURGE SUPERIMPOSED UPON NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST COMPOSITE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SEGMENTED AND FRACTURED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX/OK PNHDL REGION ESEWD ACROSS SRN KS/CNTRL OK...AND THEN EAST ACROSS ERN OK INTO NRN AR. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOLOW AND OUTFLOW SURGE FROM BEAVER COUNTY OK SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL. ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM GRAVITY WAVE PULSE OVER SWRN OK EWD ACROSS NRN KIOWA TO CNTRL GRADY COUNTIES IN WCNTRL OK. MEANWHILE... WEST-TO-EAST BANDS OF STORMS APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE FROM SRN KS INTO NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO THE ESEWD MOVING MESOLOW AND ABUNDANT OPPORTUNITY FOR CELL MERGERS AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37849960 36719583 33639591 33680156 35970158 36149997 37849981 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 10:25:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 05:25:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111024.i7BAOYV08159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111023 ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-111200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NWRN TX...AND NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736...737... VALID 111023Z - 111200Z LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/WRN AND CNTRL OK THIS MORNING. STRONG OUTFLOW SURGE WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EAST OVER KINGFISHER... CANADIAN...CADDO...AND COMANCHE COUNTIES OF NCNTRL OK. MESONET OBS IN WASHITA AND KIOWA COUNTIES RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 59MPH AND 50MPH RESPECTIVELY AS THIS LINE PASSED. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL OK THROUGH 12Z. TO THE EAST ACROSS TSTM WATCH 737...FRONTAL ZONE WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NRN AR. A FEW CELLS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER NRN AR BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS WEAKER THAN FARTHER WEST. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH WATCH EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34939594 33639597 33689995 36049882 35919593 36839589 36629369 36239343 35899032 34549049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 11:51:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 06:51:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111150.i7BBovV05193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111149 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111149Z - 111345Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF SERN OK INTO NERN TX THIS MORNING AS MCS MOVES ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN AR. A WELL ORGANIZED MCS WITH STRONG MESOLOW AND OUTFLOW SURGE WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR. WHILE MCS APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MO/MID MS VALLEYS...DEGREE OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION TO THE MCS...AND MOIST WEAKLY CAPPED UPSTREAM AIRMASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST SERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE NOW SURGING ACROSS SCNTRL OK. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM POST-FRONTAL STORMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN AR. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WAS IN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY NOT SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33589617 34009732 36329403 35329126 33159488 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:02:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:02:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111601.i7BG1EV19491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111559 NYZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-111730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111559Z - 111730Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD INTO ERN PA/NJ. MODIFICATION OF 12Z OKX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA/NWRN NJ MAY TEND TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA OR CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCATED FARTHER E INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE MODEST WSWLY FLOW...APPROACH OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL EFFECTIVELY STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... 44207525 44077290 39437355 39577583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:33:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:33:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111632.i7BGWaV03091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111631 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-111800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111631Z - 111800Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND ADJACENT VA PIEDMONT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM N OF ROA TO N OF HKY. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WIND SHEAR PROFILES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 37397962 39287812 39277571 35527862 35738094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:34:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111634.i7BGY1V03532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111633 COR DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-111800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111633Z - 111800Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO THIRD PARAGRAPH TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND ADJACENT VA PIEDMONT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM N OF ROA TO N OF HKY. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WIND SHEAR PROFILES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 37397962 39287812 39277571 35527862 35738094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 17:24:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 12:24:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111723.i7BHNcV28273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111722 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-111945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111722Z - 111945Z INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO NRN MS. WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ALTHOUGH WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS AR THIS AFTERNOON INVOF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. PERIPHERY OF ONGOING COMPLEX WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS WARMED IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S F...IN MIDST OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CINH EXISTS...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS PULSE MODE AND/OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 32139544 32509494 33559320 34069119 34978988 34258942 33549000 32669108 31669314 31279474 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 18:13:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 13:13:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111812.i7BICiV20084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111811 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-111945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111811Z - 111945Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SLOW AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING ACROSS NERN CO WITH INDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING DENVER CYCLONE. TCU BANDS HAVE ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL CO ROCKIES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITHIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. CONTINUED HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY UNFOLD INITIALLY N OF A COS TO LIC LINE...HOWEVER WITH TIME PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK TO THE S SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON THE PLATTEVILLE AND GRANADA PROFILERS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40990557 41020389 40590322 39550294 38410290 38000359 37840458 38620560 39660601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 18:18:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 13:18:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111817.i7BIHmV22225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111816 TXZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111816Z - 112045Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SCNTRL/ERN TX PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYAL OF MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. ACCORDINGLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EPISODIC PULSE SEVERE WILL BE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MEAGER AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS/. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30260008 30289914 30759826 31549782 32169691 33189615 32669546 31659475 31539460 30309526 29699655 29059853 29550013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 19:43:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 14:43:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408111942.i7BJgQV00364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111941 NMZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111941Z - 112115Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN RANGES OF N-CNTRL NM WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG /PER MODIFICATION OF 18Z ABQ SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS/. FARTHER E ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN NM...AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL SURGE...WHILE SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS STABILITY OVER THE SERN PART OF THE STATE. CONTINUED HEATING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD AID THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALONG/E OF MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR THE SEWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 36910684 36950417 32040408 32030655 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 20:20:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 15:20:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112019.i7BKJNV18777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112018 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-112145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ME / ERN NH / ERN MA / RI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112018Z - 112145Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MORE ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MA INTO SRN NH...TO THE E OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF WW 738. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIRMASS ACROSS RI AND CNTRL/ERN MA INTO ERN NH REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND NO CAP. THOUGH LOCAL VWPS DO INDICATE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING ARE BEING OBSERVED TO THE W IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AND GEOGRAPHICALLY SMALL AREAL EXTENT. ..MEAD.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX... 41037178 41897172 41957131 42517132 42987122 43627119 44297083 44336986 42857031 41176973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:02:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:02:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112301.i7BN1DV22773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112300 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR ERN PA/CT/WRN NH/NRN AND CNTRL NJ/VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738... VALID 112300Z - 120030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 738 UNTIL 00Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST 00Z EXPIRATION...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY. ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES TROUGH...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS RENEWED AND/OR INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO VT/NH IN WAKE OF EARLIER TSTMS. AIRMASS DOES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VAD DATA. THUS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS REMAINS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 738. OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NJ WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39717714 41137576 41977489 42597440 44337501 44947453 44957044 39667410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:28:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:28:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112328.i7BNS3V32050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112326 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND DE/MD/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739... VALID 112326Z - 120030Z WW 739 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. REMAINING SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FROM ERN MD INTO DE/SRN NJ ASSOCIATED WITH EWD TRANSITIONING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 37347842 38847664 39747632 39687415 37307581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:29:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:29:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112328.i7BNSgV32181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112327 COZ000-NMZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...741... VALID 112327Z - 120130Z BOUNDARY LAYER DID NOT HEAT SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AND STRONGER MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE NOT MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACHED THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED FROM THE RATON MESA SWD INTO ERN/CNTRL NM WHERE SEVERAL ONGOING TSTMS ARE LOCATED. DESPITE STRONGER HEATING...THE NM PLAINS ARE ALSO CAPPED AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33490578 35770580 37300530 40090532 39070333 35250359 33650364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:30:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:30:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112330.i7BNUGV32698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112326 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND DE/MD/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739... VALID 112326Z - 120030Z WW 739 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. REMAINING SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FROM ERN MD INTO DE/SRN NJ ASSOCIATED WITH EWD TRANSITIONING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 37347842 38847664 39747632 39687415 37307581  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 23:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 18:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408112330.i7BNUWV32757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112327 COZ000-NMZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...741... VALID 112327Z - 120130Z BOUNDARY LAYER DID NOT HEAT SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AND STRONGER MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE NOT MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACHED THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST HEATING OCCURRED FROM THE RATON MESA SWD INTO ERN/CNTRL NM WHERE SEVERAL ONGOING TSTMS ARE LOCATED. DESPITE STRONGER HEATING...THE NM PLAINS ARE ALSO CAPPED AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33490578 35770580 37300530 40090532 39070333 35250359 33650364  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 01:31:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 20:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408120131.i7C1VCV09561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120130 NMZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0830 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 741... VALID 120130Z - 120200Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH 741 WILL EXPIRE AT 02 UTC AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. STRONGEST TSTM CLUSTER WAS MOVING SWD INTO ERN SOCORRO AND NWRN LINCOLN COUNTIES AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZING VERTICAL MOTION. THE PLAINS REMAIN CAPPED AND GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING EVEN NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR VCNTY RUIDOSO. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 33680574 36270576 36160337 33310398 33180397 33230490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 08:11:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 03:11:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408120810.i7C8AlV32593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120809 GAZ000-ALZ000-121045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AL INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120809Z - 121045Z ISOLD SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL AND NWRN GA NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE WAS SITUATED GENERALLY WSW TO ENE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA EARLY TODAY. TSTMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDENT WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK TO SUPPORT STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...COMBINATION OF STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND 35-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS/STORM PERSISTENCE. GIVEN LOW LCL... HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE WAVES...AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WEAK INSTABILITY PROHIBITING THE FORMATION DISCRETE CELLS. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN... 33918349 33188494 32938681 33318732 33848711 34498438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 12:02:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 07:02:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121201.i7CC1hV05122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121200 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 121200Z - 121500Z CHANCES FOR ISOLD TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF SWRN GA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES ASHORE. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. EVX RADAR REVEALS THE RAGGED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE MAKING STEADY NWD PROGRESS TOWARD THE FL PNHDL EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 11Z/7AM EDT...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH BUOY 42039 /85NM SSW PAM/...WHERE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 50KT. LATEST RECON DATA ALSO INDICATED A BAND OF 35-40KT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF BONNIE AND THIS WIND FIELD IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT BONNIE WILL BE RAPIDLY ASSIMILATED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...BONNIE SHOULD ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST VWP DATA FROM EVX AND TLH SHOWED GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR RESULTED IN WEAK 0-1KM SRH AOB 100 M2/S2. SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER NEARS THE COAST AND BAND OF STRONGER FLOW WITHIN THE ERN/NERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM SRH OF AT LEAST 150 M2/S2 SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND LOW LCLS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE WIND FIELDS AND HELICITY WILL BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A LARGER REGION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF SRN GA LATER THIS MORNING AS SYSTEM BECOMES INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCELERATES INLAND. AS DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVER THIS LARGER AREA...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WELL AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30388631 31808505 31948398 31788178 29498194 29548505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 14:07:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 09:07:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121406.i7CE6MV19513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121402 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-121530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA / SC INTO SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121402Z - 121530Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN GA NEWD ACROSS SC. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY E OF ATL WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY BACKING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NERN GA AND MUCH OF SC. MODIFICATION OF CHARLESTON VWP WITH THESE CURRENT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS YIELDS 100-150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND 35-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 32338368 34988117 34527782 32008044 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 16:04:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 11:04:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121603.i7CG3kV10645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121600 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/ERN PA/NJ AND WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121600Z - 121730Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM ERN PA NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND WRN MA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING ALONG/E OF QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND WITHIN BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 40-50KTS AT 500MB/. EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP PROCEDURE FOR WATCH ISSUANCES AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39937512 40707626 42617501 44647325 44927219 44347107 42617168 41137294 40067376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 16:52:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 11:52:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121651.i7CGpwV01365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121650 FLZ000-GAZ000-121745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL/NRN PENINSULA INTO SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 742... VALID 121650Z - 121745Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF T.S. BONNIE TRACK. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 1635Z...TLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF BONNIE 45SSE OF TLH MOVING NEWD AT 20-25KTS. CURRENT TLH VWP INDICATES STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3KM AGL WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 215 AND 333 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS ALONG BONNIE TRACK HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG FROM THE FL BIG BEND/NRN PENINSULA INTO SERN GA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INVOF BONNIE...LARGER-SCALE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS SAME REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS IS MOIST/UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 742 WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE AT 1800Z. AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCES AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31908444 31898050 28888182 28948540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 17:35:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 12:35:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121735.i7CHZFV20047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121734 DEZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-121900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC NWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121734Z - 121900Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NC/VA WITH AN ATTENDANT 45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC. MOST INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY BEING REFLECTED BY MESOLOW WHICH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER N-CNTRL SC OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG SIMILAR TRACK TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. LOCALIZED PRESSURE FALLS/ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ALONG THIS LOW TRACK WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...GIVEN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE...THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY IS PERFORMING A SCHEDULED BACKUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS UNTIL 20Z TODAY. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35467994 38657958 38737568 35387618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 18:18:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 13:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121817.i7CIHiV07707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121816 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121816Z - 122015Z TSTMS MAY POSE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AT MIDDAY...WITH SFC RESPONSE EVIDENT IN MASS FIELDS ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. ACCORDINGLY LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE FROM FAR SRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX PANHANDLE AS ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE /HIGHEST ACROSS NW OK/ AND MINIMAL CINH. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES -- AS EVIDENT IN HAVILAND/LAMONT PROFILERS AND AREA VAD DATA -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37680001 37689851 37319738 36409686 35709659 34899674 34879885 35259997 36200108 37000137 37430121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 19:15:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 14:15:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408121914.i7CJEPV31407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121911 COZ000-NMZ000-122045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121911Z - 122045Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE CO/NM STATE LINE THAT EXTENDS ESEWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL OK. LOCALLY-BACKED WINDS INVOF THIS FEATURE HAVE MAINTAINED MID 50S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND W OF A TAD TO RTN LINE. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC HEATING...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING TCU/SMALL CBS EVOLVING ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN 35-45KT NWLY WINDS OBSERVED IN THE 5-7KM LAYER AT THE TUCUMCARI NM AND GRANADA CO PROFILER SITES...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. INITIALLY...MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. HOWEVER WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SELY FARTHER S ACROSS E-CNTRL NM...SUPPORTING A SWD EXTENSION OF MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS /AND INHERENTLY GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... 37660603 38540534 38640441 38230321 37070314 35320320 34520379 34560507 35140592 36130614  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 20:07:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 15:07:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122007.i7CK74V23211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122006 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA/CNTRL AND ERN NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743...745... VALID 122006Z - 122130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MESOLOW NEAR GSO WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM E OF GSO INTO S-CNTRL VA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURES ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THIS LOW CENTER SEWD IN AN ARC TO NEAR FAY AND THEN SWD TO ALONG SC COAST. REGIONAL VWPS AHEAD OF THIS INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH 21-22Z WILL EXIST AHEAD OF MESOLOW FROM N-CNTRL NC/S-CNTRL AND SERN VA EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NC...INCLUDING THE RALEIGH/DURHAM AREAS. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOWING STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 37658010 37647494 35297590 35347692 31907980 31898303 33188144 33228076 33578026 34297989 34837975 35437990 36218054 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 21:57:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 16:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122156.i7CLusV05012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122155 NCZ000-SCZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NC IN TORNADO WATCH 743 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743... VALID 122155Z - 122300Z TORNADO WATCH 743 EXPIRES AT 22Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST OFFICE IN WILMINGTON NC WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SERN NC FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS SERN NC AND WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE LINES HAVE VEERED WEST OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT REMAIN SSELY ALONG THE COAST FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH UP INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY AREA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISK OF TORNADOES...HOWEVER...SEEMS TO BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 745. GIVEN THAT THE TORNADO THREAT AREA IS SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED ACROSS SERN NC...ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED...BUT RATHER LOCALLY EXTENDED BY THE WFO ILM. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33437912 34937794 34847615 33417826 33407889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 22:04:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 17:04:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122203.i7CM3UV07220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122201 AZZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122201Z - 130030Z ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE INTO LOWER DESERTS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ONGOING TSTMS INVOF MOGOLLON RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ORGANIZE SUFFICIENT COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING TSTM CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A SCENARIO PER 18Z PHOENIX/TUCSON RAOBS PORTRAYAL OF 15-20 KTS OF ELY MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/ WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1200-1400 J/KG SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35461356 35341210 34681094 33871040 32751066 32571165 32931265 33731377 35331405 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 22:08:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 17:08:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122207.i7CM7VV08959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122206 NCZ000-SCZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NC IN TORNADO WATCH 743 CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 743... VALID 122206Z - 122300Z CORRECTED FOR WFO TORNADO WATCH 743 EXPIRES AT 22Z AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOREHEAD CITY NC WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SERN NC FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS SERN NC AND WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE LINES HAVE VEERED WEST OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT REMAIN SSELY ALONG THE COAST FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH UP INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY AREA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISK OF TORNADOES...HOWEVER...SEEMS TO BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 745. GIVEN THAT THE TORNADO THREAT AREA IS SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED ACROSS SERN NC...ANOTHER WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED...BUT RATHER LOCALLY EXTENDED BY THE WFO MHX. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33437912 34937794 34847615 33417826 33407889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 22:49:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 17:49:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122248.i7CMmpV22933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122247 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC AND SRN/ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 745... VALID 122247Z - 122345Z TORNADO WATCH 745 EXPIRES AT 00 UTC. IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REISSUED. VORT MAX WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...CENTERED OVER APPOMATTOX COUNTY VA...MOVING NEWD INTO CNTRL VA. BANDS OF TSTMS ARC SEWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA INTO NERN NC. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED AS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING. AS SUCH...TORNADO WATCH 745 WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REISSUED OR EXTENDED FARTHER NORTH. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 35407711 37487835 38597737 38227578 35827572 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 23:04:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 18:04:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122304.i7CN41V27626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122302 FLZ000-GAZ000-130030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL AND EXTREME SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 744... VALID 122302Z - 130030Z TORNADO WATCH 744 EXPIRES AT 0100 UTC AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REISSUED. CENTER OF REMNANT BONNIE WAS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SERN GA SOUTH OF THE KSAV AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH HAVE VEERED AND THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SLY...WITH THE STRONGEST 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM KJAX NEWD TO KSAV. POSSIBLE TORNADIC TSTM MOVING NEAR/SOUTH OF KSAV AREA WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE SERN GA BY 0000 UTC...ENDING THE TORNADO THREAT. FARTHER S...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF HRCN CHARLEY IS SPREADING NWD OVER SRN PARTS OF THE TORNADO WATCH AND LIMITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS HRCN CHARLEY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ..RACY.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27498183 31768205 31627947 27538026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 23:23:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 18:23:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408122322.i7CNMcV00861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122321 OKZ000-TXZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747... VALID 122321Z - 130115Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 747...NAMELY ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND SW/SCNTRL OK. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE SWD INTO N TX IS UNLIKELY. STORMS WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 750-1250 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ INVOF ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AMA TOWARD THE OKC METRO AREA. AMBIENT WIND PROFILES /40-45 KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/ WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS/MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION. FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF RED RIVER...PROGRESSIVELY DRIER/STABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS N TX SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. ..GUYER.. 08/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35930294 36779634 34009638 33299660 32789739 32599944 32590151 32650231 33210293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 00:28:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 19:28:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408130027.i7D0RYV21907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130026 COZ000-NMZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746... VALID 130026Z - 130200Z WW 746 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUING THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SSEWD INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN/I-25 FROM SCNTRL CO INTO NE NM...WITH FURTHER SWD PROGRESSION OF INTENSE SUPERCELL /LINCOLN CO/ AND OTHER SEVERE TSTMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 ACROSS ECNTRL NM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IN ACCORDANCE WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS/VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST E/SELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO/ERN NM...CONTRIBUTING TO 40 KTS OR GREATER OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NM...WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG RESIDE PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY HAZARD ACROSS WW 746...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS ERN NM...INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 746 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 37570638 37560309 33660307 32750319 32680420 32680531 32800607 33150649 33750622 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 01:02:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 20:02:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408130101.i7D11eV31829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130100 FLZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND LOWER FL KEYS INTO SRN FL AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130100Z - 130330Z TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FL KEYS AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES. THIS THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO SRN FL OVERNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CUBAN WEATHER RADARS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HRCN CHARLEY WAS JUST NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND MOVING NNW AT 17 MPH. KEY WEST RADAR SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS EMERGING INTO THE FL STRAITS...AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED 20-40NM SOUTH OF KEYW. THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE HRCN. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE TURNED ELY ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CENTER OF CHARLEY APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREATS WILL INCREASE. IF THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF STORMS CONTINUE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE FORT MEYERS/PORT CHARLOTTE AREAS BY 12 UTC. EWD EXTENT COULD VERY WELL INCLUDE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS WELL...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE SWRN COAST OF FL INCLUDING THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 23878220 27028223 26738101 25708049 24608060 23818119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 06:23:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:23:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408130622.i7D6MgV00915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130621 FLZ000-130815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748... VALID 130621Z - 130815Z AS HURRICANE CHARLIE APPROACHES SRN FL LATE T0NIGHT...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. KEY WEST FL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS HURRICANE CHARLIE NOW MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A HEAVY RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NWD INTO SCNTRL FL AND DRY AIR SPIRALING INTO THE HURRICANE FROM THE SE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN HEAVY RAINBAND ACTIVITY OVER FAR SRN FL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE EYE APPROACHES WRN FL LATE TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINBANDS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE EYE WILL ORGANIZE AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KEY WEST LATE TONIGHT SHOW STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES FROM THE SFC TO 2 KM. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE EYEWALL MOVES NWD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SW OF THE FL KEYS. ..BROYLES.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 25967969 24827979 24048014 23888141 24208237 25108265 25938262 26978236 27288151 27198055 26857985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 10:48:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 05:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131047.i7DAlYV18635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131046 FLZ000-131245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748... VALID 131046Z - 131245Z HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH WRN FL THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE TORNADO AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 12Z TO REPLACE WW 748. FLORIDA KEYS 88D RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS HURRICANE CHARLIE JUST WEST OF KEY WEST WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING NWWD ACROSS THE SWRN TIP OF SOUTH FL. DRY AIR ENTRAINING BEHIND THE MAIN RAINBAND WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ISOLATED SMALL SUPERCELLS ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAINBAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS AS THEY TRACK NWD INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FL THROUGH MIDDAY. ..BROYLES.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 28208176 27658021 26037994 24418022 24168171 24688298 26038338 27848318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 15:05:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 10:05:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131505.i7DF5AV25158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131504 FLZ000-131630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 749... VALID 131504Z - 131630Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 16-17Z APPEARS TO BE INTERIOR SRN PENINSULA W/S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTIVE BAND ATTENDANT TO HURRICANE CHARLEY HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE/MONROE COUNTIES NNWWD INTO COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES. SYNTHESIS OF LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES CURRENTLY 150-200 M2/S2. THIS SAME GENERAL CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 16-17Z. AS CHARLEY CONTINUES NWD THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING SHIFT OF STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO LOCATIONS W OF U.S. HIGHWAY 27 AND S OF INTERSTATE 4. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 28178273 28178037 24527976 24508200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 15:32:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 10:32:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131532.i7DFWTV06311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131531 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131531 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-131700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131531Z - 131700Z EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. REGION IS BEING UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER E-CNTRL NY IS RESULTING IN SSELY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT BONNIE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 40977387 41637390 42657326 42737251 42717135 42567051 41766987 40937044 40507282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 17:03:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 12:03:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131703.i7DH34V16616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131702 FLZ000-131830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 749... VALID 131702Z - 131830Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF WW 749 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM POLK COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR AND S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LIFTING NNWWD AT 30-40KTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THINNING OF HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES NOW 1500-2500 J/KG N OF THE LAKE. MOREOVER...AXIS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 200-250 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD OR NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PENINSULA AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND AND ANTICIPATED NWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX... 24547978 24558198 29308299 29328058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 18:23:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 13:23:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131822.i7DIMXV18250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131821 OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO SWD INTO ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131821Z - 131945Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY TO 20Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND ALSO NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE E /NEAR AND S OF LHX/. STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE E ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH. GIVEN 30-35KT NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /OBSERVED ON TUCUMCARI NM AND GRANADA CO PROFILERS/ ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST ANY ROTATING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37060592 38020566 38520420 38480308 37840259 36410309 34410373 33800442 33630499 33950592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 18:27:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 13:27:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408131827.i7DIR0V20321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131825 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA...SRN/WRN AZ AND FAR SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 131825Z - 132130Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT WITH THE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL WEAK VORT CENTERS MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/MOJAVE DESERT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MID 60S DEWPTS AS FAR NORTH AS NEEDLES AND THE COACHELLA VALLEY. REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SERN CA INTO FAR SWRN AZ. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA INTO FAR SRN NV AND WRN AZ. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 DEG TEMPERATURE DEWPT SPREADS AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE LESS MELTING WILL OCCUR...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z NKX AND DRA SOUNDINGS ALONG SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. WEAK WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE MTNS OF SRN CA AND SLY FLOW INTO THE MTNS OF WRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO AND ABOVE 1 INCH/HR GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32681481 32661646 33611681 34231737 35181677 36031580 36181468 33521165 32001165 32451334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 20:08:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 15:08:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408132008.i7DK86V32065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132006 FLZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 132006Z - 132130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH GREATEST THREAT OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA THROUGH 21-22Z. AS OF 1946Z...TAMPA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF CHARLEY APPROXIMATELY 25W OF FMY. WHILE INITIAL RAINBAND /COMPOSED AT TIMES OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS/ HAS LIFTED N OF A ORL TO MLB LINE...SUBSEQUENT SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SMALLER...MORE TRANSIENT BANDS SW OF TAMPA /NAMELY MANATEE...HARDY...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES/. HERE...INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE ERN PENINSULA /I.E. SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF CHARLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS THE WW AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THROUGH 21 OR 22Z WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH WRN EDGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29698299 29688033 25177969 25158228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 22:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 17:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408132215.i7DMF3V16546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132214 FLZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 132214Z - 132315Z TORNADOES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA. AT 600 PM...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED 40 WSW ABR MOVING NNEWD AT 20 KT. IF THIS TRACK AND SPEED CONTINUES...THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ORL AT 01Z. TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE INTENSE EYE WALL WHERE 1KM SRH IS NEAR 200 M2/S2. AN OUTER BAND OF INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES...EXTENDED FROM 50 S GNV TO 15 ESE ORL AND WAS MOVING NWWD AT 35-40 KT. ANOTHER STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 45 SW VRB TO 55 W PBI TO 45 SSE FMY. THIS BAND IS LOCATED WITHIN A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 100 M2/S2...BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THAN NEAR THE EYE WALL. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE CHARLEY...REFER TO LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ..IMY.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26238180 26908154 27318151 27478191 28108218 28678273 29368276 29288155 28748114 26938015 26248039 25518121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 22:32:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 17:32:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408132232.i7DMW5V22209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132230 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CENTRAL NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 132230Z - 140030Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF WW 751 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER ECENTRAL NM WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING ACROSS ERN NM AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL OVER SERN CO...AS BILLOWS NOTED IN CU FIELD INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CINH. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE REST OF WW 751 AROUND WW EXPIRATION TIME /02Z/ DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST OUTSIDE OF WW 751 OVER CENTRAL/SERN NM. OVER CENTRAL NM...CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL SURGE MOVES SEWD INTO THE MID/LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY. AND OVER SERN NM....ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL MOVE SSEWD AND ALSO MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. ..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34110334 34110572 38520512 38500255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 00:04:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 19:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140003.i7E03fV15511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140002 FLZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 140002Z - 140100Z TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA. NEAR 00Z....RADAR INDICATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED 30 NW AGR AND MOVING NNEWD AT 22 KT. IF THIS SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE...THE CENTER WOULD BE LOCATED CLOSE TO ORL AROUND 01Z AND ABOUT 15 SW DAB AT 03Z. TORNADOES REMAIN A STRONG POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE EYE WALL ...WHERE 1KM SRH HAS INCREASED TO 300 S2/M2. A BAND OF STORMS FROM 40 NW ORL TO NEAR DAB IS ALSO IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. THIS BAND IS MOVING NWWD AT 35 KT. BANDS OF CONVECTION ON THE E-SE OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION FROM FMY TO WEST OF VRB ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO IN THESE BANDS. ..IMY.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27828149 28438176 28908186 29278158 29178081 27758026 26748029 26098090 25888136 26518218 26788161 27388119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 00:38:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 19:38:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140038.i7E0cGV24769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140037 TXZ000-NMZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751... VALID 140037Z - 140200Z CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH GUADALUPE...TORRANCE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. GRADUALLY INCREASING CINH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 751 AND THUS A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER SERN NM. FARTHER NORTH OVER FAR NERN NM AND SERN CO PORTIONS OF WW 751...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WATCH EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 35380562 36610541 36480286 34050330 34080570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 01:52:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 20:52:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140152.i7E1qKV12669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140151 FLZ000-140245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 750... VALID 140151Z - 140245Z TORNADO THREAT LIMITED TO EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...MAINLY FROM MLB NWWD TO NEAR DAB. AT 0145Z...RADAR INDICATED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS JUST NORTHEAST OF ORL AND CONTINUED TO MOVE NNEWD AT 20 KT. THIS MOTION PLACES THE CENTER NEAR DAB AT 03Z AND OFFSHORE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS LOCATED IN THE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHERE 1 KM SRH IS NEAR 250 M2/S2. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE TORNADO WATCH WILL NOT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NWD...AND THE CURRENT WATCH SHOULD EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z OR POSSIBLY EVEN CANCELLED EARLY. ..IMY.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX... 29698033 28048007 27658032 27748091 28368161 28858189 29668153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 06:07:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 01:07:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140606.i7E66cV15138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140605 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN GA....FAR ERN SC AND ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140605Z - 140800Z AS HURRICANE CHARLIE APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE CHARLIE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL MOVING NNEWD AT 25 MPH. THE HEAVY RAINBANDS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC AND NC AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. VAD WIND PROFILES ALONG THE SRN COAST OF NC SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BELOW 1 KM. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 800 TO 1000 METERS AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WILL MAKE TORNADOES A THREAT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 09ZZ. ..BROYLES.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX... 32818069 34667940 35687844 35617775 35117704 34587733 34007775 32937843 31787928 30797996 30908073 31338139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 06:59:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 01:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408140659.i7E6xMV28926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140658 TXZ000-NMZ000-140900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140658Z - 140900Z AN ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR WITH NEW STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH A 850 MB JET OF ABOUT 30 KT WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY TRACK SWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING SSEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH HAS INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11 C AND THE STRONG SHEAR MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35930373 36210341 36340265 36180201 35610160 34930153 34540228 34570333 35250364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 12:39:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 07:39:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408141239.i7ECd5V25538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141237 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-141430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...ERN NC...SE VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752... VALID 141237Z - 141430Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS HURRICANE CHARLEY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF CHARLESTON WITH A NNEWD MOVEMENT AT ABOUT 35 MPH. RAINBANDS AHEAD OF THE CENTER ARE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS ERN SC AND ERN NC. THE MHX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 1700 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 500 METERS AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAIN. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS HURRICANE CHARLEY APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH SC AND WILMINGTON NC. AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SPREADS NWD... ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO NW INTO REMAINDER OF NERN NC...SERN VA AND PSBLY SERN MD. ..BROYLES/EVANS.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 36317518 34897598 32657783 32127912 32738040 33498046 35367933 37397758 37787678 37467564 36867507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 18:36:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 13:36:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408141835.i7EIZfV03836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141834 NCZ000-VAZ000-142030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753... VALID 141834Z - 142030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA...ALONG AND E OF THE TRACK OF CHARLEY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF CHARLEY INVOF OAJ /JACKSONVILLE NC/...MOVING NNEWD AT AROUND 3O TO 35 KT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES UPSTREAM OF CHARLEY ACROSS NERN NC AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PAMLICO / ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...WHERE UP TO 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE COMBINED WITH MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SMALL SUPERCELLS. ..GOSS.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34667822 35967724 36817603 35707550 35257556 34647650 34567716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 18:56:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 13:56:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408141855.i7EIthV10207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141854 OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141854Z - 142100Z ISOLATED SVR HAIL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF SERN CO/NCENTRAL AND NERN NM WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NE OVER ERN CO/FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW CENTERED JUST SE OF DEN AND ANOTHER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF LA JUNTA. A LEE TROUGH CONNECTED THESE LOWS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IN NCENTRAL NM. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD AID IN REMOVAL OF THE REMAINING CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH/LOW CENTERS...AS WELL AS PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENTRAL CO/NCENTRAL NM. STRONGEST MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CO/WRN NEB...WHERE 20-25 KTS CONTINUES TO BE SAMPLED BY AREA PROFILERS. BACKED 10 KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. FARTHER SOUTH OVER MOST OF ERN NM...MID LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN DECREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30 KTS. LACK OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AS EVIDENT BY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 500 MB FROM REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND THUS MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW CENTERS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 35890502 37380549 39790478 41610416 41600329 40340229 39130208 36200328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 20:18:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 15:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408142017.i7EKHpV01412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142016 NVZ000-CAZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 142016Z - 142245Z VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHAIN OF THE COASTAL MTNS FROM NERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY INTO ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE ERN/SRN SIDES OF OTHER MTNS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION OF SERN CA AND FAR SRN NV. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER VORT CENTER LOCATED OVER FAR SRN NV TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS. MODEST NELY MID LEVEL FLOW AND BACKED ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A VERY STRONG UPSLOPE PATTERN INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S UP TO 3000 FT...PW VALUES FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES PER REGIONAL 18Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS...WILL AID IN STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THESE MTNS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS IN SRN CA AND THE SRN SLOPES OF MTNS IN FAR SRN NV AND FAR ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...LOX... 32551638 33881691 34301803 34581800 34831752 36471567 36491472 33961489 33501622 32551601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 21:47:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 16:47:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408142146.i7ELkpV27827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142145 COZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 142145Z - 142315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER ECENTRAL CO SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH ELBERT INTO EL PASO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER ECENTRAL CO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THEY MOVE SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO SERN CO. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NORTH OF THE RATON RIDGE REGION OF SERN CO AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37340458 38070512 40310352 40450279 38910235 37550214 37020327 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 22:30:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 17:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408142230.i7EMUQV07578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142228 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NC AND SERN VA/COASTAL MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753... VALID 142228Z - 150000Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR MAINLY EXTREME ERN NC AND SERN VA. TORNADO WATCH MAY NOT BE EXTENDED NWD AS CHARLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT 22Z...RADAR INDICATES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER ABOUT 20 NNW ECG. THE MOTION THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN NNEWD NEAR 30 KT...WHICH PLACES THE CENTER NEAR ORF AT 00Z AND ABOUT 15 NE WAL AT 03Z. THE WINDS IN THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOST ERN BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR ORF TO 10 EAST ECG TO 25 W HSE. HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NNEWD...THE BAND ON THE EAST SIDE OF CHARLEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFF SHORE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER AS IT TRACKS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...BUT GIVEN THE SMALL AREA AND WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE...ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX... 35097599 35837597 36597669 38587494 37777418 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 00:54:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 19:54:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408150053.i7F0rhV10561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150052 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-150245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 150052Z - 150245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION OFFSETS BEGINNINGS OF DIURNAL COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NERN NM AND REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOSTLY NON SEVERE MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT. MODERATE NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH 20 KTS SAMPLED BY AMA VWP ALONG WITH INCREASING 20-25 KT 850 MB SELY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS STORM AND OTHERS NEARBY SHOULD CONGEAL WITH CONVECTION DRIVEN BY MODERATE OUTFLOW OVER NERN NM. HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34450359 35060463 35720426 36810315 36770154 36180089 34370215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 08:45:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 03:45:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408150844.i7F8iYV04553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150842 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-151045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150842Z - 151045Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HEAVY RAIN SPREADS INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS PRESENT JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS FAR ERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL MAKE ROTATING STORMS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAIN. VAD WIND PROFILES IN ERN MA SHOW VEERED WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 2 KM. THIS COMBINED WITH LCLS AROUND 600 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ..BROYLES.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 40407262 40617305 40937347 41317335 41867304 42537226 42807181 43107076 43016975 42186933 41536964 40467136 40307207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 18:35:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 13:35:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408151835.i7FIZ3V13497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151833 NCZ000-152030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NC COASTAL PLAIN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151833Z - 152030Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARALLEL TO AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND FROM THE NC COAST. THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ALONG AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG/. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT ILM TO EWN TO THE PAMLICO SOUND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO WATCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER FLOW. ..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... 34527743 34407783 34587815 34807799 35007769 35387701 35547642 35507598 35167587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 18:45:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 13:45:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408151844.i7FIidV16861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151843 SDZ000-NEZ000-152045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN...CENTRAL AND ERN SD AND FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151843Z - 152045Z ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN SD...SHOULD BE LATER IN THIS AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 20Z. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES BEGINNING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN SD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF PHP SWWD TO NEAR CDR NEB. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL SD TO THE WEST OF PIR ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND OVER ERN SD TO THE SOUTH OF ABR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EVIDENT ON RECENT REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PER EXPANDING STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER SWRN NEB...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42620399 43530211 44350056 45609851 45249769 44789718 42610016 41750288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 19:58:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 14:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408151957.i7FJvdV05915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151955 TXZ000-NMZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM EWD INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151955Z - 152230Z AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN NM EWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG DEEP LAYER CONFLUENT AXIS AND MODERATE-HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN TX. UPPER VORT CENTERS OVER SWRN NM AND SWRN TX WILL CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ERN NM. CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDES OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SERN CO AND A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DYING CONVECTION OVER OK WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING A DEEP LAYER OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE REGION FROM WCENTRAL INTO NWRN TX AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST MID LEVELS WITH PW/S FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THEREFORE...WITH EXPECTED EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION...FOCUSED E-W ORIENTED REGION OF DEEP CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33930614 33930799 33230844 32630793 32120676 31990590 32040450 32230286 32410203 32759965 33489924 33899951 34200052 34080142 34020415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 20:09:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 15:09:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408152008.i7FK8cV09509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152007 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152007Z - 152200Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM NCENTRAL INTO SCENTRAL CO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE MTNS INTO THE FRONT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF DEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOUR AND OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AREA OF FAR SERN WY. FLOW HAS BECOME PRIMARILY DUE ELY OVER THE FRONT RANGE ENHANCING UPSLOPE INTO THE REGION. 20 KT NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE LOWER WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF DEN AND OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORM MOTIONS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD BE SSWLY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37080488 37370517 38040538 38680557 39210582 40270552 41060513 41500447 41360411 40730368 39430388 37130412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 21:39:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 16:39:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408152139.i7FLdOV02840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152138 NVZ000-CAZ000-152345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA...PORTIONS OF SERN CA AND SWRN NV CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 152138Z - 152345Z UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ENHANCED MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JET RELATED CIRRUS STREAKS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD OVER THE SRN CENTRAL VALLEY/CENTRAL COAST REGION. UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MERCED HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENHANCEMENT OF FLOW. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SRN SIERRA NV SWD INTO SWRN NV AND SERN CA. AROUND 30 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ROTATION AND STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH DESERT REGION OF SWRN NV/SERN CA...WILL AID IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 IN/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 35211821 35841831 36861852 37211875 37541893 37911859 37871766 37241647 36681557 36271525 34871497 34241505 34001555 33951596 34411739 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 22:03:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 17:03:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408152203.i7FM3WV09035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152201 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-160000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754... VALID 152201Z - 160000Z CONTINUE WW 754. NEW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTH OF CHAMBERLAIN SD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ALLIANCE NEB. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 40 KT CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL HELP FOCUS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUST EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW...ACROSS THE CHAMBERLAIN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREA BY 16/00Z. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEAR/NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ..KERR.. 08/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 44159825 44569741 44899665 44899525 44349458 43779453 43469476 43109512 42709598 42679696 42519868 42460001 41970147 41640221 42150286 43200247 44100010 44089922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 00:16:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 19:16:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408160015.i7G0FgV09676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160014 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN NEB...ERN SD...CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 754... VALID 160014Z - 160215Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEYOND 02Z...BUT NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 754 TIL 02Z EXPIRATION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA... LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE FROM THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ABOVE STABLE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST... ...ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ONGOING STORMS NEAR ALLIANCE MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH WEAK NORTH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ..KERR.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 40830329 42070330 42520163 42960011 43819809 44849672 45599633 46329563 46469443 45789314 44519331 43419477 42949666 42399877 41880122 41650230 40730279 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 06:47:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 01:47:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408160646.i7G6kiV25846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160645 KSZ000-COZ000-160845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160645Z - 160845Z A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING SWD THROUGH FAR WRN KS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NW OK TO NWRN KS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS WRN KS ARE STILL BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS. SLY SFC WINDS AND SSWLY FLOW AT 850 MB IS RESULTING IN VEERED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT LINE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD AT 30 MPH INTO SW KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37180204 39490268 39560039 37419987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 17:41:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:41:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408161740.i7GHeuV09584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161739 NMZ000-AZZ000-161845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN AZ AND SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161739Z - 161845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN AZ INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SPREAD SEWD INTO SWRN NM. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AROUND TUS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A BAND OF 20-30 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SERN AZ AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS WNWWD TOWARD PHX IS DESTABILIZING AS WELL... SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WEAK MEAN FLOW AND HIGH PW VALUES /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED ON 14Z TUS SOUNDING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. IF RADAR/ SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...A PORTION OF THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK AND MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..PETERS.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31631197 32361266 33081344 33621334 34091263 33481137 33151078 33250915 33090777 32070749 31500771 31170880 31271109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 17:56:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:56:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408161756.i7GHuQV15709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161754 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-162000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL NV...FAR SERN CA...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161754Z - 162000Z THE FIRST FEW ATTEMPTS AT THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS OF FAR SRN NV...IN A REGION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN NYE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SERN CA...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT. RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z DRA SOUNDING INDICATE THAT ONLY 30-50 J/KG OF CINH REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THAT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN BY AROUND 19Z. BELT OF 20-25 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA GIVEN ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL NV. NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS A RESULT OF GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH CENTERED OVR NRN NV AND LOW TROUGH OVER SERN CA SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED OVER NRN/CENTRAL NV...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... 34871609 36061656 36751632 37181627 38001670 38911726 39891661 39861535 38661350 37401279 36051289 35091329 34741417 34681567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 20:55:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 15:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162055.i7GKtVV29946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162052 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND SCENTRAL KS/ FAR NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162052Z - 162315Z ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN OK PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MARGINAL. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER FAR SWRN KS AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER EAST...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE HAS MADE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SLOWER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DDC TO NEAR GBD/PTT AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 5-10 KTS COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36770393 36740386 36140389 35910292 36220084 36349932 36819721 37959694 38149774 38169951 37000235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 20:58:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 15:58:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162057.i7GKvnV30644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162055 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND SCENTRAL KS/ FAR NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162055Z - 162330Z ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN OK PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MARGINAL. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER FAR SWRN KS AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER EAST...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE HAS MADE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SLOWER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DDC TO NEAR GBD/PTT AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 5-10 KTS COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36770393 36740386 36140389 35910292 36220084 36349932 36819721 37959694 38149774 38169951 37000235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 21:05:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 16:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162105.i7GL5BV01252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162103 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162103Z - 162200Z AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT FSD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NERN TO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A WARM FRONT ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDED EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IA. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND SWWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AIR MASS AND WEAKENING CAP. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CURRENTLY INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED TO UNCAPPED AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CU/TCU PER VIS IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH...THUS SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42759772 44059771 44289579 43549489 42459471 41279582 41079709 41539874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 23:51:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 18:51:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408162350.i7GNofV27063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162349 IAZ000-170145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 755... VALID 162349Z - 170145Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. MOST INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN SOUTH OF MASON CITY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS MAXIMIZED ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...NOW NORTH OF SIOUX CITY. HOWEVER...MORE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE UPSTREAM TOWARD SURFACE LOW...SUPPORTED BY FORCED ASCENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST/CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 08/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD... 42879538 43149436 42869282 42249258 41739233 41399288 41269381 41579464 42049525 42529588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 00:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 19:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408170030.i7H0UxV06678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170029 AZZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 170029Z - 170230Z ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN/ERN PHOENIX METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR IN THIS AREA. SHORT DURATION AND EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL OCCUR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM TUS INDICATED A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER SRN AZ WITH PW/S AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY HAS AIDED IN A MORE WLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF WCENTRAL AZ WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE CENTRAL RIM WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON THE WRN RIM ENHANCING THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL IN THIS AREA. 10-15 KT BACKGROUND NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL SHOULD AID IN ACCELERATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SWD AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE PHX METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PHX METRO AREA AND WHEN THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION LINE MOVING SWD OUT OF THE RIM...SHOULD AID IN SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AND GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/SVR HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32961180 32981303 33461341 34411333 34551317 34181140 33811111 33451099 33211142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 01:56:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 20:56:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408170156.i7H1uKV31321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170154 ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 755... VALID 170154Z - 170400Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL 02Z. NEED FOR A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO STABILIZE SOUTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE DEVELOPING INVERSION LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 06Z...AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41819642 42659494 42529373 42239267 41719106 41099100 40719153 40759278 41279406 41449474 41749555 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 17:59:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 12:59:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408171759.i7HHxFL19109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171757 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-171900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171757Z - 171900Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19Z. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN WI TO FAR SERN IA TO NERN KS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN IA APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATTM...BUT CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE ALREADY WEAK CAP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CU HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER NERN IL /EAST OF RFD/. THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN IA WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY...WEAKENING INHIBITION...AND AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NERN IL TO NRN MO. INCREASING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846 39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 18:40:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 13:40:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408171840.i7HIeNL05371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171838 NMZ000-AZZ000-172115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 171838Z - 172115Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SERN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE MOVING SSEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SERN AZ AND INCREASING DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. RECENT VWP DATA FROM PHOENIX AND TUCSON SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL NWLY 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ HAVE BEEN SELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT. THE DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED ROTATION IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE PHX METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR TUS...WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPES EXISTS. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR PLATEAU REGION OF NERN AZ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT AS CONVECTION MOVE SEWD INTO THIS AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND ADJACENT LOWER MTNS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31521166 32331213 33311228 34811300 35491300 36961217 36840939 34500897 33470910 32390912 31350914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 20:19:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 15:19:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172019.i7HKJUL20051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172017 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN CA...FAR SRN NV AND NWRN AZ CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 172017Z - 172215Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SUPPORTED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SRN CA WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD UPSTREAM ON THE WEST SLOPES OF MTN RANGES IN FAR SRN NV...SERN CA AND THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM/GRAND CANYON AREA OF NWRN AZ. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN NWRN AZ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL VWP AND SFC DATA SUGGEST DEEP WLY FLOW INTO THE REGION ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SLC AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD FROM SWRN CA. MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW/S AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER NOAA PW SAT IMAGERY EXISTED OVER THE REGION. 18Z PHX SOUNDING FURTHER SUPPORTED THIS. MODERATE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON THE WRN FACING PORTIONS OF MTN RANGES IN THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND WWD BACKBUILDING WITH TIME ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS. ..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 33811647 34891669 36591533 36461388 35811292 34881296 34471324 34031451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 21:01:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 16:01:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172101.i7HL10L06503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172059 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO/FAR SERN IA/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN IL...AND INTO NRN IND/SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756... VALID 172059Z - 172200Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN WW 756 FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD WHICH MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI BY 22-23Z. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM WITHIN WW 756 INTO NWRN IND HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER SWRN LOWER MI WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW...WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40759231 42538765 42738452 41838445 40728593 40288774 38479230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:06:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:06:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172205.i7HM5pL04515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172204 MOZ000-KSZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL MO...CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172204Z - 180000Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT. PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER AREA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO/SALINA KS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH HAVE BEEN FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF ANTICYCLONIC HIGH-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE AT LEAST WEAK/INHIBITIVE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 3000 J/KG...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18/00-01Z. HOWEVER...BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...LACK OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN INHIBITION/WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALL SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38839810 38969703 39039577 39159486 39299405 39189340 38639302 38309387 38119490 37899634 37989758 38439850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:57:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172257.i7HMveL23833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172255 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172255Z - 180100Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W NEBRASKA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SE WY AND NE PANHANDLE...AND THESE STORMS ARE NOW PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS W NE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE WY...AND WILL BE MOVING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS...SUGGESTING STORM CLUSTER COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NOTE: GRAPHIC FOR THIS MCD MAY BE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LOCAL SOFTWARE PROBLEMS. ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846 39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:59:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:59:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172259.i7HMx2L24602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172255 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172255Z - 180100Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W NEBRASKA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SE WY AND NE PANHANDLE...AND THESE STORMS ARE NOW PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS W NE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE WY...AND WILL BE MOVING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS...SUGGESTING STORM CLUSTER COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NOTE: GRAPHIC FOR THIS MCD MAY BE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LOCAL SOFTWARE PROBLEMS. ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40389313 41409122 42139060 41978838 41108802 40278846 39328950 38939067 38849163 39599297  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 22:59:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 17:59:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172258.i7HMwtL24584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172257 ILZ000-MOZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MO INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756... VALID 172257Z - 180030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 756 TIL 18/00Z. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION. SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR/JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE INSTABILITY BECAME MAXIMIZED IN PEAK HEATING...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE THIS HAS BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO MISSOURI. THUS...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA OF CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS IN NARROW CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39689130 39899045 40219029 40458979 40668890 40758813 40318767 40008772 39338854 39038963 39069054 39169106 39299170 39389184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 23:00:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 18:00:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172300.i7HN04L25021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172257 ILZ000-MOZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MO INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756... VALID 172257Z - 180030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 756 TIL 18/00Z. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH MAY BE NEEDED A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION. SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR/JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE INSTABILITY BECAME MAXIMIZED IN PEAK HEATING...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE THIS HAS BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO MISSOURI. THUS...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA OF CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS IN NARROW CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. ..KERR.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39689130 39899045 40219029 40458979 40668890 40758813 40318767 40008772 39338854 39038963 39069054 39169106 39299170 39389184  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 23:18:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 18:18:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408172318.i7HNICL31013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172316 NEZ000-SDZ000-180115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172316Z - 180115Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W NEBRASKA. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SE WY AND NE PANHANDLE...AND THESE STORMS ARE NOW PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS W NE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE WY...AND WILL BE MOVING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KTS...SUGGESTING STORM CLUSTER COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42990332 42450361 41660361 41190348 40960151 41099971 42669941 43030128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 17:26:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:26:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408181726.i7IHQ3L07806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181724 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN PA/NJ SWWD INTO ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181724Z - 181900Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PARTS OF ERN MD/DE SWWD INTO ERN VA WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH /EXTENDING FROM E OF ABE TO NEAR CHO/...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER... GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 08/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 36657883 37807869 39377710 40757543 41227471 41087385 40537364 39237425 37187544 36757621 36557669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 17:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408181731.i7IHV6L10613@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181727 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/MUCH OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181727Z - 181830Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR SERN MN...MUCH OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ARROW HEAD REGION OF MN SSWWD TO ALONG THE WRN WI/EAST CENTRAL MN BORDER TO FAR SERN SD. LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES BY MID AFTERNOON AROUND 1000 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY DURING THE LAST HOUR SHOWED A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION 40-60 NM AHEAD OF THE APPARENT SURFACE FRONT...AND LOCATED FROM 30 N IWD TO 20 N EAU AT 17Z. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY... STRONG KINEMATICS WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 08/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46949045 47328990 47408792 46918564 44788673 43178766 42978942 43129158 43609355 44379273  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 00:28:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 19:28:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408190028.i7J0SRL12219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190026 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-190230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / NERN KS / NRN MO / SRN IA / CENTRAL IL / SRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760...761... VALID 190026Z - 190230Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 760 AND 761. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS MOVING EWD / ESEWD ACROSS WW 760 AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ESEWD ACROSS PARTS WW 761 IN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW 760...AND STORMS SHOULD DIURNALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS FROM SERN IA / NERN MO SEWD INTO SRN IN...WHERE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FROM THE WSW INTO THIS REGION...EXPECT BOTH PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT AND ORIENTATION OF INSTABILITY AXIS TO RESULT IN ESELY MCS MOTION ACROSS WW 761. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 41359127 41278916 39968541 38298530 39749111 39719231 38939780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 02:42:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 21:42:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408190242.i7J2g3L25341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190240 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA / NERN MO / CENTRAL IL / SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760...761... VALID 190240Z - 190415Z MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 760 / WRN PORTIONS OF WW 761...BUT WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 19/04Z. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS 36 TO 50 KT MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF MCS -- A BOWING SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED MESOLOW MOVING ACROSS PEORIA AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WOODFORD AND MCLEAN COUNTIES IN IL. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME. THEREFORE...NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 39899351 40439272 40669025 40848957 40228717 39278866 39849136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 17:42:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:42:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191742.i7JHglL15949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191741 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN OH/SWRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191741Z - 191845Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NWRN PA SWWD ACROSS NRN OH TO CENTRAL IND/IL...WHILE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDED GENERALLY E-W FROM SWRN PA TO CENTRAL OH. THE LATTER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATED CU FIELD DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CAP HAS WEAKENED. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/. STRONG WLY WINDS /40+ KT AOA 1.5-2 KM/ WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS. STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG WLY WINDS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40098476 40348386 40638179 40808051 40687894 39467949 39348185 39258430 39388477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 17:53:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:53:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191753.i7JHr1L20380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191751 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX...WRN LA...SWRN AR CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL VALID 191751Z - 192045Z THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF E TX AND ADJOINING PORTIONS AR/LA...MAINLY WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 50 NM OF A LINE FROM HOU...TXK...HOT. PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES AROUND 3 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY IN SOME LOCALES AND RATES COMMONLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS. A FEW CELLS MAY ROTATE OVER PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE TX WITH MARGINAL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL OR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS...BUT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THREAT SUGGESTS WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING OVER MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA...E AND SE OF EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION NEAR SPS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAKENING CAP...SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW FORMING OVER UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND EXPECTED TO EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX AREA. EXPECT MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG...SUPPORTED BY 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...I.E. 1.75-2 INCH PW AND RH AOA 50 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE. SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS ENTIRE SWATH...BUT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL MCS FROM LFK AREA NWD THROUGH GGG AREA TO NEAR TXK. IN LATTER CORRIDOR EXPECT NUMEROUS MERGING/TRAINING CELLS. MEANWHILE...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS NEAR SRN/SERN EDGE OF MCS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION OVER E-CENTRAL TX WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG...INCREASING WWD INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX. LCLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1500 M AGL INTO PEAK HEATING/MIXING. ANOTHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION MAY BE NEEDED NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR LATTER AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30949333 30359373 29919428 29479547 29599610 30719631 31779633 32099564 32529528 33749442 34879378 34809309 33669261 31389321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 19:13:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 14:13:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191913.i7JJDIL27107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191911 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY/WRN MA/VT/WRN-NRN NH/WRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191911Z - 192045Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NY AND ACROSS WRN MA/VT TO WRN-NRN NH/WRN ME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD ACROSS WRN NY TO NWRN PA. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA VADS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... 45957023 45117143 44987266 43757412 43067512 42217619 41697474 41757358 43677158 45876932 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 19:45:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 14:45:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408191945.i7JJj6L10337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191942 TXZ000-192215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191942Z - 192215Z TSTMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z OVER NRN HILL COUNTRY AND EWD ACROSS ACT AREA. ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EVIDENT GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED BOUNDARY/STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS. RESIDUAL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX AND NERN TX /SWRN AR. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THAT COMPLEX EXTENDING SWWD TO AROUND 20 SE CRS...THEN WWD ACROSS NRN MCLENNAN COUNTY TO COKE COUNTY. AIR MASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER NERN TX BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY DEEP/FRESH COLD POOL GENERATION BY MCS...HOWEVER INSOLATION WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY W OF I-45 AND AWAY FROM CONVECTION. BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED N PAST ACT AND SHOULD SHIFT TO NEAR A CRS...BWD...20 N SJT LINE BY 21Z. SEPARATE/WEAKER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- GENERATED BY INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SE TX -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM AROUND FREESTONE COUNTY SSEWD ALONG I-45...INTERSECTING FIRST BOUNDARY SSE OF CRS AND PROVIDING EFFECTIVE ERN BOUND FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF ACT AND ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS. VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3 KM SRH WILL REACH 150-300 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 100-250 J/KG DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON -- MAXIMIZED IN BWD-ACT CORRIDOR. THIS ALSO WILL CORRESPOND TO NRN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. NARROW ZONE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 30-35 KT...35-45 J/KG BRN SHEAR...MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND CINH AOB 25 J/KG. GIVEN VERY RICH LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OVER REGION...EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED AS WELL....WITH RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... 32009925 32219793 32259670 32029621 31719605 31459619 31479716 31619949 31750004 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 20:48:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 15:48:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192048.i7JKm3L07288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192046 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ORE...EXTREME SERN WA...SWRN ID...NERN NV...EXTREME NWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192046Z - 192315Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MOVE GENERALLY SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF MARGINAL AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF SEVERE THREAT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA -- ONE OVER NWRN ORE AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN MT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND...IN COMBINATION WITH INSOLATION...CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM ABOVE WELL-MIXED...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN ABOUT 50-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM ALW...BKE...50 SW BOI...ENV. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY RANGE FROM MID 40S TO UPPER 50S F...WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS OF BELOW 20 KT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS TO NEAR-SFC KINEMATIC FIELDS MAY AUGMENT BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR... 40681463 41181607 41921753 42271963 43431841 44512039 45411858 45591820 45891792 46291756 46351714 46141663 45541633 45091626 44201667 43361687 42751593 42161440 41951354 41661338 41261343 40911380 40701429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 21:04:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:04:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192104.i7JL4XL15865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192102 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IND/MUCH OF CENTRAL OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763... VALID 192102Z - 192230Z ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OH TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OH TO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL PA. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ESEWD OF WW 762 ACROSS SERN PA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST OF WW 762. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS HAD LESS MIXING TIME...THAN OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE WEST. AIR MASS OVER SERN PA IS SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH WEAKER WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...IF THIS AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40328549 40848194 40797716 40247639 39597687 39727941 39598204 39278537 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 21:06:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:06:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192106.i7JL6oL16830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192046 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ORE...EXTREME SERN WA...SWRN ID...NERN NV...EXTREME NWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192046Z - 192315Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MOVE GENERALLY SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF MARGINAL AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF SEVERE THREAT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA -- ONE OVER NWRN ORE AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN MT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND...IN COMBINATION WITH INSOLATION...CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM ABOVE WELL-MIXED...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN ABOUT 50-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM ALW...BKE...50 SW BOI...ENV. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY RANGE FROM MID 40S TO UPPER 50S F...WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS OF BELOW 20 KT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS TO NEAR-SFC KINEMATIC FIELDS MAY AUGMENT BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR... 40681463 41181607 41921753 42271963 43431841 44512039 45411858 45591820 45891792 46291756 46351714 46141663 45541633 45091626 44201667 43361687 42751593 42161440 41951354 41661338 41261343 40911380 40701429  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 21:23:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:23:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192123.i7JLN2L24437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192102 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IND/MUCH OF CENTRAL OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763... VALID 192102Z - 192230Z ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OH TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA. REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OH TO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL PA. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ESEWD OF WW 762 ACROSS SERN PA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST OF WW 762. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS HAD LESS MIXING TIME...THAN OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE WEST. AIR MASS OVER SERN PA IS SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH WEAKER WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...IF THIS AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..PETERS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40328549 40848194 40797716 40247639 39597687 39727941 39598204 39278537  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 22:21:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 17:21:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192221.i7JMLrL18871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192220 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192220Z - 200015Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH NW TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND MODEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TCC PROFILER INDICATING SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG SHEAR PROFILE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED...BUT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..LEVIT.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32710023 33459915 34139935 34790000 34020165 33580267 33180321 32520314 32460143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 22:51:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 17:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192251.i7JMptL29915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192250 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192250Z - 200015Z STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN MO AND INTO SRN IL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN IL ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. MODEST /AROUND 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUPPORTING SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / LONGEVITY...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS BEFORE DIURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES NEWD OUT OF NERN OK AND 30 TO 35 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS / SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38129115 38738896 38588709 38118700 37408838 36939060 37089173 37499173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 23:28:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 18:28:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408192328.i7JNSWL10931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192326 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN IND / CENTRAL OH / SWRN AND S CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 762...763... VALID 192326Z - 200030Z STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WW 762 AND 763 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 20/00Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39798490 40618112 40537875 40067839 39488456 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 00:29:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 19:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408200029.i7K0TnL32152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200028 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA / NRN DE / MD / NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 764... VALID 200028Z - 200200Z STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. EVENING IAD RAOB INDICATES FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR...BUT CAP IS INDICATED...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ONGOING STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39937726 39747574 38577653 38307808 38477867 39167812 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 06:31:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 01:31:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408200631.i7K6VNL20864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200627 TXZ000-200800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200627Z - 200800Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LINE MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE LBB AREA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM WICHITA FALLS TX EXTENDING WSWWD TO HOBBS NM. A LINE OF STORMS IS NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL STILL EXIST WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ALSO...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CELLS MOVE OFF THE CAPROCK INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33240287 34110261 34640167 34120011 33209991 32180077 32530225 33240291  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 15:58:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 10:58:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408201559.i7KFxXL08767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201556 NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-201800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...PORTIONS SERN NY...NWRN CT...SRN VT/NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201556Z - 201800Z TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF HUDSON VALLEY IN NERN PA...NY...MA AND SRN VT. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD INTENSIFY...MOVING EWD OVER SERN NY AND PORTIONS WRN NEW ENGLAND....WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SUBSEQUENTLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA WHERE CAP IS WEAK BUT DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE LONGER. THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN MAINE WSWWD ACROSS SRN VT/NH TO ALB AREA...THEN ROUGHLY ORIENTED ALONG E-W PORTION OF NY/PA BORDER. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY S OF FRONT...PARTICULARLY FROM NERN PA EWD WHERE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS HAS ENABLED STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING...AMIDST WEAK CAPPING. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...WITH SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 80S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BECAUSE OF SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR...RESULTING IN HODOGRAPHS LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS. FORMATION OF SMALL BOWS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT 0-3 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...LATTER BEING STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT AND PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER JET. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42007828 42397641 43087430 43537254 43487155 43057107 42707137 42287198 41827276 41557356 41357469 40967676 40827798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 17:41:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 12:41:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408201741.i7KHfiL28491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201739 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201739Z - 201945Z THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION SFC-BASED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FROM NERN MS ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN AL AND SRN-MIDDLE TN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYS WSWWD ACROSS SRN TN TO ROUGHLY 20 SE MKL. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. REGION IS LOCATED UNDER ENHANCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW -- I.E. 30-40 KT PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. THIS ALONG WITH MORE SLY COMPONENT TO SFC FLOW NEAR BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTES TO 100-200 J/KG SRH IN LOWEST 1 KM LAYER...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND ON INTERPOLATIONS BETWEEN VWPS AT BNA AND IN NRN AL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS AT 25-35 KT BUT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE THREAT ON SMALL SCALES. ALSO...LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS MAY FORM WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33458963 35138850 35868808 36048667 35758511 35418532 34998567 34138650 33538792 33338854 33258933 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 19:43:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 14:43:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408201943.i7KJhfL17273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201941 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 765...766... VALID 201941Z - 202145Z SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED NEAR A LINE FROM CON...ALB...ELM...FKL. SUPERCELLS OVER NRN MA HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER PAST HOUR OR TWO. TRAILING STORM MOVING FROM WORCESTER COUNTY INTO MIDDLESEX COUNTY MAY INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW FROM ERN STORM NEAR COAST. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT WSWWD ACROSS WRN MA...SERN NY...NY/PA BORDER REGION AND CENTRAL/NERN PA. BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS WW AREAS...BECAUSE OF MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS NRN/WRN PA...STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 766 ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM DE RIVER VALLEY EWD. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES BY 21Z WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL PA TO 2500 J/KG IN CENTRAL/ERN MA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER AND 150-200 J/KG SRH. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 43617064 41837058 41167443 42897443 42227446 40657446 40097875 41667876 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:04:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:04:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202004.i7KK44L26554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202002 TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202002Z - 202230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 1930Z...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM MAF TO 10N JCT TO 15N AUS TO 35 W LFK. IT APPEARS THAT A MESO LOW EXISTS ALONG THE WEST END OF THE OUTFLOW CENTERED OVER SERN MIDLAND COUNTY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE...IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/. CIN HAS ALSO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SJT WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND LEAVES SOME DOUBT AS TO TIMING OF INITIATION...THOUGH 18Z RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST CENTRAL TX DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. LARGE CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ENHANCED SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31760195 31620120 31560034 31419944 31199871 31039780 31259678 31469575 31379512 30959520 30369552 30139600 29989657 29759740 29729811 29929927 30079974 30560076 31020144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:05:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:05:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202005.i7KK5EL27312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...WRN/NRN MD...EXTREME SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202230Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z WITH RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME QUITE BUOYANT AMIDST STRONG HEATING AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES COMMONLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N ACROSS WWS 765/766 BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS COMPENSATING SOMEWHAT FOR WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS TO KEEP SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP COLD POOLS WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG RESULTANT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40097876 40477587 39817617 39147653 38387731 37787878 37828066 38048098 38648129 39228119 39817971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:06:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:06:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202006.i7KK6WL27806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202002 TXZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202002Z - 202230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 1930Z...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM MAF TO 10N JCT TO 15N AUS TO 35 W LFK. IT APPEARS THAT A MESO LOW EXISTS ALONG THE WEST END OF THE OUTFLOW CENTERED OVER SERN MIDLAND COUNTY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN CU FIELD ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE...IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/. CIN HAS ALSO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SJT WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ABSENCE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND LEAVES SOME DOUBT AS TO TIMING OF INITIATION...THOUGH 18Z RUC AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST CENTRAL TX DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. LARGE CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ENHANCED SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 31760195 31620120 31560034 31419944 31199871 31039780 31259678 31469575 31379512 30959520 30369552 30139600 29989657 29759740 29729811 29929927 30079974 30560076 31020144  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:06:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:06:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202006.i7KK6lL27929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...WRN/NRN MD...EXTREME SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202230Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z WITH RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME QUITE BUOYANT AMIDST STRONG HEATING AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES COMMONLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N ACROSS WWS 765/766 BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS COMPENSATING SOMEWHAT FOR WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS TO KEEP SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP COLD POOLS WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG RESULTANT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40097876 40477587 39817617 39147653 38387731 37787878 37828066 38048098 38648129 39228119 39817971  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 20:38:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 15:38:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202037.i7KKbxL09207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202035 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN...PORTIONS ERN TN AND NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767... VALID 202035Z - 202200Z LINE OF TSTMS IS MOVING EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/NRN AL...FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY AL TO GREENE COUNTY MS. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL/SWRN AL...PRIND GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVER NRN PORTION WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SRN MIDDLE TN SHOULD MOVE EWD 20-25 KT AS WELL TOWARD CHA AREA WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEVERE ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY FORMING AHEAD OF LINE AND MOVING ACROSS NERN AL TOWARD NWRN GA. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE PORTION OF WW REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 30-35 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH 150-200 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...DEEP AND RICH MOIST LAYER IN LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING YIELDS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN FCST SOUNDINGS. WITH SIMILARLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS ERN TN AND NWRN GA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E OF PRESENT WW. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE...SINCE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY DRIVE PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS INTO GA AND SERN TN BEFORE DISSIPATION. ..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 35798554 36128503 36248435 35868403 35288423 34288454 33588522 33318583 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 22:50:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 17:50:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202250.i7KMonL31183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202248 TNZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN...AND FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767...770... VALID 202248Z - 202345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NERN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN...AND FAR WRN NC. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CONTINUE WW 767 AND 770. AT 2240Z...TWO CONVECTIVE LINES CONTINUE EWD AT 25-30KT. LEADING LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH ATL METRO REGION THROUGH 2330Z WITH NRN EXTENT AFFECTING ERN TN/FAR WRN NC DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TRAILING LINE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD POOL AND IS PRESENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR NWRN GA SWWD THROUGH E-CENTRAL AL. INTERACTION OF THIS LINE WITH CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33328675 34548608 35078563 35738504 36188451 36188312 34078392 33008430 33118536 33298578 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 23:16:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 18:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202317.i7KNH2L08047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202315 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA / NRN WV AND THE WV PANHANDLE / WRN MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 768... VALID 202315Z - 210045Z STRONG / LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO WW 771...AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKENING TREND NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGEST THAT WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 21/01Z EXPIRATION. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS WW EXIST IN A BROKEN N-S LINE FROM ELK COUNTY PA SWD INTO MINERAL COUNTY WV...THOUGH A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER WEAKENING OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 21/00Z. WITH STORMS WEAKENING / MOVING EWD INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 771...WATCH 770 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..GOSS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39277946 40257951 41107930 41047846 39217876 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 23:26:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 18:26:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408202326.i7KNQpL11284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202325 TXZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 202325Z - 210100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769 CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL AND SWRN TX. A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...WITH RATES 2-3"/HR ...IS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z ACROSS TOM GREEN...CONCHO...MENARD...AND NERN SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. AT 2315Z...SMALL BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG STATIONARY LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF SJT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS FOR AT LEAST 1-2 ADDITIONAL HOURS. SJT VAD INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KT JUST NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 IN WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SJT AND MAF DURING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING CIN AND WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS BEGINS TO COOL THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30070259 32220258 31299891 29129891 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 00:23:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 19:23:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408210023.i7L0NfL29361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210022 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / SERN NY / NRN NM / CT / RI / MA / SRN NH / SRN VT / SRN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 771... VALID 210022Z - 210145Z LOCAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ATTM. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41447782 42057735 43497067 42277069 41267289 39897783 40387818 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 02:44:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 21:44:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408210244.i7L2imL06350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210242 LAZ000-TXZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX EWD INTO NRN LA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769... VALID 210242Z - 210345Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD THROUGH LAMPASAS AND BURNET COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 769...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO LAMPASAS COUNTY HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF BOWING OUT. GUST FRONT SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION INDICATES THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THIS LINE SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO WEAKEN. CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING AND DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AND WW 769 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. FARTHER EAST...FROM ECENTRAL TX INTO WCENTRAL LA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29519899 29920059 31650081 31379899 31669773 32169619 32439397 32169275 31129240 30569573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 15:29:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 10:29:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211529.i7LFTmL13762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211527 FLZ000-GAZ000-211800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211527Z - 211800Z AIR MASS ACROSS NRN FL WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS TO SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM NASSAU/DUVAL/ST JOHNS COUNTIES SWWD TOWARD LEVY/HERNANDO/CITRUS COUNTIES. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LINE OF TSTMS -- NON-SEVERE AS OF 15Z -- WAS EVIDENT FROM SRN WARE/CHARLTON COUNTIES GA IN OKEFENOKEE SWAMP...SWWD ACROSS CEDAR KEY AREA OF FL. THIS CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE LINE WILL MOVE EWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NRN FL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z INTO SFC AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S F DEW POINTS AND TEMPS APCHG 90 F...AND MAY INTENSIFY. MEANWHILE...AS INSOLATION STEEPENS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER PENINSULA...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AND INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR BOTH COASTS. BECAUSE OF WEAK WLY COMPONENT OVER MOST OF N FL...ERN SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO COAST WHILE WRN ONE PENETRATES FARTHER INLAND. SEASONALLY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPS -- I.E., -9 TO -10 DEG C IN 12Z 500 MB THERMAL TROUGH -- CONTRIBUTE FURTHER TO BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 J/KG DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS SEQUENCE... 1. CONVERGENCE LINE WITH W COAST SEA BREEZE NEXT 1-3 HOURS 2. NRN END OF CONVERGENCE LINE WITH E COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS DUVAL/NASSAU/ST JOHNS COUNTIES BEGINNING 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME 3. INLAND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS THEREAFTER. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29088298 30138239 30758187 30648153 30418143 30048133 29708137 29238162 28928182 28628203 28428240 28578250 28918265 29038282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 15:50:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 10:50:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211550.i7LFoLL21623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211548 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND LONG ISLAND...CT...RI...SRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211548Z - 211745Z BAND OF TSTMS -- EXTENDING AT 1530Z FROM ULSTER COUNTY NY SWWD ACROSS YORK COUNTY PA -- SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR PSBL WW. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THINNESS AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO 78-85 DEG F RANGE THROUGH 18Z. AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST IN INFLOW SECTOR WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY LOW 70S F...PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH RH EXTENDING WELL PAST 850 MB. THIS SUPPORTS MLCAPES ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED OKX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION OF DAMAGING BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS IN CONVECTIVE LINE. OBSERVED VWP WINDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT FLOW IN 850-700 MB LAYER...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 50 KT IN 600-500 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39867687 41037518 41727411 41997325 42237183 42227106 42077083 41547091 41367126 41047190 40597326 40247378 39917408 39847542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 17:26:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 12:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211726.i7LHQBL24130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211724 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211724Z - 211930Z GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AND SERN VA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING FROM W-E AND BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 1630Z VIS IMAGERY INDICATES 50-60 NM WIDE MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM LOWER POTOMAC BASIN SWWD ALONG E EDGE OF PIEDMONT IN NC. STRONGEST HEATING IS OCCURRING E OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE CONFLUENCE LINE IN SFC WINDS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE AREAS. TEMPS IN UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S F...COMBINED WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE APCHG 3000 J/KG. 30-35 KT WINDS IN 900-700 MB LAYER CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NC/SERN VA WHERE STRENGTHING MIDLEVEL FLOW ALSO WILL AID DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MAIN WEAKNESS IS WITH CONVERGENCE AMIDST BROAD FETCH OF SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP IS NEARLY GONE...SO STORMS MAY INITIATE ON SUBTLE FOCI SUCH AS CONFLUENCE LINE...BAY/SEA BREEZES OR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG SERN NC SE BREEZE...AND THIS TREND MAY EXTEND NWD WITH TIME. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33877854 34247912 34727929 35097869 35747780 36477700 37597714 37917644 37847542 36967562 35887551 35237615 34687687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 18:22:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 13:22:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211822.i7LIMnL09485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211820 VAZ000-NCZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL VA...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211820Z - 212015Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...FROM DC/BWI AREA SWWD PAST LYH AND INTO MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF NC. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER INTO VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER VA/NC PIEDMONT...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST N OF BWI SWWD TO NERN CORNER OF TN...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM AROUND LYH SSWWD ACROSS CLT AREA. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING BETWEEN FRONT AND TROUGH OVER NC AS WELL AS INVOF FRONT. AIR MASS OVER PIEDMONT IS WARMING AGAIN AFTER PASSAGE OF CLOUD BAND MENTIONED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070. WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 70S F HELPING TO COUNTERACT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY 20Z. THIS AREA IS ON ERN EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- 30-35 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...BASED ON VWP AND RUC FCST PROFILES. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS FARTHER E BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY VEERED SFC FLOW AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SPEEDS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN IN WW 773 DUE TO SMALLER 0-1 KM SHEARS AND WEAKER BUOYANCY...BUT SOME DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL STILL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN VA. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 37237685 36507746 35867818 35497911 35288121 35758174 37507916 38407779 38127669 37757640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 19:10:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 14:10:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408211910.i7LJAAL25131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211909 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211908 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...CT...RI...PORTIONS SERN PA...SERN NY...MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 772... VALID 211908Z - 212115Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW BOW/LEWP FEATURES WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND -- WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE GUST THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD 25-30 KT ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREA. FOREGOING AIR MASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND IS CHARACTERIZED BY 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT DECREASED FROM EARLIER BECAUSE OF ANVIL SHADOWING AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. THIS STILL IS SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY FORWARD-PROPAGATING ACROSS REMAINDER SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN DEEP LAYER OF 30-50 KT/UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW. SEVERE THREAT WILL END BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND POSTFRONTAL CAA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE NJ AND SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING THERE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... 39737369 39717594 42717218 42726983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 20:37:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 15:37:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408212037.i7LKbiL21429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212035 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-212200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 773... VALID 212035Z - 212200Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES INITIATED ON SEA BREEZE BUT WILL BE PROPAGATING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE LIFT IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. 70 KT GUST REPORTED EARLIER IN DARE COUNTY NC. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED THERMAL/BUOYANCY AXIS W OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS VA/NC...ROUGHLY FROM 20 SE RIC TO SSC...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS 88-90 F AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OR DECEASE JUST SLIGHTLY IN THIS CORRIDOR OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DIABATIC HEATING MOVES PAST PEAK...AND WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION OVER PIEDMONT MOVING TOWARD WRN PORTION WW. ..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... 39737369 39717594 42717218 42726983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 21:08:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 16:08:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408212108.i7LL8fL31423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212106 SDZ000-NDZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0406 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212106Z - 212230Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM WRN BURLEIGH COUNTY SWWD INTO CNTRL GRANT COUNTY MOVING E AT 35-40KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 300-400 J/KG. RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45870200 47110110 47580015 47549878 46939854 45929841 44989870 44769991 44940129 45300193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 21:23:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 16:23:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408212123.i7LLNvL03704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212122 TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN CO...ERN NM...AND THE DAVIS MTNS AREA OF TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212122Z - 212315Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SWRN TX. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT 21Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE FROM 20N COS SWD TO NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. OTHER CELLS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM SWD TO 50SE GDP. STORM MOTIONS WERE GENERALLY SE AT 10-15 KT. SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS ERN NM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS SERN CO ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS CO /AROUND 30KT/...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED LESS ORGANIZATION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/SWRN TX...HOWEVER...CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SLOW EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NM MAY ENHANCE MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36840513 38360557 39210548 39660493 39720380 39400316 38050300 36520302 33910306 32590313 31780305 31190302 31010354 31080417 31520449 32620486 34330508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 17:14:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 12:14:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408221714.i7MHEJL03150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221711 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221711Z - 221915Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL MS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25KT INTO W-CENTRAL AL THROUGH 1830Z. DIURNAL HEATING HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL MS AT 17Z. THIS MCV IS THE RESULT OF ERN TX CONVECTION YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THE MCV CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD IN MODEST SRN BRANCH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AMPLE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 J/KG DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD CU FIELD EAST OF ONGOING STORMS. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE WEAK INHIBITION...WITH ABSOLUTE CIN LESS THAN 25 J/KG. JACKSON VAD INDICATES 30KT WLY FLOW AT 3KM TO THE SW OF THE MCV. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 13 KFT SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 33508863 33508711 33468595 33138541 32648510 32088506 31778536 31638585 31578640 31638705 31748766 31808809 31898853 32218887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 19:22:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 14:22:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408221922.i7MJMlL21770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221920 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-222045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT...YELLOWSTONE AP AREA OF WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221920Z - 222045Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN MT AND NERN ID. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FROM ERN PORTION OF MTNS ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS OF WRN MT...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS YELLOWSTONE REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM LOW INVOF SMN TO INTERSECTION WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE INVOF LWT. STRONGEST REGIONAL SFC PRESSURE FALLS WERE ANALYZED AT 19Z ACROSS SWRN MT...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ID...AND NW CORNER OF WY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APCHG FROM PACIFIC NW. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES NWWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE WITH TIME OVER WHOLE REGION. EXPECT 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OVERSPREAD REGION. MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-750 J/KG ACROSS REGION BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z GTF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. BEST OVERLAP WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL MT SW-WNW OF LWT...WHERE STORMS MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT COULD DEVELOP INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 44591125 44571225 45101299 46091382 46891413 48061354 48111149 47671018 47050923 45500833 45090895 44650980 44491078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 20:49:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 15:49:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408222049.i7MKnSL18437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222047 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222047Z - 222245Z SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS NERN TX PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO ADJACENT NWRN OK...THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF TCU FROM SWRN LIPSCOMB COUNTY TX SWWD INTO CARSON COUNTY...ROUGHLY COLOCATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY CONFLUENCE LINE THAT HAS PERSISTED IN SFC ANALYSES SINCE 14Z. AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF CONVECTIVE/CONFLUENCE LINE IS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH PEAK HEATING OCCURRING ATTM AND MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM SERN PANHANDLE AND SW OK. RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS NOW PRACTICALLY UNCAPPED. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO 60S WHERE NOW IN UPPER 50S...AND TO INCREASE INTO MID-UPPER 60S WHERE NOW IN LOW 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...AND EACH MODEL REASONABLY GENERATES PRECIP IN THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE WITH SWD DISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MCV/TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN KS. PROFILER/VWP WINDS INDICATE 500 MB SPEED MAX OF 20-30 KT ACROSS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL OK...AND E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURVING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS...MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FOR STORM ROTATION...ESPECIALLY FOR DEVIANT SEWD CELL MOTIONS. EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35320128 35780083 36110058 36360037 36540015 36989985 37009953 36959922 36669902 35989933 35599949 35289987 35160046 35180107 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 22:04:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 17:04:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408222204.i7MM4kL10170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222202 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN NEB INTO NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222202Z - 230000Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY EWD THROUGH NERN NEB AND NW IA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN IA SWWD THROUGH NRN NEB. A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB NEWD TO N CNTRL NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE E-W ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO NW IA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB PORTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 90. FARTHER EAST INTO IA...BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONFLUENT ZONE HAS SLOWED HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO BE REACHED IN THIS AREA. FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE MARGINAL AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME ROTATION AT TIMES AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 42170037 42339878 43129571 42629512 41979683 41209920 40180035 40110112 41130060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 23:59:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 18:59:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408222359.i7MNxHL13148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222357 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-230130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT...FAR ERN ID...AND NWRN/WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774... VALID 222357Z - 230130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS ERN ID INTO WRN/NWRN WY WITH LOCALIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS MT AT 23Z. A 999MB SURFACE LOW OVER S-CENTRAL MT LIES ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN CTB AND HVR. MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3MB/2HR CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. FURTHER EAST...COOLER AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED INTO NERN MT WHERE A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXISTS FROM ROUGHLY 15S GGW ESEWD INTO FAR SWRN ND. IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND ACROSS NWRN CONUS WITH STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF MT/WY THROUGH 09Z. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO THIS POINT. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IN LWT VICINITY AT 2330Z WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS...HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THERE. OTHER NARROW BANDS OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ERN ID AND FAR S-CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING REFLECTIVITY SEGMENTS. WIND GUSTS TO 37KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THE TRAILING LINE AT PIH AT 2302Z...WITH LINE MOTION BETWEEN 35-40KT. THIS BAND MAY BRING LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS TO THE MTNS OF NWRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL JET OF 60-65 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ..BANACOS.. 08/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO... 43091242 45051286 45051286 47221241 47841227 48931220 48990720 45340762 43560814 42820902 42281101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 00:34:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 19:34:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408230034.i7N0YiL23612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230032 SDZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230032Z - 230230Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH 03Z. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...SO A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SD NWWD THROUGH NERN WY. THE 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSER RATES AND A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN EWD MOVING LINE OF STORMS OVER EXTREME SWRN SD THAT DEVELOPED IN A ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH WY. ELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW UNDERNEATH WLY 25 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS QUITE NARROW...AND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...CAPE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..DIAL.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 44320168 43500032 43050123 43120245 44460325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 07:16:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 02:16:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408230717.i7N7HAL22645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230714 KSZ000-OKZ000-230915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN VALID 230714Z - 230915Z NEED FOR WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KS INTO THE GAGE OK AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED...AS IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED GRADUAL VEERING OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD STRENGTHENS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF WICHITA BY 12Z. CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT WILL BE MARGINALIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES. WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...RISK OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAIN MAY BECOME PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW MOVING TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..KERR.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37279981 37579895 37829819 38119727 37999682 37379543 36759547 36409621 36369707 36159824 36349907 36509997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:01:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:01:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231901.i7NJ1xL17855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231859 NDZ000-MTZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231859Z - 232100Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ERN MT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD INTO WRN ND WITH THE TORNADO THREAT INCREASING BY 22Z. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SE MT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR SE MT INTO CNTRL SD. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S F...IS HELPING NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS ECNTRL MT. AS THESE STORMS SPREAD NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH EXISTS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO FAR WRN ND AND NW SD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 48560706 48810602 48350367 47520245 46780215 46040289 46000354 46080432 46670561 47270742 47740776 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:24:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:24:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231925.i7NJOxL30549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231922 SDZ000-NDZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ND AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231922Z - 232115Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD NWD INTO CENTRAL ND. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AT 19Z...DRYLINE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM FAR SERN MT SSWWD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE REGION. STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD ARE BOTH CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS FROM VTN-PIR-25 W MBG. AS STRONG UPPER VORT CENTER OVER E-CENTRAL MT CONTINUES EWD WITH ASSOCIATED 50KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING FROM WY INTO WRN SD...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A NNW-SSE LINE FROM THE ND BORDER ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-45KT AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTERSECTION OF NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER MAY PROVIDE A LOCAL FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL SRH AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD...WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL ND. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43960196 44870221 45710270 47710240 47849934 46079910 45539895 44899890 44089887 43559882 43129883 43059942 43130189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:25:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:25:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231925.i7NJPRL30787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231923 MOZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231923Z - 232030Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER MO WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZING OVER NW MO. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS WORKED OVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30 KT BEHIND THE LINE WHICH IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...THE SPEED OF THE LINE COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700 MB JET...WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38539386 39709388 40399313 40409158 38849140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:26:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:26:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231927.i7NJR1L31720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231922 SDZ000-NDZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ND AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231922Z - 232115Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD NWD INTO CENTRAL ND. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AT 19Z...DRYLINE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM FAR SERN MT SSWWD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE REGION. STRONG NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD ARE BOTH CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS FROM VTN-PIR-25 W MBG. AS STRONG UPPER VORT CENTER OVER E-CENTRAL MT CONTINUES EWD WITH ASSOCIATED 50KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING FROM WY INTO WRN SD...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A NNW-SSE LINE FROM THE ND BORDER ACROSS W-CENTRAL SD. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-45KT AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTERSECTION OF NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER MAY PROVIDE A LOCAL FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL SRH AND AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD...WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL ND. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 43960196 44870221 45710270 47710240 47849934 46079910 45539895 44899890 44089887 43559882 43129883 43059942 43130189  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 19:26:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 14:26:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408231927.i7NJR6L31863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231923 MOZ000-232030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231923Z - 232030Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER MO WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZING OVER NW MO. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS WORKED OVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30 KT BEHIND THE LINE WHICH IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...THE SPEED OF THE LINE COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700 MB JET...WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38539386 39709388 40399313 40409158 38849140  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:00:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:00:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232000.i7NK0sL19070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231958 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...AND FAR SERN SD...AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231958Z - 232200Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...AND FAR SERN SD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 30 SW LNK NNEWD TO 25 S SUX. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM A LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS SAME CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL IA...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN SD EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IA. PRESENCE OF LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MINIMAL CIN. LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS THE LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NEB TO CENTRAL IA...WITH AREA VAD PROFILES SHOWING VALUES OF 10-15 KT. FURTHER NORTH...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER ALONG THE WARM FRONT /25KT/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ACROSS SERN SD...NRN IA...AND SRN MN. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40599589 41189515 41739287 42169234 42789189 43449180 44019228 43989451 43889629 43779743 42989769 42519791 42149809 41509814 40689784 40419761 40419686 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:38:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:38:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232039.i7NKdIL07990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232037 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEB...AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232037Z - 232230Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WRN NEB SWD INTO NWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AT 2030Z...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE PRESENTLY EXTENDS N-S FROM ROUGHLY 60W VTN TO 30 NW IML AND SWD ACROSS FAR WRN KS. INSTABILITY VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG NEAR THE DRYLINE TO 3000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM BBW TO HLC. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSITY ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EWD AT ROUGHLY 15 KT AND ENCOUNTERS BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AREA PROFILES INDICATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 41170204 42020205 42950152 42959844 42029839 40259852 38919857 38990190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:52:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:52:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232052.i7NKqVL15112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232048 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NW OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232048Z - 232245Z ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM WRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXISTS ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH A CU FIELD EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION....FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CDS AT 00Z SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35119994 35800040 37490103 38430080 38589938 37169825 35539814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 22:32:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 17:32:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232233.i7NMXAL31888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232230 IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-240030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...EXTREME NRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232230Z - 240030Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA INTO SRN MN AND NERN SD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO OBSERVED LIFTING NWD THROUGH NRN IA AND INTO SERN SD. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY ROTATE...ESPECIALLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR UPDRAFT LONGEVITY. ALSO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 42979137 43259632 43809759 45739794 44149121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 22:36:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 17:36:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232237.i7NMb1L01110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232234 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-240030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/ERN KS/WRN AND SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232234Z - 240030Z PARTS OF ERN NEB/ERN KS AND WRN MO BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT NOW MOVING E ACROSS NRN MO ARCS FROM SW MO /NEAR SGF/ NNW ACROSS ERN KS INTO SE NEB /W OF LNK/. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS BOOSTED MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 2500 J/KG ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN WAKE OF MO UPPER VORT...BUILDING CU IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NE AND E CNTRL KS SUPPORT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWING STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OVER REGION. AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE /25-30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES IF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS DID INDEED FORM IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO SUPPORT INCREASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION LATER THIS EVENING. ..CORFIDI.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 36939391 36979492 37329578 37599625 38529709 39739755 41189771 41549659 39549504 38329373 37329310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 23:04:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 18:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408232304.i7NN4xL12592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232302 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-240030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT...CENTRAL/WRN ND...AND NRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 775... VALID 232302Z - 240030Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2230Z...ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR A 996MB SURFACE LOW IN NERN MT SEWD ACROSS SWRN ND JUST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP DRYLINE. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL ND...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/ NOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN ND. BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH OF BIS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60 IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE AND ONGOING CONVECTION. BIS RADAR SUGGESTS MOST INTENSE CONVECTION NOW OVER HETTINGER COUNTY WILL CONTINUE NEWD...AND INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS MORTON COUNTY ND BETWEEN 00-01Z. CHARACTER OF CONVECTIVE ROLLS NEAR BIS RADAR AND STRONG VEERING IN BIS VAD SUGGEST THESE SUPERCELLS WILL ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADO PRODUCTION BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 20F AT BIS IS A BIT HIGH...BUT OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL ND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. ..BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 44820277 48650495 48670075 44859887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 00:54:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 19:54:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240055.i7O0tBL22761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240053 SDZ000-NEZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN SD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NEB...EXTREME NE CO AND NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 776... VALID 240053Z - 240230Z THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM S CNTRL SD SWD THOUGH CNTRL AND SW NEB NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AREAS E OF WW 776 ACROSS E CNTRL NEB ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SWRN NEB. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE WITH AROUND 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN OVER TRIPP COUNTY IN SRN SD AND CUSTER COUNTY IN NEB AS OF 0035Z. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH SOME SWD PROPAGATION WHICH IS ALSO ENHANCING LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN W CNTRL NEB WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW MERGERS ARE OCCURRING. SEVERE THREAT IS MORE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY BRIEFLY AS THEY DEVELOP IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING OUTFLOWS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL NEB IS SURGING RAPIDLY EWD. THIS MIGHT PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING E OF WW 776 THIS EVENING AS IT INTERCEPTS THE STRONGER INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 41999971 40310029 40030144 41230159 44210030 44529878 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 01:17:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 20:17:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240117.i7O1HmL31839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240115 NDZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775... VALID 240115Z - 240245Z WW 775 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW FARTHER EAST FOR PARTS OF E CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND. THIS EVENING A WARM FROM EXTENDS ACROSS SRN ND NWWD AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN ND. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD NWD INTO S CNTRL ND WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONGEST FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE COOLER REGIME N OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD ALONG DRYLINE AND IN WARM SECTOR APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN INCREASING CAP AND STRONGEST FORCING LIFTING NWD WITH TIME. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46089993 47480082 48570065 48789947 47199815 46089851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 02:14:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 21:14:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240214.i7O2EaL22339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240211 MOZ000-KSZ000-240345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND PARTS OF EXTREME WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 777... VALID 240211Z - 240345Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...MAINLY WITH TRAINING LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SWRN MO NWWD THROUGH NERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NERN KS...WHERE STRONG LIFT ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED. LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR IS ENHANCED N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING STORMS AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TRAIN ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37959442 37839578 38409672 39089727 39499721 39029489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 02:21:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 21:21:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240221.i7O2LVL25436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240219 COR MOZ000-KSZ000-240345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND PARTS OF EXTREME WRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 777... VALID 240219Z - 240345Z CORRECTED FOR TYPE OF WATCH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...MAINLY WITH TRAINING LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS NERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SWRN MO NWWD THROUGH NERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NERN KS...WHERE STRONG LIFT ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED. LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR IS ENHANCED N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE ONGOING STORMS AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TRAIN ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37959442 37839578 38409672 39089727 39499721 39029489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 03:20:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 22:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240321.i7O3L3L15253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240318 MOZ000-KSZ000-240515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240318Z - 240515Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY SHIFT INTO PARTS OF WRN AND W CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WW IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO NWWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF CNTRL KS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF THE KS PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LIFT IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WITH TIME...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE MO PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS IN NE KS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD INTO MO ALONG AND N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37289289 38319482 39309440 39099249 38349200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 04:33:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 23:33:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240434.i7O4YLL09565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240432 NDZ000-240600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 778... VALID 240432Z - 240600Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 778. THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL ND AT AROUND 30 KT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STORMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE LINE ARE CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND POSE THE GREATER THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. SOME DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY MAY OCCUR AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MN BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46539937 47689871 48629857 48779775 46389769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 08:04:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 03:04:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408240804.i7O84wL11582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240802 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NE KS...SRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN VALID 240802Z - 241000Z LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING/ INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY NEAR TIGHTER 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI/ IOWA BORDER. BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS UPSTREAM ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHER STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ABOVE COLD POOL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...IN WAKE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/ EASTERN MISSOURI. THROUGH 12Z...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH MO AND OMAHA NEB...INTO AREAS OF IOWA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES. FORCING ON NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION/ORGANIZATION OF ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CAPE WILL REMAIN LARGE AS INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2 INCHES...INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME EXCESSIVE IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION. ..KERR.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 40849722 41149596 41559540 41569390 41019317 40399326 40289367 39799472 39879559 39989623 40119727 40349757 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 17:09:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 12:09:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408241710.i7OHALL13865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241708 MOZ000-ILZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...FAR SE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241708Z - 241915Z A HAIL THREAT AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MO AND FAR SE KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION MOVES SWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS IS YIELDING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 40 KT ACROSS NE KS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING A STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILE BELOW 700 MB RESULTING IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PRESENT ACROSS NRN OK...SRN KS AND CNTRL MO. THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE LINE...MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 38729173 37909506 37669521 36739486 36579399 36939204 37529009 38309020 38789084 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 18:14:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 13:14:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408241815.i7OIFJL18514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241813 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IL...WRN IND...SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241813Z - 242015Z HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL AND NWRN IND. IN ADDITION...A LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN MO. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR SRN MO AND SW IL. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SRN MO AND THE SRN HALF OF IL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...FUELING A LINEAR MCS ACROSS SRN MO. A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED FROM NE IL EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN MO. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN NERN IL SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR WHICH EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN MO. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN IL AND SERN MO. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS THREAT BEING ENHANCED AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 40 KT PUNCHES EWD OUT OF NERN MO INTO CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 36619125 36889307 37629304 38319120 39378970 40488877 41658862 42048839 42108745 41628669 40558666 38788762 37578912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 22:28:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 17:28:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408242229.i7OMT6L04246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242226 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN KS INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242226Z - 250100Z PORTIONS OF N CNTRL AND NE KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NE KS...SERN NEB AND NRN MO...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS NWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST E OF GREAT BEND. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 90F. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF N CNTRL KS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO ENHANCED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE WEAK LOW IN CNTRL KS WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED TO SELY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NERN KS...SE NEB AND NRN MO AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 08/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 37939595 38439698 38369851 38729902 39409847 40309633 40349468 39559426 38669480 38189521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 03:43:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 22:43:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250343.i7P3hpL10342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250341 NEZ000-250545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250341Z - 250545Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD CNTRL NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR AINSWORTH IN N CNTRL NEB SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL IN SW NEB IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 30 KT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE NEW STORMS. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY INTERCEPTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH MAY ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40410172 41570024 42869916 41519783 40419964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 04:49:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 23:49:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250449.i7P4naL05192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250447 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 250447Z - 250645Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS...SE NEB AND NRN MO WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING NEWD WITH TIME. THIS EVENING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS NWWD INTO CNTRL KS. A SWLY 30-40 KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS...NRN MO AND SERN NEB. THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY N OF INTERSTATE 70. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THIS LINE IS LOWER. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWD DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SETTLE SWD. STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND LIKELY NOT REALIZING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR BELOW 1 KM. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR FROM 1 TO 6 KM IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR STORM TO TAKE ON OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38799271 38759471 38729701 39669728 40459703 40559489 40509265 39709255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 06:46:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 01:46:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250646.i7P6kXL12488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250644 IAZ000-NEZ000-250815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250644Z - 250815Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH ATTM...THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW. A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 35 W EAR EWD AT 30-35 KT THROUGH S CENTRAL NEB. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED WWD INTO NERN CO. MECHANISM FOR LIFT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR...THOUGH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT SPREADING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE MAIN LIFT FOR CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE ROOTED AROUND 800 MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN AROUND 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. STORMS ARE LIKELY NOT REALIZING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE CAP APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FURTHER EAST FROM NRN MO NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND UNLESS COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ..IMY.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40259897 40849975 41489979 42159838 42369635 40919668 40299821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 07:17:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 02:17:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408250718.i7P7INL23724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250714 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780... VALID 250714Z - 250745Z WW 780 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN NERN MO...NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NRN KS EWD INTO CENTRAL MO. VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA INDICATED THAT A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SW...AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM UPDRAFT BASES ARE NEAR 850 MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION. MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND THE DEEP SWLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED BOWING STRUCTURES...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SINCE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...NO ADDITIONAL WW ARE ANTICIPATED. ..IMY.. 08/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39329259 39669481 40299519 40579503 40669338 40509230  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 00:47:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 19:47:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270048.i7R0m7L03644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270045 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN/SWRN WI SWWD INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788... VALID 270045Z - 270215Z IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N OF LSE SWWD TO E-CNTRL NEB /NEAR OMA/ AND THEN SWD INTO NERN KS. AN ADDITIONAL MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARY IS ALSO PRESENT FROM NW OF DSM EWD INTO E-CNTRL IA N OF DVN. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL IA ALONG/JUST E OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT. DOMINANT STORM REMAINS LARGE SUPERCELL OVER TAYLOR COUNTY IA WHILE OTHER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED N/NW OF DSM. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENENCE OF THESE SUPERCELLS /PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45KTS. MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED WINDS INVOF AFOREMENTIONED W-E BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2/ ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL IA...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN: 1) AVOID DISRUPTIVE INTERACTIONS WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS AND/OR 2) INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG SECONDARY BOUNDARY. EXPECT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 43929270 43908867 39939399 39969779 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 02:14:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 21:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270216.i7R2GtL04903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270213 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-270315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / CNTRL AND ERN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788... VALID 270213Z - 270315Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE EXPIRING TORNADO WATCH 788. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED FROM MORE DISCRETE ELEMENTS INTO CLUSTERS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF EXPANDING/MERGING COLD POOLS. STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED OUTFLOW DOMINANCE OF ONGOING STORMS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING OBSERVED ON THE DVN VWP...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRENGTHENING CAP AND INCREASED COLD POOL PRODUCTION WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40119557 43899115 43878761 40039227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 04:55:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 23:55:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270456.i7R4u1L32625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270453 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-270630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270453Z - 270630Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES HAS EVOLVED FROM CNTRL WI SWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN MO. WHILE MAJORITY OF MCS WILL REMAIN IN WW 789 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOWING SEGMENT OVER JACKSON COUNTY IA/JO DAVIESS COUNTY IL WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WITHIN THE HOUR AND APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY AROUND 0630Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS NRN IL REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF PLAN VIEW RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING CAP ACROSS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUS...PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOW GIVEN THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOMMODATE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42148903 42668838 42718763 42058706 41338738 40778775 40978891 41398995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 06:41:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 01:41:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270642.i7R6gAL02610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270639 MIZ000-270745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270639Z - 270745Z NRN UPPER MI N OF WW 790 IS BEING MONITORED. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AS COMPARED TO POINTS FURTHER SW...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MI LAKESHORE INVOF MKG ATTM -- AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER STILL W OF THE LAKE. WITH LATEST GRR /GRAND RAPIDS MI/ VWP INDICATING ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY 30 TO 40 KT FLOW FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH MID-LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY EXTEND N OF WW 790 INTO NRN LOWER MI. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45768484 45468373 44538329 43848374 43688455 44158667 45418603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 06:51:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 01:51:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270652.i7R6qAL05636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270649 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-270745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO / SRN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789... VALID 270649Z - 270745Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW. LATEST RADAR SHOWS STRONGER / BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN LINE NOW MOVING INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 790. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW / PARTS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO. ALTHOUGH THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES ACROSS THIS REGION MAY OCCUR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL INVOF THE IA / MO BORDER. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40119419 40549428 41079156 42038964 43668833 43758723 40079161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 09:37:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 04:37:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408270938.i7R9cdL30641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270936 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-271100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL / NWRN IN / SRN HALF OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 790... VALID 270936Z - 271100Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WITH NEW WW POSSIBLY REQUIRED INTO E CENTRAL AND SERN LOWER MI. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NRN LOWER MI SSWWD TO SRN LK MI...AND THEN SWWD TO NERN MO / SERN IA. ALTHOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI ATTM. WHILE ASOS-OBSERVED PEAK WINDS HAVE REMAINED AOB 40 KT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI...SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FURTHER S...ALONG WITH A GUST TO 49 KT OBSERVED AT MKG /MUSKEGON MI/ AROUND 09Z. GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT IT APPEARS THAT KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN LOWER MI IS SIMILAR TO THAT FURTHER W...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXPAND EWD REQUIRING NEW WW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40819079 40938928 42148742 43628628 44178532 43998291 43078239 41698354 41748444 41938551 40168780 40159156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 14:25:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 09:25:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271426.i7REQYL24630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271424 ILZ000-MOZ000-271600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO AND WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271424Z - 271600Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL MO AND WRN IL SHORTLY. TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL MO THIS MORNING WITH INTENSITY GRADUALLY INCREASING PER LATEST VIL COMPOSITE LOOP. THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATER TODAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED AND SHOULD POSE PRIMARILY A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THEREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39469344 39819003 38818944 37889281 37939441 39029444 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 17:12:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:12:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271713.i7RHD9L25861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271710 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-271945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MI...NWRN OH...NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271710Z - 271945Z SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF IND...NWRN OH...AND EXTREME SERN MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED... GREATER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT MOVING INTO LOWER MI LATER TODAY. BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...APPARENTLY LINKED TO TRAILING PORTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LWR MI AND ONTARIO...HAS PROMPTED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND AND NWRN OH LAST HOUR. EXPECT RELATIVELY WEAK CAP AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE PULSE OR MULTICELL UPDRAFTS MIGHT PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. AT THIS TIME A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 41978369 41428260 40188555 40598681 41358521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 17:41:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:41:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271742.i7RHg9L09609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271739 MIZ000-271945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271739Z - 271945Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SRN HALF OF LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS MEAGER AMIDST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS ROUGHLY NE-SW ORIENTED MDT CU ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT. MODIFIED 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...WITH MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG PER 17Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY ON FRINGE OF STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..GUYER.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 43638623 43808499 43858336 43938270 43168252 42308308 42068361 41938477 41908579 41948619 42548601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 18:09:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 13:09:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408271809.i7RI9wL25085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271807 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 791... VALID 271807Z - 272000Z DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WW 791 CONTINUES BELOW SEVERE LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS REMAIN IN RATHER WARM AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THUS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL. STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MO AND ERN KS WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG. SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESE TO WNW ACROSS CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ONLY SLOW SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP OCCURRING NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NWRN MO...AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER KS...ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ABOUT 35-40KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER TODAY AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37749694 39339669 40629349 39959059 38848938 38378976 37849072 37459295 36729441 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 20:50:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 15:50:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408272051.i7RKplL16313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272049 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...793... VALID 272049Z - 272215Z EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND NWRN MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NRN MO INTO NERN KS...AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEST OF STL WWD AND NWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NWRN MO. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST FAVORABLE FOCUSED FORCING WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR FRONT AND OUTFLOW INTERSECTION TO THE NE OF MKC. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS BOTH WATCH AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS AND NRN/CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36889478 38469476 37879638 39389636 40869249 39399246 40148999 38549000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 21:11:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 16:11:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408272112.i7RLCUL27215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272110 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-272315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/FAR NE MO INTO NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272110Z - 272315Z AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FROM SCNTRL/SE IA...FAR NE MO...AND PERHAPS NW IL REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL. SYNOPTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO...WHILE AIRMASS ACROSS FAR NE MO/NW IL HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS. TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AS BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BASED ABOVE SURFACE OWING TO REMNANT COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BASED CINH. MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR /SUPPORTED BY 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. AIRMASS RECOVERY INTO NW IL WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING SWLY LLJ THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40669385 41119393 41649308 42149115 41978982 41478897 40688910 39839082 39869173 40009218 40289263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 21:55:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 16:55:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408272156.i7RLulL16719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272154 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272154Z - 272330Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM JUST E ICT SWWD TO W OF END TO NEAR LTS. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WHICH IS PRECEEDING STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....WELL MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALL SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 08/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB... 37419763 38049685 37779604 33759907 33619980 34320005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 01:33:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 20:33:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408280134.i7S1YKL31018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280131 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...793... VALID 280131Z - 280230Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST 02Z...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NRN MO INTO NERN KS ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIRMASS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS/ IS EXPECTED TO EXIST PAST 02Z GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF INSTABILITY AXIS. EWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT/ WHICH EXTENDS FROM N OR NE OF SZL TO S OF TBN. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS SAME AREA OWING TO: 1) SLOW FRONTAL MOTION...2) VERY MOIST INFLOW AIRMASS... AND 3) POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND/OR BACK-BUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 08/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39309650 40969244 38669246 37919483 37889638 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 03:08:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 22:08:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408280309.i7S39JL31850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280306 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794... VALID 280306Z - 280400Z ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND WW 794 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN COLD POOL PRODUCTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS SE OF ICT AND FROM SW OF END TO NEAR CSM. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING/COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS BEYOND 04Z...A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 08/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB... 34430004 35939892 37689716 38089653 38009552 34469845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:12:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:12:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291914.i7TJE5L25783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291911 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291911Z - 292115Z ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRH HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CU FIELD WITHIN CONFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH FROM FAR ECNTRL NM THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z AMA/RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEGLIGIBLE CINH IN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500-2000 J/KG/ ALREADY IN PLACE. GIVEN S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS OF 25-30 KTS...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY/FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER SUGGEST LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COMBINATION OF NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND NON-DESCRIPT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN ISOLD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 34910411 35520401 36980223 38430125 38710051 38189976 36380017 34290101 33870131 33910294 34410384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:45:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:45:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291948.i7TJmRL05552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291944 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291944Z - 292145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU FIELD CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INVOF SFC WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/ND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG IN AXIS ALONG/EAST OF DVL-JMS-ABR CORRIDOR. AIDED BY MODERATE W/NW WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-16C TO -18C/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48919925 48969825 48859584 48159513 45969489 44499496 43829584 43789799 43819883 45319891 47079887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:47:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:47:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291948.i7TJmSL05557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291946 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 291946Z - 292145Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SETS IN. LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:47:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291948.i7TJmoL05701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291944 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291944Z - 292145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU FIELD CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INVOF SFC WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/ND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG IN AXIS ALONG/EAST OF DVL-JMS-ABR CORRIDOR. AIDED BY MODERATE W/NW WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-16C TO -18C/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48919925 48969825 48859584 48159513 45969489 44499496 43829584 43789799 43819883 45319891 47079887  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:48:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291950.i7TJoKL06526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291946 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 291946Z - 292145Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SETS IN. LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 19:48:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 14:48:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408291951.i7TJpjL06844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291946 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...VT...NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 291946Z - 292145Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF WATCH 795 AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE WATCH ISSUANCE...ONE CELL CROSSED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN NH...THE OTHER ISOLD CELL DEVELOPED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND WAS NOW WEAKENING ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY. BROKEN BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A SW-NE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WRN/NRN NY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CELLS...OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WERE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NERN NY AND NWRN VT. AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO THE CORE OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A FEW MORE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS NERN/ERN NY AND VT BEFORE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SETS IN. LACK OF FORCING ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM SRN TIER OF NY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA...SUGGEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42027878 44627771 44587053 41977216  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 22:14:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:14:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408292216.i7TMG1L28635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292213 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-292345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY AND EXTREME NE PA INTO VT/NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 292213Z - 292345Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 795 WILL NOT NEED TO BE REPLACED. HOWEVER WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LOCALLY...NAMELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NY INTO VT/NH. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...AIRMASS REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH BACKGROUND WIND PROFILES REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42007896 44647751 44617058 43997098 43087371 42517500 42047557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 22:34:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408292235.i7TMZjL02592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292233 NCZ000-SCZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 796... VALID 292233Z - 300030Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES CONTINUES NE OF CENTER OF GASTON AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL END FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION AS CENTER OF SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OVER ERN NC. AREAS NE OF WW 796 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW. MEANWHILE WW 796 SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE WITH PASSAGE OF CYCLONE CORE. AVAILABLE VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN QUADRANT OF GASTON. MOST FAVORED AREA BASED ON SFC MESOANALYSIS WILL BE INVOF AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THAT EXTENDS FROM TC CENTER NNEWD NEAR THE LINE LBT...POB...LHZ. ISALLOBARIC AXIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO PRONOUNCED/QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE...WHERE MAXIMA OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE EACH ARE INDICATED. ANY DISCRETE STORM INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN THEIR MESOCYCLONES AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER W. MLCAPE VARIES FROM ABOUT 400-1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF ERN NC NE OF CENTER...WITH AXIS ALSO LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO PRESSURE FALL/TROUGH LINE. BUOYANCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BECAUSE OF WEAK DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER SFC BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW LCL. MEANWHILE...AS CYCLONE CENTER APCHS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER AREA NE OF WW. THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS SHOULD YIELD TORNADO THREAT THERE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW PRESENT PROBABILITY WITHIN WW. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 22:38:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 17:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408292239.i7TMdtL04081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292236 COR NCZ000-SCZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796... VALID 292236Z - 300030Z CORRECTED FOR WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES CONTINUES NE OF CENTER OF GASTON AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL END FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION AS CENTER OF SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OVER ERN NC. AREAS NE OF WW 796 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW. MEANWHILE WW 796 SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE WITH PASSAGE OF CYCLONE CORE. AVAILABLE VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NERN QUADRANT OF GASTON. MOST FAVORED AREA BASED ON SFC MESOANALYSIS WILL BE INVOF AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS THAT EXTENDS FROM TC CENTER NNEWD NEAR THE LINE LBT...POB...LHZ. ISALLOBARIC AXIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO PRONOUNCED/QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE...WHERE MAXIMA OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE EACH ARE INDICATED. ANY DISCRETE STORM INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN THEIR MESOCYCLONES AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING INTO MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER W. MLCAPE VARIES FROM ABOUT 400-1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF ERN NC NE OF CENTER...WITH AXIS ALSO LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO PRESSURE FALL/TROUGH LINE. BUOYANCY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BECAUSE OF WEAK DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER SFC BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW LCL. MEANWHILE...AS CYCLONE CENTER APCHS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER AREA NE OF WW. THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS SHOULD YIELD TORNADO THREAT THERE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW PRESENT PROBABILITY WITHIN WW. ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 01:14:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 20:14:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408300116.i7U1GFL22286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300113 NCZ000-SCZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796... VALID 300113Z - 300245Z MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC. HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUCH THAT WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE. PARTIAL SPIRAL BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM OFFSHORE ONSLOW COUNTY NWWD TOWARD JOHNSTON COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS AWAY FROM CIRCULATION CORE...THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION OF GASTON -- I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 100-250 J/KG BASED ON MHX RAOB AND VWP FROM RDU/MHX REGIONS. MAIN AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AND PRESSURE FALL AXIS NEAR POB...LHZ...60 E DAN LINE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS OR MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SPIRAL BAND MOVE THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD SERVE AS AXIS OF ANY REMAINING TORNADO PROBABILITIES. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS WEAKENING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT DECREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF GASTON. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 16:09:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 11:09:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408301612.i7UGCrL16095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301607 NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-301800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN VA...NERN NC...SRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301607Z - 301800Z CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER SRN VA IN ADVANCE OF TD GASTON. 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH CG LIGHTNING DEVELOPING OVER SRN VA TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TD GASTON...WITHIN BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA. STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DENSE CLOUDS ATTENDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM AKQ SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING A VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SUPERCELLS. CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NC...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RNK... 35567681 36347696 36727767 36727826 37187862 37847835 38437769 38417639 37557594 36557576 35817551 35367630 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 19:04:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 14:04:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408301906.i7UJ64L19905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301903 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301903Z - 302100Z ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TX AND ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. AS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AMA AND FDR WSR-88D DATA...OUTFLOW FROM REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WWD THROUGH NW TX/TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR N TX. COMBINED WITH MODERATE HEATING/WEAK INHIBITION...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS IN NON-OVERTURNED AIRMASS OF PORTIONS OF NW TX/FAR ERN NM...WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY INVOF CAP ROCK REGION OF NW TX WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/...PULSE-TYPE SEVERE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE HAZARDS...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 36610498 36700330 36650199 35580192 34820118 34099967 33049951 32369989 31840035 32050203 32930411 34960497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 19:08:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 14:08:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408301909.i7UJ9eL22498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301906 VAZ000-NCZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN VA...NERN NC...SRN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 797... VALID 301906Z - 302100Z SEVERAL BANDS OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN VA AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TD GASTON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY NC...WITH WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE TIDEWATER REGION. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. VAD PROFILE FROM KAKQ CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SUPERCELLS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38187844 36817848 36387561 37817564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 22:43:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 17:43:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408302244.i7UMiTL19332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302240 VAZ000-NCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-310045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN VA...PORTIONS SERN MD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 797... VALID 302240Z - 310045Z REMNANTS OF TC GASTON -- CENTERED OVER SURREY COUNTY VA AS OF 22Z -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF WW NNW THROUGH ESE OF CIRCULATION CENTER -- COMPRISING SECTOR WITH MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR -- SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MD. HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUCH THAT WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD FROM LOW ACROSS SRN TIP DELMARVA PENINSULA. AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AHEAD OF LOW CENTER...THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE LOSING BAROCLINICITY BECAUSE OF 1. ABUNDANT PRECIP ON BOTH SIDES AND 2. LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. PRESSURE FALL AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS ACCOMACK COUNTY VA AND AS SUCH DENOTES MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF LOW DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER A SMALL SECTOR OF NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION OF GASTON. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS ESTIMATED N OF SFC TROUGH...BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NEWD SHIFT OF VWP TRENDS FROM AKQ. MAIN AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS ALONG AND N OF SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AND INVOF PRESSURE FALL AXIS...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS/MINI-SUPERCELLS MOVE THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR. AREA BETWEEN TROUGH AND ISALLOBARIC AXIS SHOULD SERVE AS MAX OF ANY REMAINING TORNADO PROBABILITIES. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS WEAKENING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT DECREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF CYCLONE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PHI... 36367558 36757846 38237848 37807562 38057721 38277676 38457569 38477506 38187507 37877537 37687558 37807564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 19:53:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 14:53:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200408311954.i7VJsuL32020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311951 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-312145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311951Z - 312145Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS OF ECENTRAL AZ...CENTRAL/WCENTRAL NM AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS OF SCENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO E-W ORIENTED LINES AS THEY MOVE SWD OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER 20 KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -11 TO -12 DEG C AT 500 MB. THESE THERMODYNAMICS ABOVE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR LINEAR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS...THE OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR THREAT. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 08/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31380970 33021098 34491032 34710738 33860502 32060449 WWWW