[HWOLOT] HWOLOT

[HWOLOT at goshenarc.org]

FLUS43 KLOT 211553 AAC
HWOLOT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1045 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-221100-
BENTON-BOONE-COOK-DE KALB-DU PAGE-FORD-GRUNDY-IROQUOIS-JASPER-
KANE-KANKAKEE-KENDALL-LA SALLE-LAKE-LAKE IN-LEE-LIVINGSTON-
MCHENRY-NEWTON-OGLE-PORTER-WILL-WINNEBAGO-
1045 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS A 
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH HAS 
TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REDEVELOP IN AREAS WEST OF 
INTERSTATE 39 AFTER 2 PM...AND FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 39 AFTER 
4 PM.  THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT 
TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 
MPH...HAIL THAT IS NICKEL SIZE OR LARGER...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION... 
THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.  

AS A RESULT...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT 
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DAVENPORT IOWA TO PONTIAC ILLINOIS TO 
VALPARAISO INDIANA...WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS 
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SEPARATE RELATIVELY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH 
FROM WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IN 
ADDITION...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND 
SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALSO 
EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT 
PUSHES TROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TEMPORARILY ENDS THE STORM THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

$$

LMZ740>746-766-221100-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
ISLAND-NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-MICHIGAN CITY
TO NEW BUFFALO-LAKE MICHIGAN-
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE 
AREA.  

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL INDIANA 
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY.  THIS FRONT WILL 
SEPARATE RELATIVELY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARM AND STICKY AIR 
TO THE SOUTH.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE 
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN THE UNSTABLE AIR 
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. 

THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL... 
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.   


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND 
SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALSO 
EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT 
PUSHES TROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TEMPORARILY ENDS THE STORM THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)

$$

STEFKOVICH/PIETRYCHA